生财猫

18年进圈。

[magnolia @0xmagnolia]

本金越少越要减少试错。你的本金是有限的，不能浪费在无止境的PVP中。

你就跟踪聪明钱,带入他的视角，打开盈亏表，为什么会亏钱，为什么又会盈利。

不停复盘总结,直到形成自己的交易逻辑。

没有人生来就会交易，会归纳总结才是。

[电鱼哥专注SpaceX @iiiinvest]

我个人体感，这波半导体存储行情，还是消灭了不少散户的，最近感觉X上氛围都弱了很多。

年初的黄金白银，年中的存储，一茬韭菜一年割2波，太惨了！

兄弟们，永远记住：钱不会凭空变多，只是换了人！

[雕刻 @diaoke]

这个世界的几乎所有资产，本质都是庞。

不要给自己洗脑什么叙事，人类文明也好，shit meme也罢，所有资产永远都是“先信吃肉，后信喝汤，真信买单”。

无论叙事再牛逼，只要没有后续资金接盘了，就只有断头铡一条路。就像这次存储，你别管叙事是什么，你只要看到你家楼下大爷、商k小姐、全职宝妈都把钱丢进去了，就知道无论如何都要跑路，市场里已经没有后续资金接盘了。

决定资产价格的永远不是已经在车上的人，而是没有在车上的、持有流动性的人。

[magnolia @0xmagnolia]

嘿，防止你未来再错过 $BOME $TRUMP 这样的币，来提醒你下此类币的特点。

1.首先池子要超级无敌大，流动性足以容纳各方做市商进来做市，也方便各大交易所下场抢筹码。 $BOME 最初是1万sol， $TRUMP 是1亿u。trump的池子是天花板级别，所以下一个大池子币，至少需要在当时主流一级代币的十倍及以上。

2.突发上线，打的就是措手不及，只与一个或者几个头部做市商勾兑 比如 @wintermute_t @jumptrading @JaneStreetGroup , 所以开局并不会给你大幅度回撤的机会。他的5min线是呈貔貅形态的。你只有1小时的时间拿到早期筹码，后期想赚大的只能上大仓位，博上交易所前的流动性。

3. 上宇宙所的必然性，当这个币虹吸了当时一级70%的交易量后，交易所不想上都不行，下场抢筹码。交易所是「流量 + 交易量」驱动的平台型生意。这么大的交易量，那它要不要上所吃手续费？（bome是三天上币安，trump是第二天上币安）

4. 发币dev，必须要在某行业是权威，而且是首次发币，必须是第一次，必须是！
因为会跟头部人员做好勾兑，专业性可以打消普通散户进场顾虑，无非谁先后接盘。

祝你未来拿到大结果。

[挖矿小企鹅｜进群私信 @Goupenguin]

真正的买点是极度痛苦的。
真正的卖点是极度不舍的。
你要是买完还特别自信地跟人装逼，那多半是要完，兄弟。

[憨厚的麦总 @Michael_Liu93]

好消息不断还跌就是顶，坏消息不断还涨就是底。

[电鱼哥专注SpaceX @iiiinvest]

经过这2次存储战役，兄弟们一定要牢记：

1、股价从来不反应事实，反应的是预期！
2、交易是交易，价值是价值，别混淆！
3、不要怕开单，想清楚逻辑就干！
4、交易永远靠的是体系，不是一个点而是一个面！
5、看对，做对，拿住，是交易成功的三道门槛，你越过去就是别人的门槛！
6、我是真的爱你！

👏🏻鼓掌！

[电鱼哥专注SpaceX @iiiinvest]

刚看到海力士财报后，再昨晚-9%的基础上盘后又暴跌-9%，现在又拉回来了。

这种盘面说明什么？

全他妈投机盘，这种投机盘绝不是底部，我之前说过底部要么爆量砸出来，类似美光财报那次上涨时的爆量。爆量意味着分歧，多空的大换手，只有这样才会把一方力量全部消耗！

要么磨底，这种更残忍。慢慢筑底让一方力量绝望后割肉离场！

总之，没有出现止盈信号，空头继续拿住！

[북극성 @PolarisLog]

X에서 사귄 중국인 형님이 보내신 글

==========

한국은 언제나 위기를 가장 먼저 감지하는 조기경보기인가

역대 3대 글로벌 금융위기를 되짚어 보면, 공교롭게도 한국 시장이 가장 먼저 흔들렸고 그 여파가 뒤늦게 전 세계로 번지는 패턴이 반복됐습니다.

- 1997년 아시아 금융위기: 원화가 가장 먼저 급락하며 KOSPI가 76% 폭락, 외환보유고가 바닥났습니다. 그로부터 약 12거래일 뒤 미국 증시가 지지선을 이탈하며 글로벌 하락장이 본격화됐습니다.

- 2000년 닷컴 버블 붕괴: 한국 반도체 업종이 세계보다 3개월 앞서 고점을 찍고 꺾였습니다. 이후 나스닥이 78% 폭락하며 테크 버블이 완전히 무너졌습니다.

- 2008년 서브프라임 모기지 사태: 한국 증시가 7월부터 먼저 대폭락을 시작했고, 약 한 달 반 뒤 리먼 브라더스가 파산하며 글로벌 금융시스템이 붕괴했습니다.

- 2026년…

[坡村_Sam 🌴 @samsg888]

这可能是今年最重要的一份财报。

大空头Burry 昨晚说了一句话，他说，英伟达的需求，大部分是假的。

而且在 933 美元加空了美光，在210美元加空了英伟达，还加空了费城半导体ETF。

他的原话是，英伟达当前和未来的大部分需求，不是真实终端客户驱动的，而是靠表外融资安排撑起来的，未来的营收大部分会通过循环融资来实现。

他还搬出了国际清算银行BIS的2026年报做证据，那份报告确实警告过，AI基建高度集中、部分靠债务融资、各方现金流互相交织。

翻译成人话就是，英伟达的繁荣是一个自己给自己输血的循环。它出2500亿给OpenAI做担保，OpenAI拿钱买它的芯片，它把这笔交易记成收入，收入好看股价涨，涨了更有钱继续给别人担保。这个循环转起来的时候是印钞机，一旦终端需求跟不上，就是绞索。

英伟达八月份就发财报。它的数据中心收入到底是真实的终端需求，还是循环交易刷出来的，财报的数字会说话。

这可能是今年最重要的一份财报。

[生财猫 @_shengcaimao]

@ABC 😆

[BBC NEWS na srpskom @bbcnasrpskom]

70 grama nade i velike borbe za život ❤️🐾
Mala Tiana, lemurka iz Zoološkog vrta Kali u Kolumbiji, rođena je sa svega 70 grama.
Zahvaljujući danonoćnoj nezi stručnjaka, posebnoj ishrani i plišanoj „majci“, ovo sićušno mladunče svakim danom postaje snažnije 💪

📷 Reuters

[憨厚的麦总 @Michael_Liu93]

最近两年在做跨市场交易，愈发理解投资得“从上到下”的做，就是你得先能够找到Beta，才能去试图找Alpha。说的更简单些，你得先在对的时间点，找到那个能起势的板块/赛道，再去找这个板块中能带来超额收益的公司/标的，择时和赛道的重要性远超单一标的的选择，而大部分社交媒体的讨论则都放在了后者。

贵金属见顶时，再盯着白银工业需求多旺盛也没意义；AI板块回调时，再盯着某个设备商是存储厂商的上游，扩厂需求并不受影响也没用；Meme泡沫戳破时，管你是总统发的币还是老牌og meme都得奔着归零去。

涨潮时船高普涨，退潮时则反之，很少能有独善其身的标的。多花时间在寻找和验证板块上涨的thesis，多思考在择时，对找alpha不能有太多执念。

[Timo @timotimo007]

投资和交易来说，似懂非懂是最可怕的，也是最容易亏钱的。不懂，就不做。真懂，就猛干。最怕似懂非懂，重仓猛干，把自己干熄火了。

[Yeon @yeon__]

Robinhood Chain Recap: June–July

Since mid-June, I’ve been following Robinhood’s official testnet, and there have honestly been a lot of ups and downs.

At the time, I got access to the official RPC through Popdev and started researching and trading memes being created on Robinhood Chain before the ecosystem became widely known.

In the beginning, I bought several tokens, including Democratize, CashCat, and Marian, while researching their narratives and the people connected to them.

I also looked into various narratives, including the political and business connections between Robinhood and Trump, as well as the direction in which Robinhood might expand the chain going forward.

As time passed, I compared the growth speed of each community and the potential for their narratives to expand. Among them, I concluded that CashCat had the strongest narrative.

Based on how quickly the community was forming, how widely the narrative was spreading, and its symbolic connection to Robinhood, I gradually increased my CashCat position until I held roughly 1.7% of the total supply.

After mainnet launched, the market cap fell from around 10M to 2M. During that period, I continued buying and selling across roughly four wallets while maintaining a total position of around 1.5% to 1.7%.

At the time, I thought that if no additional catalyst appeared, I might have to exit somewhere around the 10M to 20M range. Still, I decided to remain patient and wait as long as possible.

Then Robinhood’s CEO followed CashCat, followed by several people around him, and that marked the beginning of the real Robinhood Chain season.

I started gradually taking profits from around a 100M market cap, and by the time it reached approximately 220M, I had taken profit on most of my position, leaving only around 0.45% of the supply.

Then an unexpected variable appeared.

Noxa’s website suddenly went offline.

At first, I assumed it was simply maintenance or a temporary issue. However, contrary to expectations, Noxa announced that it was effectively ending active operations and would continue only in an archived form.

It also announced that it would give creators 100% of the fees instead of retaining its previous share.

On the surface, this could be viewed as a positive development because more revenue would go directly to creators.

Personally, however, I could not interpret it as bullish.

A platform generating a significant amount of fee revenue suddenly switched to archive mode, while it also became clear that the fee structure could be changed by the operator at any time.

There was also no sufficient explanation regarding the website shutdown or the decision to stop active operations.

In the end, I did not think the core issue was simply how much of the fees would go to creators.

Personally, I felt that Noxa’s response had seriously damaged the basis of trust I had in the platform and its operations.

When an unexpected variable appears in a trade and I cannot properly understand the situation, I tend to reduce risk first.

Based on that decision, I sold the rest of my CashCat position at around a 170M to 180M market cap.

After that, I also closed all of my Noxa-related positions, including 4663 and TERENCE.

One of the main narratives behind 4663 was that it had been created by a Noxa developer and had frequently been promoted by Noxa.

However, once Noxa had effectively ended active platform operations, I did not believe that narrative could continue in a healthy or sustainable way.

For that reason, I closed every position connected to Noxa.

Some people have said that I sold 4663 near the top, but in reality, I exited at around a 2.5M to 3M market cap.

I believed that the risk of the narrative being damaged was greater than the possibility of further upside.

After reassessing Robinhood Chain, it increasingly seemed to me that Robinhood’s CEO and other key figures were shifting their attention away from memes and toward RWAs, bonds, and tokenized stocks.

For now, I have only placed a few small speculative positions related to those narratives and am watching how things develop.

My approximate overall profits were:

CashCat: around $2M to $2.1M in total profit

Other tokens: around $50K to $100K in profit
(including 4663, 530A, and several others)
The biggest lesson I took from trading on Robinhood Chain was that deeply understanding a narrative and having the patience to wait is far more important than simply buying before everyone else.

At the same time, no matter how strong a token or its community may appear, if trust in the underlying platform and infrastructure collapses, the entire thesis needs to be reconsidered.

I was also reminded once again that when circumstances change, your judgment must change with them.

When an unexpected variable appears and I cannot fully understand the situation, reducing risk is better than continuing to force a hopeful interpretation.

I’ll probably be traveling on Monday, so I may not be able to trade much for a while.

Until then, I’ll likely trade on Base for a bit.

[Terry @RichTerry123]

这波存储，最后可能会让很多人创下人生最大的单笔亏损。
因为它同时具备三个最危险的特征：叙事完美、业绩爆发、估值看上去很低。越是这种股票，大家越敢重仓，甚至愿意上两倍、三倍杠杆。
但周期股的低估值，很多时候只是峰值利润造成的。现在看只有几倍PE，一旦价格和毛利率回归，才会发现自己买的其实并不便宜。
过去的锂矿、航运都一样。长期逻辑未必错，公司也未必差，错的是把特殊时期的暴利，当成了长期正常利润。
最危险的还不是第一次下跌，而是跌了以后觉得更便宜，继续加仓。很多人最大的亏损，往往不是来自最贵的股票，而是来自自己认为最便宜、最确定、最敢上仓位的股票。

[0xWizard @0xcryptowizard]

meme不会死，阴谋盘也不会。

就像 ico 和 defi 也没死一样。

但，引领新一轮趋势的，一定不能是大家耳熟能详的，这一点我很确定。

一定是新东西，我认为会类似 defi 真的能带来链上活跃和采用，否则不会有人信的。

[0xWizard @0xcryptowizard]

博弈局，top 玩家粉丝是个很好的观察指标。

serenity 这波是 ai 股观察指标，我转的这个推，他粉丝快速增长到90万附近停住，就是短期警示信号。

哪里是顶猜不了，但是博弈信号都差不多，上所接盘，杠杆率，情绪极度fomo全民赚钱，顶级玩家粉丝快速增长后停滞。

都是指标。

[Shirley | AI & Crypto @shirleyusy]

每次我重仓跑掉的股我几乎都不会再买，结果兄弟们总是老爱问我跌那么多买不买，这股是好股啊！

借和 @raylin51 聊的发一下，好股和好价格好趋势不是一件事