Abraham J Victoria

Economista Financiero

[Erik Brynjolfsson @erikbryn]

Today, the Stanford @DigEconLab launches the AI Economic Indicators, a new platform for tracking how AI is reshaping work, productivity, adoption, and the economy.

1/6

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh wants to pay more attention to measures of inflation that strip out the most extreme price moves each month.

Several versions exist, all running below core. The most widely cited is the Dallas Fed's, at 2.3% in April (vs. 3.3% for core PCE).

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as new Fed Chair on Friday and then a new era begins. Here's @baselinescene with his latest podcast on what this new era will bring. A must-listen...
https://t.co/f9CBCQrrn7

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

One of the largest energy shocks in history shows no signs of abating. We have mapped the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/ZWq9q64lHJ

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

PCE inflation was 3.5% in March, the highest since May 2023, when the Fed was raising rates.

Core PCE inflation was 3.2%, the highest since Nov. 2023, when the Fed still had a hiking bias.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

This is a possible preview of the "messy meetings" and "family fight" that Fed Chair designate Kevin Warsh said he wanted at his confirmation hearing last week.

[Abraham J Victoria @abrahamjv19]

Si algo o alguien juzgará el desempeño de Trump (sobre todo y en primera instancia en las elecciones de medio término) será el mercado. Brave New World, Brave New Trump?

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Fed research suggests the inflation engine may be running differently across advanced economies since the pandemic:

1/ More categories continue to see price growth above 3%, with broad-based wage growth in services appearing to be a key driver

2/ Even categories with flat or falling prices aren't pulling the overall number down the way they used to

3/ Pre-pandemic models consistently underpredict current inflation, suggesting the relationship between price dispersion and aggregate inflation may have shifted https://t.co/fjdQTsaV8e

[Abraham J Victoria @abrahamjv19]

Dónde está el plan concreto y formal para el abordaje del tema Irán? Alguien tiene alguna ref? 🇩🇴

[Juan C. López Pérez @eJcLopez1387]

Ayer el tipo de cambio DOP/USD referencia venta bajó $1.07: Esta es la primera vez en 21.4 años (desde 4/10/2004) que el peso se aprecia $1 en 1 día. La última vez que aumentó $1 en 1 día fue 28/12/2005, hace 20.2 años; es decir, durante 2006-25 nunca hubo cambio diario de $1

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Broadly speaking, the big stories in inflation over the past year:

1)
Shelter disinflation proceeded so favorably last year that it is now running *below* core non-housing services (unusual) and also below the pre-pandemic run rate. Shelter dis-inflation was widely expected in 2023, after new lease rents inflected much lower in late 2022. But it took a bit longer to show up, fraying nerves in early 2024.

2)
Core goods inflation picked up in 2025 and showed no signs of slowing in January 2026. Those prices rose at an annualized rate of 3% over the three months ended January. Core goods was around zero before the pandemic. Excluding the 2021-23 surge in core goods prices, core goods inflation accelerated last year to levels not previously experienced since the early 1990s.

3)
Core non-housing services inflation is moving sideways at around 3.5% YoY. It averaged 2% during the five years before the pandemic. It doesn't have to fall quite that low for the Fed to hit 2% because inflation was below 2% before the pandemic, and it doesn't have to fall that low if we get even more shelter disinflation this year, which seems possible.

But the overshoot relative to the pre-pandemic equilibrium in core goods *and* core non-housing services remains a challenge for returning to 2% inflation. One or both of these will have to get better.

[Abraham J Victoria @abrahamjv19]

Del buen amigo @ViktorBautista (no se si) amablemente para los que a veces creen que su “ligera/humilde/farsante/malsana” opinión en medios digitales es ley y que la realidad es opcional, tremendo escrito:

[Víctor Bautista @ViktorBautista]

Este documento no es solo una disculpa; es un hito y una sentencia de muerte a la impunidad de las ratas digitales.

Aquellos que creen que pueden ejercer el terrorismo reputacional desde la comodidad de un teclado, escondidos tras una pantalla para destruir honras ajenas, hoy reciben una advertencia clara: NO SON INTOCABLES.

Lo que este "Desagravio" nos enseña:
• La verdad no se negocia: Las difamaciones "irresponsables" y los alegatos falsos tienen consecuencias legales y públicas.
• Trayectoria vs. Veneno: Cincuenta años de ejercicio profesional , como los de don Aníbal de Castro, pesan más que cualquier campaña de lodo financiada.
• Responsabilidad ineludible: Quien lesiona el honor de un ciudadano y su familia, termina rindiendo cuentas, de rodillas ante la realidad.
Es hora de fumigar el ecosistema digital. El que use las redes para difamar, que se prepare para las consecuencias. La justicia tarda, pero cuando llega, es implacable.
¡Basta de ligerezas! El respeto a la dignidad humana vuelve a ser ley. @DiarioLibre
#JusticiaDigital #NoMasDifamacion #LibertadDeExpresionConResponsabilidad #DominicanRepublic

[Abraham J Victoria @abrahamjv19]

Excelente hilo del colega @DerlinNunezs

[Derlin Núñez Suriel @DerlinNunezs]

1/ «La Trampa Silenciosa: La dinámica de deuda que la Ley de Responsabilidad Fiscal no puede detener».

Nuevo formato en mi blog: A partir de hoy también incluyó análisis de política económica como artículos y no solo ensayos.

Hilo 🧵

🔗 [https://t.co/C6F3kDJySK]

[Derlin Núñez Suriel @DerlinNunezs]

1/ «La Trampa Silenciosa: La dinámica de deuda que la Ley de Responsabilidad Fiscal no puede detener».

Nuevo formato en mi blog: A partir de hoy también incluyó análisis de política económica como artículos y no solo ensayos.

Hilo 🧵

🔗 [https://t.co/C6F3kDJySK]

[Greg Ip @greg_ip]

This column counters doomers who say AI could raise unemployment broadly. First, rarely has any technology directly destroyed more jobs than it creates, and I don't see it now. This chart (H/T @JamesBessen) surprised me: software employment still rising /1 https://t.co/mMN9VaPDJP

[Dr. Dominic Ng @DrDominicNg]

Writing forces your brain to coordinate memory, reasoning, and meaning-making simultaneously.

Every time you write, you rewire toward clearer thinking. Every time you let an LLM do it, you rewire toward consumption.

[Abraham J Victoria @abrahamjv19]

Quizá es propio en estos tiempos, recordar este por qué.

Sin dudas el Dr Julio Velarde Flores con casi dos décadas al frente de la autoridad monetaria, ha sido piedra angular en este curioso fenómeno económico…

[Abraham J Victoria @abrahamjv19]

@LuisDaSerrano Enhorabuena! 👏🏼👊🏼

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

True