Alan Brandt Malelo

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

I understand but applying the same logic or process to the upside would have produced an answer far higher than 126k last fall.

My main point is it's prudent to start adding some now. Buying the first daily close below the 200 week provide returns of 2,848% 2015-2018, 1475% 2018-2021, and 516% 2022-2025. Could you have done better ... yes. But those are still excellent returns.

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

@ColinTCrypto @BigCheds Agree possible but not probable. Reminds me of all those people waiting for $10k last cycle. Track record buying anywhere below 200 wk Ma is incredible.

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

I'm a big fan but I think reducing that cash cushion (to pay STRC dividends) so dramatically to pay off the bonds has created this swoon. I think management underestimated the value STRC holders assigned to knowing mstr had 18 months runway. Six months is not enough especially when crypto winters tend to last 12 months (history suggests 5 more months are left)

Unintended consequences were underestimated. I have confidence you and your team will correct this matter.

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

@AdamBLiv We just wicked below 200 week so run the #s from that price. Deep value started tonight.

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

@IIICapital Great read. Accumulate each time it revisits the 200 week MA (the signal). But 99% get distracted by the noise.

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

@AdamBLiv Great stats but they will be even better once we wick down to the 200 week MA. Patience for the next few months should provide even better upside.

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

@Dating_Dynamics @Moralityrevived What time is it in Hong Kong?

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

It depends on if you own bitcoin already, what % it is of your portfolio and how long you intend to hold it.
Assuming you own no bitcoin and are willing to hold it for 3-4 years I'd suggest buy $2k now and an additional $1k each month through Nov.
It's currently only 20% above its 200 week moving average so decent value. But probabilities suggest it goes down to touch the 200 week Ma over the next 1-9 months.
This gets you in the game at a decent price (in case it V bottoms) but lets you buy throughout the remaining 9 months of the typical length bear market.

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

@peruvian_bull Yikes

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

@PapiTrumpo Some truth in every joke.

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

@BitcoinRachy Your looking at it all wrong. You put 100% of that in bitcoin and your get $1560 (or more) per period by just buying bitcoin and lowering your time preference. Perspective is everything.

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

@KyleBuysBTC He has changed the company strategy dramatically the past 8 months. Unfortunately the stock will have a very hard time ever getting above 2 mnav if Saylor keeps selling ATM at 1.85 mnav.

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

Hard to argue Saylor thinks it's "viciously underpriced" when he just sold over half a billion dollars atm. Saylor selling at 1.85 mnav is capping the upside going forward. Numbers the past 8 months speak to this.

I'm a large long term holder but disappointed that Saylor won't let the stock run like before Nov 2024.

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

You should also point out to your followers that no altcoins ever outperform Bitcoin after their first cycle. This way they would be able to make better informed decisions on their allocations.

The market has shifted from altcoins and miners to Bitcoin and bitcoin treasury companies the past 12-18 months. Acknowledging this sooner rather than later will lead to increased returns.

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

The dividend was tens of millions yet they sold hundreds of millions ATM so it's clearly not simply to cover the dividend.

I think the stock outperforms the next decade but it's certainly not going to a 5-6 mnav (or even ever above 2-2.5) like last cycle if he continues to hit the atm at 1.85 like he did last week.

It's a different stock, with very different characteristics now.

Perhaps it's all very intentional (less vol for s&p inclusion)?

I heard him say he did not plan to hit atm much until it hit up to 2 and then he hits it at 1.85 so I was surprised how low an mnav he was willing to hit the atm at.

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

Im very long MSTR since 2020 but don't like the ratio of the past weeks sale. 90 % atm and mnav at only 1.85 is not ideal. These sales signal 1.85 is now "good enough" for Saylor to harvest premium which lowers the mnav upside potential as the peak bull market gets going in the next 4-6 months.

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

@MinNature_Meta @0_1_BTC Some refuse to do the homework. It's a paradigm shift most people will never see coming and think you just got lucky.

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

You would be doing your followers a bigger favor explaining how no coins out perform bitcoin on their second or third cycle. If you want outsize returns this cycle you need to research and invest in btc treasury companies and stablecoin related entities. The smart money has moved on from miners and alt coins.

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

@Breedlove22 Ask... "for those who bought a coffee did you like the price you paid today or the price you paid last year or 4 years ago better?" Those of you who did not like the price today need bitcoin. Personalize the message.

[Alan Brandt Malelo @abm382]

@lowIQ_leftcurve @ChrisMMillas That is why trump buying 2.5 billion is such a big deal. He is on team Bitcoin. Huge tailwind instead of headwind.