My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time.
He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha.
He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life."
He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett.
But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them.
Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does.
Enjoy!
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:00 The Kindest Thing
13:19 Trading vs. Investing
17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet
22:24 The Existential Risks of AI
29:54 The Nature of Trading
31:46 Bitcoin
35:55 Bubbles
42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ
46:00 Information Overload
47:07 Passion for Markets
50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation
54:18 The Workless World
56:03 Journalism
1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life
1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness
Qullamaggie on You Only Need to Trade 20-30% of the Year
“That’s what happens in good markets. You get these insane moves. You know, you literally can trade like 20-30% of a year—you just trade during periods when the markets are trending higher. Stocks are making moves like this.
This is like the best job ever. You can take vacation most of the time. I mean, you can’t really completely tune out markets. You always have to follow the markets, but you don’t have to do stuff every day. That’s why I think many people get confused by this business; they feel like they have to do things all the time.”
The key to great trading: stop judging yourself and stop forecasting. When conditions are bullish, act bullish; when they’re bearish, adjust. Trust your process. You’ll buy stocks that go to zero and sell some that go to infinity—the key is what you do in between. You will make many mistakes; you’ll never trade perfectly. You can only learn to perfectly trade your plan. Making mistakes is trading. Mitigating them is professional trading.
Elon Musk: Personality matters more than Talent
"The biggest mistake I made is to put too much of a weighting on somebody's talent and not much on their personality, it actually matters whether somebody has a good Heart"
Fun Facts to Know & Tell Your Friends: #Gold is performing neck-and-neck with the S&P 500 $SPX in the post-Bretton Woods fiat money era that began on August 15th, 1971. An ounce of gold can buy the same amount of the S&P 500 today as it could in 1971.
Most people fight seeing what’s true when it’s not what they want it to be. That’s bad, because it is more important to understand and deal with the bad stuff since the good stuff will take care of itself. #principleoftheday