Major Abdi

Actuarial scientist & Mathematical wizard

[Abel🇪🇹 @absnowx]

🚨 Update: ENDF has reportedly captured over 2,000 TPLF fighters in Abiy Adi, Tembien.

[AbrahaBelai @abraha_belai]

I take TPLF’s warning seriously. Right from inception, TPLF had ‘fedayn’ units. A few insurgents disguised as peaceful residents would, for instance, enter Mekelle assassinate authorities and disappear into the night. They spread terror. We use to call them “Khmer Rouge,” after Cambodia’s murderous group in the ‘70s. TPLF murdered over 60,000 peaceful civilians for different reasons. TPLF today is on the verge of extinction. I’ve no doubt it will go back to its roots: terrorism that led it to seize power in 1991.

[Abel🇪🇹 @absnowx]

Update 🚨: Military attachés from various European, American, African and Asian countries have reportedly expressed support for the Ethiopian government’s ongoing military activities aimed at safeguarding the country’s sovereignty.

[Major Abdi @abdyguyo210]

RT @reda_getachew: I met and held a very candid discussion this evening with @EUSR_Weber and Ambassador Sofie of @EUinEthiopia on a range o…

[Conflict Zone @breaking_bre]

🚨 Isaias Miscalculation and Invasion

Last week, Eritrean forces drove deep into Ethiopian territory, reaching the Idaga Hamus area. It may turn out to be one of the costliest decisions of Isaias Afwerki’s rule.

Mekelle had fallen to ENDF & TPF forces, and the forces were shifting north toward Wukro. Asmara found itself facing a situation moving faster than anyone had planned for. Sending troops across the border may have been meant to build a defensive buffer, to shape the fighting, or to keep the war from reaching Eritrea’s own doorstep.

Why Asmara moved

The logic behind Eritrea’s advance may have been to establish a new buffer zone following the collapse of the Raya–Sekota front. With that front no longer providing the same strategic depth or acting as a barrier to further military movements, Eritrean regime may have calculated that pushing southward into Ethiopian territory was necessary to create an alternative perimeter. By pushing deep into Ethiopia, Isaias could create a buffer zone, buying time for exhausted, scattered TPLF forces to regroup and strike south again. His calculation, through the Tsimdo alliance, seems to have been that Addis Ababa was too stretched to respond. Isaias had likely judged it very unlikely that federal forces could reach the Eritrean border within two weeks.

Isaias also knows something he will never say aloud. If Ethiopian forces moved the same distance from Zalambessa into Eritrea, they would be roughly halfway to Asmara. For Isaias, that is the nightmare scenario, and the deep push into Idaga Hamus looks like an attempt to make sure the fighting never gets that close.

Why they pulled back

This may have been the first time Eritrean forces faced sustained drone warfare on this scale. Reports suggest that military columns were repeatedly struck along the route from Zalambessa to Idaga Hamus. Vehicles that once carried soldiers to the front may have become death traps, forcing survivors to abandon them and flee on foot. If these accounts are accurate, the scene bears a haunting resemblance to the 1991 “Highway of Death,” when Iraqi forces were devastated while retreating from Kuwait. It may well have been an African version of that grim episode.

Silence as the only option

Eritrea is also trapped in a diplomatic dilemma. With its forces reportedly operating some 60 kilometres inside another country’s territory, the regime in Asmara faces an uncomfortable choice: acknowledge the losses and risk exposing the scale and consequences of its invasion, or publicly condemn the strikes and invite questions about what its troops were doing so deep inside Ethiopia. Either response could deepen Isaias Afwerki’s diplomatic troubles.

[kebeba ambaye @kebeba1]

Eritrea’s intervention to reinforce rebels in Ethiopia is a fatal mistake. Ethiopian forces may not stop at the border until they drag the dictator Isaias from Asmara. He cannot attack and then return home to sit in peace. We will advance to eliminate the threat at its roots.

[DNATestKenya @DNATestKenya]

Get fast, accurate, and 100% confidential peace-of-mind paternity results from the comfort of your home

[Conflict Zone @breaking_bre]

🚨 More TPLF losses

[Crisis Group @CrisisGroup]

Pulling Ethiopia and Eritrea back from the brink of war should be the priority for all those interested in preventing a deadly chain of interconnected conflicts from snaking across the Horn of Africa and Red Sea regions.

It is not too late to avert disaster: https://t.co/BbEi844Utw

[Behiwot Tilahun🇪🇹 በህይወት ጥላሁን🇪🇹 @BehiwotTilahun]

🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹🫡🫡

[Sajid Nadeem @sajid_nadeem78]

On Sunday and Monday, several foreign diplomats met with the #Ethiopian Prime Minister to seek assurance that Ethiopia has no plans to invade Eritrea:

https://t.co/rCcqfrHcOv

[Sajid Nadeem @sajid_nadeem78]

This morning, ENDF entered #Zalambesa town, securing Ethiopian border with Eritrea.

[Abel🇪🇹 @absnowx]

🚨 Update: Axum, Shiraro and Zalambessa have reportedly come under the control of ENDF–TPF forces. 🇪🇹

[Abel🇪🇹 @absnowx]

🚨 Update: Army 17 division commander Hakhfen Welde Abraham has reportedly joined the TPF alongside his entire force.

[Felemawi @phelemawi]

The Economist warns Ethiopia and Eritrea are closer to open war than at any time since the 1998 to 2000 conflict that killed tens of thousands. That brink was built in Asmara. Isaias Afwerki and the PFDJ rule without elections or a free press and trap a generation in indefinite national service while they gamble with war. We in EBRF refuse to let one man send our youth to die for his power. A democratic Eritrea can negotiate peace and fair lawful arrangements with its neighbors. We have a plan for democratic transition through regime change in Asmara.

@KjetilTronvoll @RepJoeWilson @mrubin1971 @afric_insde
#EBRF #BlueRevolution #RegimeChange #Eritrea #PFDJ

[Major Abdi @abdyguyo210]

@SirakBahlbi However you support dictator Isayas ,you must deal with facts not your delusional or imaginery stories. Eritrea will definitely face the consequences of attempting to distabilize Ethiopia.

[Major Abdi @abdyguyo210]

@SirakBahlbi Eritrean troops deliberately breached Ethiopian border in support of TPLF and yet they are trying to play victim and that information is in public domain, why are you behaving as if you just arrived from jupiter? Giving a blind eye to an agressor who is playing victim is wrong

[intelynx @Intelynx]

🇨🇩 #DRC | Former president Kabila has launched the FRN, a new politico-military coalition replacing the AFC/M23. Kabila will lead it together with other AFC/M23 leaders. On Friday, he accused Kinshasa of corruption & military setbacks and criticised its minerals deal with the US.