Nick Messenger

Sr. Economist at Ohio River Valley Institute | PhD, Agricultural, Environmental, & Development Economics @OhioState | Views my own

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

Governments usually aren’t great at picking winners, historically. But losers are really good at picking their governments. Thanks to @thehill for running my op ed today, based on our new analysis of Louisiana’s industrial tax exemption program. https://t.co/uvBCFnrha8

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

I don’t get the fuss over the reflecting pool by the Abearham Lincoln Memorial??

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

@beckjason Montero in Houston and JV back in Detroit for the home crowd.

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

@JavierBlas A deal is coming this time, for sure. Believe me. The other 49 times I was just spitballing.

[Steve Morris @stevemorris__]

They expect us to believe these results and not ask questions 🙄

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

re: Hormuz “leaking” stuff (i.e. a reported rise in dark transits)

First, a general comment: I can't stand random uncontextualized transit count figures and "oh you probably aren't counting this one"isms. Show me a time series and a list of which transits your counting specifically (to cross check against my list) or gtfo.

- there have always been dark transits
- there has been a notable uptick, as reported by Kpler, beginning late-May
- that dark transit uptick has been offset by far fewer "official" Iranian route passages
- traffic remains massively throttled, headline counts little changed
- also, this is still just functionally a stock draw at this stage so it doesn't change much.

PS: Murmurs of some fresh loadings (which could mean *production*) are much more promising, but we're still talking negligible figures and as with everything else they're being blown out of proportion.

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

@robin_j_brooks A significant issue that is difficult to predict is how much production will actually ramp. Producers won’t bring low margin assets online if Washington keeps broadcasting an imminent resolution. But if a resolution doesn’t materialize and the inventories and reserves draw down…

[Bill Kristol @BillKristol]

The inflation rate in Biden's last month in office was 2.9%. Trump (supported by a Republican Congress) has driven it up to 4.2%.

Thank you, voters, for your attention to this matter.

https://t.co/2BWtpX5aEf

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

A lot of “economists” with too strong of faith in their own prior beliefs are going to look pretty dumb in the next few months.

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

@HicksCBER It’s been quite fun watching some folks try and wishcast this away as not a problem. There is no way to spin that energy, goods and services are more expensive now than in February. Laughable that some “economists” seem intent on trying.

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

@RonDeSantis Who controls Congress??

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

@robin_j_brooks I also think simply saying “it’s not going to $200” isn’t the full consumer story. The SPR drawdown means eventually it has to be rebought. The war has likely caused a longer term but modest rise in oil prices compared to if it hadn’t happened. $2.50 gas isn’t coming back soon

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

@robin_j_brooks This is just commercial inventories. Look at what’s coming out of the ground. There has not magically been a bunch of new production to make up the shortfall. You can’t say anything with certainty about what will or won’t happen in the future based on this…

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

@MarhelmData Is this useful given we don’t know how much (or if? Or when?) China could release reserves?

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

@gbrew24 Maybe the 63rd day of “bridging the final gaps” during the “ceasefire” will be the charm.

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

@guy_laron @gbrew24 You’re claiming 1000 secret ships worth of oil arrived at global ports and their oil specifically was not recorded for some reason? Also, given shipping insurance worries, wouldn’t companies logically actually want to be broadcasting more successful transits?

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

@SenRickScott Didn’t you just vote for tax cuts and the President wants a $1 trillion military budget?

“We need to cut all the programs I don’t personally like” Unserious.

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

@MudHens

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

My dad and I bonded over the Tigers. He passed away from cancer in 2019 and I just bought tickets for my 2.5 year old son and I to see @JustinVerlander tomorrow. Will be the only Tiger that all three of us see in person, ever. Can’t wait.

[Toledo Mud Hens @MudHens]

Limited seats remaining for tomorrow's game 👀

Get yours now to see three-time CY Young Award winner, Justin Verlander make his second rehab start at Fifth Third Field!

🎟️: https://t.co/h4WsP3iUsG

*Subject to change.

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

I am often critical of JobsOhio and the corporate welfare model of economic development. But I also try to call balls and strikes and, on the surface, this approach seems like a big step in a better direction for JobsOhio. https://t.co/qkK3VPe7EA

[Nick Messenger @_nickmessenger]

@VandyonTigers This is a lot of word salad with a made up argument. The market for talent is roughly the same for every team, based on control. Harris wasn’t pulling random numbers out of a hat.

And *gasp* he knows roughly what Riley and Dylan’s fair market number is. And so do they.