abmacro10

occasional thoughts on macro economics, trade ideas, the fourth turning and crypto.

[Stephen Stone - PhD Tricknologist @Stephen19718352]

I used to work with a guy who spent every free hour working on his 5.0 Mustang for drag racing (sanctioned stuff on actual tracks) and had become kind of the king of his little sphere. Anyways, one day they were messing around at the track and someone brought their model S. This was before even car guys were really aware of what these cars could do. After some ribbing, they lined up with the Model S. The guy put it in insane mode and smoked my coworker in his Mustang.

They laughed about it and he didnt think much of it. But as months passed, it really bothered him that someone could just go buy an electric car that was faster than he could reasonably make his car go. He didn't quit all at once, but it kind of just stopped being fun for him over time and looking back he can now trace it to that moment.

I think that same thing is happening to developers as they see non-tech people using AI to make decent stuff

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️This is a monster signal.

This is the moment frontier AI stops being treated like software and starts being treated like controlled strategic capability.

The key phrase is not “customers.”

The key phrase is “foreign national Anthropic employees.”

That means the state is no longer only controlling chips, model weights, or overseas access. It is moving into cognition access by nationality. That is the real threshold. The U.S. government is saying the highest models are sensitive enough that even people physically inside the United States, working inside the company, may be barred from touching them if their nationality creates deemed-export risk.

That is weapons-control logic.

This is ITAR logic for intelligence.

The corporate language about a “misunderstanding” is probably diplomacy.

Companies say that when they need to preserve customer trust, employee morale, and regulatory room. But national security authorities do not force emergency suspension of top model access because someone made a minor paperwork mistake.

Something about Fable 5 and Mythos 5 crossed the line: cyber capability, autonomous R&D acceleration, AI-improving-AI utility, bio/security planning, code exploitation, or some blend of all of it.

The U.S. state just showed that Anthropic does not fully control Anthropic’s frontier layer.

That is the phase change.

Labs can brand themselves as public-benefit AI companies. They can talk about safety. They can sell enterprise plans. They can publish model cards. But once the models become national capability, the sovereign arrives. The state does not need to own the company to control the access surface. It only needs legal authority over export, security, procurement, and liability.

This confirms the arc we’ve been tracking:

Frontier AI becomes state-supervised strategic infrastructure.

Public AI splits from strategic AI.

Foreign access gets restricted.

Labs become quasi-defense contractors.

Model access becomes a national security perimeter.

Enterprise customers learn that API access is not property. It is revocable permission inside a sovereign-controlled stack.

The most important implication is organizational.

If foreign national employees can be cut off from frontier systems, AI labs now have to reorganize internally around citizenship, clearance, compartmentalization, and controlled access. That breaks the old Silicon Valley assumption that global talent can freely collaborate around the frontier. The next AI lab structure looks less like Google in 2015 and more like a defense prime crossed with a classified research facility.

For markets, the winners are the national champions with U.S.-aligned infrastructure, cleared customer channels, government relationships, compliance capacity, and domestic compute. The losers are open access, foreign-dependent AI wrappers, offshore model distributors, and any enterprise whose moat depends on unrestricted access to frontier APIs.

For geopolitics, this is escalation. China will read this correctly. Allies will read this correctly. Every serious state will understand that frontier models are now part of national power.

The AI race just moved from “who has the best chatbot” to “who controls cognition as a strategic asset.”

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

What?!?!?!

[Ledger 🇺🇸 @ledgerstatus]

Here's my take on AI, dictated by me then massaged by Claude a smidge.

https://t.co/eocuSKoHAc

[Balaji @balajis]

Much of any digital job is now preparing context for AI models.

Organizing files in folders, naming everything correctly, introducing things in the right order, and only then asking the AI to do something in clear written English.

[sysls @systematicls]

https://t.co/FQe5bCBqW1

[Michael Green @profplum99]

"there’s never been a better time to be born into human existence than this very instant."

Only time better is next instant. On this we agree.

The issue is not addressing poverty, it's gaslighting those IN functional poverty that they are well off and building a system that has the effect of trapping them in that functional poverty.

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

A corollary to @profplum99’s point quoted here by @kofinas:

Popular anger in the US will continue rising for as long as the situation below remains true while US leaders gaslight Americans that the biggest threat to the US is Russia or China.

Mamdani & Fuentes are just symptoms

[Peter Atwater @Peter_Atwater]

Required Reading:

@profplum99 has pulled together a tremendous essay that helps to explain why so many Americans feel financially stressed today.

Maybe it is because, as he shows, the annual family income "Survival Line," as he calls it, is $140,000.

https://t.co/iKXniPXIE7

[Ejaaz @cryptopunk7213]

coinbase launching an ICO platform is all the evidence you need to know the CLARITY act is getting passed.

launching a token used to be enough to send you to jail in the U.S. and now its about to be a legal instrument to raise capital, govern vast swathes of internet-native capitalists and return profits in the form of dividends / buy-backs. for anyone, anywhere in the world.

think many are under estimating what this means for the industry at large

[Coinbase Institutional 🛡️ @CoinbaseInsto]

October’s sell-off wasn’t the end of the cycle—it may have been the reset it needed.

Excess leverage is flushed, fundamentals remain intact, and institutional players are quietly rotating back in. Smart money is clustering around EVM chains, RWAs, and yield protocols—pointing to selective re-risking, not retreat.

Key takeaways:
• Leverage is cleaner, but liquidity gaps remain.
•Capital is rotating, not entering—selectivity remains critical.
• Macro risk lingers, but structural demand builds.

We think this is the base-building phase before the next leg up, not a cycle top.

Get more on these and other key insights in this Monthly Outlook report:
https://t.co/MMzJSdanTO

[abmacro10 @abmacro_10]

@WallStreetApes Govt subsidies on the rate

[abmacro10 @abmacro_10]

@blakestonks Next step: subsidize the rates on a 50 yr

[abmacro10 @abmacro_10]

@TheSource25 @KobeissiLetter This isn’t the lifetime sentence of Debt. It’s decades of bad policy that created the lifetime sentence of debt. This is a fast bandaid to help out a generation of people that were screwed over

[abmacro10 @abmacro_10]

@value_invest01 @KobeissiLetter Any house in Southern California is unaffordable relative to the median household income. That destroys an entire generations hopes of purchasing a home. The 50 yr mortgage beats the hell out of renting. I’m all for it

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump announces 50-year mortgages in the US.

[abmacro10 @abmacro_10]

@nathanielsford @KobeissiLetter Beats renting

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

Current setup for BTC and ETH is rare - largest positioning rinse in history of crypto while standing on doorstep of macro goldilocks. 10/10 liquidation cleared more leverage in $ and % of OI than entire Jan-Apr '25 period. Opportunity ahead is similar to pre-Trump victory '24.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Ethereum has now dropped 30% and is at its bull market support band.

I think ETH can now rally to new all time highs.