@Camelliayang I first met you on the other side. Then on this side that I call home. Feel fortunate because I have no doubt we will meet soon again. ❤️
@MichaelAArouet I think he knows the history well enough. Poland should not dependent too much on neither of its big neighbors. We should play our own game having our own best interests in mind.
I made a 4D god's eye replay of the Iran strikes using public OSINT data.
When I turned on the orbital layer in worldview something jumped out.
You can see satellite passes stack up over the strike zones in the hours before & after impact. Everyone was watching. Some of them were overhead before it started.
American KH-11s and TOPAZ SAR. Russian BARS-M and Persona. Chinese Gaofen optical and SAR. Maxar WorldView Legion. Airbus Pleiades. Capella. ICEYE.
That's textbook behavior -- you collect right before for targeting, you strike, then you collect again for battle damage assessment. Just wild to see it all replayed in 3D like this.
The commercial constellation density is also striking. What used to be exclusive nation state capability is now mirrored by half a dozen commercial operators. The intelligence monopoly is over.
“beijing's silencee on Iran is the most patient & most devastating move on the board, China is watching america dismantle its own hegemony in real time while quietly inheriting every alliance washington burns, it just has to keep building & keep quiet”
this right here is the reason China stays quiet on Iran
everyone losing their mind asking where is Beijing while the US & Israel are bombing a major chinese energy partner and the answer is so brutal in its simplicity that most analysts miss it completely, the empire is eating itself alive and China is already building the replacementt
America just dragged the entire Middle East into a war for Israel & now Saudi arabia, UAE, kuwait & qatar are sitting in a room discussing pulling out of US contracts & canceling investment commitments
the Gulf states, the literal foundation of the petrodollar, the system that has kept the US dollar as world reserve currency since 1974 actively discussing the exit and Beijing did absolutely nothing to make that happen…Washington did it to itself
but here's what people miss: china saw this coming years ago and already laid the tracks, literally the belt & road Initiative has quietly wired 150 countries into c’hinese infrastructure, ports, railways, highways, fiber optic cables, power grids…while the western media barely covered it
Saudi Arabia started selling oil to China in yuan in 2023, that alone should have been front page news for a month, the BRICS just expanded to include Saudi arabia UAE and Iran in the samea bloc, China built CIPS as a direct alternative to SWIFT so the entire non western world can settle trade without ever touching the dollar, every single one of these moves was made before a single bomb fell on Iran
and then there's Africa…the youngest continent on earth, median age 19, projected to reach 2.5 billion people by 2050, the largest workforce the planet has ever seen & China understood 20y ago that whoever builds Africa's infrastructure owns the 21st century, while the US was spending 4 trillion dollars destroying Iraq & Afghanistan China was building railways in Kenya, dams in Ethiopia, ports in Djibouti, highways in Nigeria, tech hubs in Rwanda, stadiums, hospitals, government buildings, telecom networks powered by Huawei across the entire continent.. & they did it without firing a single bullet, no regime change, no sanctions, no lectures on democracy, just concrete steel, fiber optic and longterm contracts
so when people ask why China stays silent on Iran the answer is that silence is the strategy, every war America fights for Israel costs trillions, destabilizes energy markets, alienates Gulf partners and pushes the entire Global South closer to a system Beijing spent two decades building
the gulf states pivoting right now has zero to do with ideology, Washington turned their entire neighborhood into a warzone to serve Tel Aviv's regional strategy & then asked them to keep buying treasury bonds with a straight face….the math just stopped working and when the math stops working loyalty stops too
beijing's silencee on Iran is the most patient & most devastating move on the board, China is watching america dismantle its own hegemony in real time while quietly inheriting every alliance washington burns, it just has to keep building & keep quiet
Napoleon said nver interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake, Xi turned that into a 50y doctrine & right now it's paying off faster than even beijing expected
I accidentally discovered how to compress a month of research into 3 hours.
A founder at a YC company showed me his Claude setup. I thought he was just fast. Then I watched him build an entire go-to-market strategy for a market he'd never worked in before.
Here's exactly what he did:
First: he didn't ask Claude to "research the market."
He fed it 8 competitor landing pages, 3 earnings call transcripts, 12 customer reviews, and a Reddit thread of complaints.
Then he asked one question:
"What does every successful player in this market understand that their customers never say out loud?"
Not "summarize these." Not "analyze the competition."
The unspoken insight. The thing that takes founders 2 years of customer calls to figure out.
But the next part is what broke my brain.
He followed up with:
"Now show me the 3 assumptions this entire market is built on, and what would have to be true for each one to be wrong."
In 15 minutes he had the attack surface of an entire industry.
The blind spots. The fragile consensus. The opening nobody was talking about.
Most founders spend 6 months doing customer discovery just to find one of those.
Then he did something I've never seen before.
He asked:
"Write 5 questions a world-class investor would ask to destroy this business idea, then answer each one using only the evidence in these documents."
He spent the next 2 hours stress-testing every assumption. Every weak answer triggered a follow-up:
"What's the strongest version of this argument and where does it still break?"
By hour 3, he had a strategy deck that felt like it came from someone who'd spent a decade in the space.
The tool didn't change. The questions did.
Most people treat Claude like a faster Google.
These founders are using it like a thinking partner who has read everything and has no ego about being wrong.
The difference between 3 hours and 3 months isn't the amount of information.
It's knowing which questions actually matter.
Each time I say something about the Polish economic wonder, there are some frustrated folks arguing that it is due to EU subsidies paid by Germany.
Germany exports €100B+ to Poland each year, more than to China. No other country benefits more from the Polish boom than Germany.
I follow bc I believe them. Sometimes I am scared: maybe the load is too high or my technique is not right. Then I look at their face like a child’s looking at parent’s face in search of reassurance. I find it - in their confidence and calmness.
This is how it works with Tianhao.
To have good results at the gym with the coach is like with the therapist. First you need trust. Not the basic trust in their skills. A deeper trust: they can assess my body capabilities and make me believe I can do more than I think I can. When they push me I follow.
I love routines. This is one of my favorite routines in Shenzhen. My everyday breakfast. After workout. High protein. Delicious.
Steamed eggs with prawns.
Mapo tofu.
White cut chicken.
Steamed white fish.
Green vegetables.
Cauliflower.
Additions: bone broth, rice.
It Was Never About Iran or Venezuela: It’s About Weakening China, and It’s Brilliant
China’s economic ascent is tethered to a critical vulnerability: its reliance on foreign oil. Importing over 70% of its oil, China depends heavily on a few key suppliers. This reliance creates a strategic opportunity for the U.S.
By influencing Iran and Venezuela, two of the world’s top holders of oil reserves, the U.S. can exert direct or indirect influence over their trade partnerships, thereby tightening China’s energy supply.
Key Points:
• Venezuela: Ranked 1st globally, holding around 17–18% of the world’s proven oil reserves.
• Saudi Arabia: Ranked 2nd, holding about 15–16% of global reserves. Although an ally, their reserves are pivotal.
• Iran: Ranked 3rd, holding around 12% of the world’s proven oil reserves.
Combined, these three countries hold ~45% of the world’s proven oil reserves.
Strategic Moves with a Broader Aim
While the public narrative focuses on removing dictators, curbing drug trafficking, and neutralizing Iran’s nuclear threat, the overarching strategy is clear. Ensuring these nations are not under the influence of U.S. adversaries limits China’s ability to secure its energy needs.
Take Venezuela.
Yes, drug trafficking into the United States is a serious issue. But Mexico remains the primary corridor for narcotics entering America, and China has played a documented role in supplying precursor chemicals that fuel the fentanyl crisis. Neither country faced comparable military intervention. If drugs were the sole driver, the strategic map would look very different.
Now consider Iran.
Stopping nuclear proliferation is a legitimate national security objective. Yet North Korea already possesses nuclear weapons and continues advancing its missile capabilities. The United States has not pursued direct regime removal there. The difference is not the level of authoritarianism or even the nuclear threat. The difference is strategic energy leverage.
This strategic foresight is what makes the move consequential.
By focusing on two nations that sit atop massive oil reserves and that have served as energy lifelines to China, the U.S. does more than remove hostile regimes. It reshapes global energy influence.
The effect is subtle but powerful. Direct control is not required. Influence over leadership, trade policy, or export alignment can be enough to alter who benefits from nearly half of the world’s proven oil reserves.
While the world debates the immediate justifications for U.S. actions in Iran and Venezuela, the broader picture reveals a calculated effort to weaken America’s primary competitor.
Removing dictators matters.
Stopping drug pipelines matters.
Containing nuclear threats matters.
But the main plot is strategic pressure on China.
And seen through that lens, the move is not reckless.
It is deliberate.
And it is brilliant.
@RafaRamosBrito@ns The pleasure is mine! Polish Mafia? Well one cannot escape it ;) 🇵🇱 Keeping my fingers crossed for the Spanish Guerrilla as well! 🇪🇸