Andrew Busch

Economic Futurist | Keynote Speaker | former CMIO US government
Future economy: growth opportunities!|

[Andrew Busch @abusch]

Midterms on Tuesday! This will be one of the largest turnouts in our history of midterm elections.

Hard to say how it will turn out, but there's a significant amount of polling suggesting a "blue wave." Maybe, but let's see if the traditional "red wave" of voting on election day materializes.

Here's a great article on "be careful what you wish for" on Republicans redistricting prior to 2026 to make 15 districts red. It appears to be backfiring especially in TX.

"But the GOP failed to calculate a few things — like the impact of Trump’s tariffs, or his war with Iran or the negative pull of the administration’s aggressive ICE raids and immigration crackdowns on Latino families. They also didn’t consider the backlash from Black voters angry about erasing the congressional districts that had given voice to their communities for decades."

Yes, not sure why Rs thought Hispanics would continue to support them given the Trump administration's aggressive immigration policies. Go figure.

Last lines to the article point out the might-have-beens for Rs had Trump focused on affordability.

"Imagine what the landscape would have looked like if Trump put his political capital into a more popular agenda instead of new maps."

https://t.co/v4q3713fmJ

[Andrew Busch @abusch]

@RahmEmanuel Like so many before him in that role, he’s lost all credibility.

[Andrew Busch @abusch]

@VoicesofWW2 Awesome story, hope it’s true!

[Andrew Busch @abusch]

Zandi and his team are gifted economists. I continue to enjoy their podcast and have been an active listener since 2025.

But they have been overly pessimistic and questioned the strength of the economy over that rime frame.

Could they or he be right now?

Q3 GDP running over 3% and both manufacturing & services pmis solidly above 50.

If Zandi is going to be correct, it’ll happen much later in 2027 due to the forward economic momentum.

[Mark Zandi @Markzandi]

The Fed won’t raise interest rates again when it meets this week, and it shouldn’t. The economy is threatened by a growing list of risks, and a Fed misstep is one of them.

That’s the clear message in our risk matrix, which sizes up each risk by how likely it is to occur over the next 12 to 18 months and how much economic damage it would cause if it did. There’s a lot of red in the matrix, indicating risks that are becoming more likely or more severe.

[Andrew Busch @abusch]

@jimiuorio @packers What were you thinking, it’s “I own you” Green Bay

[Andrew Busch @abusch]

Great read to understand the impact on diesel from Ukrainian drone strikes.

Love the quote on the video: "Russian diesel deal will provide 10-hours of supply."

"The attacks slashed Russia’s diesel exports by more than 75%, to 141,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September, compared to 608,000 bpd in the same period last year, according to Kpler data."

I believe the Ukrainians can act without Starshield to attack, but need it for defensive purposes. US intel has been assisting in picking targets and specific hard to rebuild/replace areas.

My call: diesel prices aren't going down anytime soon. Inflation to remain elevated and US low-income/middle-income consumers hit.

https://t.co/eXYZRc75r2

[Andrew Busch @abusch]

Where’s the research and cases ag all the Polymarket bets on ME and oil? Maybe someone should read tealeaves to see we have an election coming up?

[CFTC @CFTC]

.@CFTC Secures Court Order Directing Louisiana Man and His Companies to Pay Over $9 Million in Forex Fraud:
https://t.co/t3Zq6D8yEs

[Andrew Busch @abusch]

Interesting quote by Romaine Bostik on Bloomberg‘s the close. He stated that learning cursive is a waste of time. He said that even reading the Declaration of Independence in cursive is not needed as that that no one does reads it anymore. And therefore who needs cursive. Anyone agree?

[Andrew Busch @abusch]

With the US economy growing, stocks up and firing low, why do US voters/consumers feel awful?@NYT has a nice review of key econ stats to provide a glimpse into the mindset.

Yes, I realize my MAGA/Republican friends will not want to read anything from NYT. But I hope most will be curious and want to understand why President Trump's approval ratings are at all-time lows for him. If you don't understand something, how can you provide a solution to it (the problem)?

Here's a key quote: “Voters had the sense that President Biden’s policies were leading to higher prices, and voters have the sense that President Trump’s policies are leading to higher prices now,” said Michael Strain, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. “In both cases, I think voters made the right judgment."

Midterms coming up fast, let's see if this is an indicator for the outcome.

https://t.co/ZOe0W8i0oT

[Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM]

Latest: ​Zelenskyy tells reporters over WhatsApp that restrictions on Ukraine's Starlink systems remain. Interceptor drones can't function, logistics and operations hobbled. The maximum speed is 161 kph; "exceeding this limit causes the Starlink connection to cut out completely, resulting in the loss of the drone."

He says Ukraine has done tests to determine whether SpaceX is truly facing technical issues, as has been told Kyiv by the US side, or if this is a "deliberate operation... to restrict us, cut us off, and prevent us from defending ourselves and protecting our people, both at the front and among the civilian population."

He says Ukraine "sent a couple of vehicles equipped with Starlink terminals into European Union territory."

"They moved at speeds exceeding 180kph, and the Starlink systems worked perfectly. We have the relevant logs and evidence to prove this."

He adds: "The conclusion is clear: the restrictions are in effect within Ukraine but do not apply within the European Union. In other words, this is a planned operation."

[Andrew Busch @abusch]

Policy actions have consequences

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Nearly two-thirds of builders said immigration enforcement is affecting their labor force, up from 23% in March and 13% a year ago, according to a September John Burns Research & Consulting survey.

“We’re almost dead in the water because our workforce is gone,” said Scott Brannock, president of Jacksonville-based Tidewater Homes and the Northeast Florida Builders Association.

“We have national builders who are missing projections, losing hundreds of thousands of dollars because they have slabs sitting on the ground and no one to frame.”

https://t.co/XXmAtwNuoI

[Andrew Busch @abusch]

@ianbremmer @McFaul Both Trump and Musk are calling for his replacement. Not much downside to standup ag them.

[Andrew Busch @abusch]

I disagree. By 2032, I believe both SS and Medicare trust funds run out. 20%-25% cut in SS. This will focus the minds of politicians to either cut spending, raise revenues or both. Or get kicked out of office. But I'm with you, it's on the raise revenues side that will likely happen. Potential for NST.

[Andrew Busch @abusch]

Some additional info on Coreweave: https://t.co/ZlS2ovpivD

[Andrew Busch @abusch]

Higher for longer is the mantra on rates. 3.7% CPI print demonstrates the need for further Fed action. It's something I've told clients for 3 years+. In order, -capital supply (Boomers retiring) with booming capital demand (deglobalization, defense, data centers & US federal govt.) are driving the higher rate bus.

Residential markets need to adjust. Prices need to fall more as the cost of mortgage goes up. Buyers in the drivers seat.

Tremors in the bond markets, possibly. CoreWeave poster child for all the closet Michael Burrys to come out and play.

Midterms will be the next point of concern.

As I advise clients, price in cost of capital at higher levels until late 2027.

https://t.co/H3xO6mTPgd

[Andrew Busch @abusch]

Maybe why it's a good idea to scrutinize every piece of tech out of that country?

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

NEW: 🇳🇴 Chinese-owned rental cars used by the Norwegian Armed Forces reportedly recorded soldiers, their movements and security codes during a major military exercise in Oslo, raising serious questions about the security of vehicles used in sensitive military operations.

The incident occurred during Operation Hovedstad, held from September 14 to 18, when Norway’s Home Guard District 02 trained for security operations, including scenarios involving the defence of Oslo Airport during wartime.

The Armed Forces had rented the cars through Hertz Norway under a nationwide rental agreement signed in 2024, worth up to 350 million Norwegian kroner and running until May 2028. Hertz Norway’s ownership chain ultimately leads to China’s Zhejiang Geely Holding Group, which also owns Volvo Cars. The agreement provides rental vehicles for exercises, operational activities and everyday military use.

During the exercise, soldiers discovered that the cars had recorded and stored video footage. Lieutenant Fredrik Blanck told Norwegian newspaper Dagens Næringsliv (DN) that the recordings showed who entered and exited the vehicles, where they travelled, whom they picked up and how long they remained at different locations.

More concerningly, the footage reportedly captured security codes entered by soldiers when opening military gates. Some access points require both a key card and a code, meaning the recordings could expose sensitive access procedures.

The vehicles remained in use throughout the exercise because alternative transport was in limited supply.

[The Cincinnati News @CincinnatiNews_]

US-owned steel plant with a plant in Middletown OH begins mass layoffs amid Trump tariffs:

In a memo sent by Cleveland-Cliffs to workers, the company explicitly linked the move to Trump's steel tariffs on Canada, which it said had "significantly shrunk the market" for its products.
https://t.co/lhAai2QKGx

[Reuters @Reuters]

Reuters found President Trump's clemency for public officials has allowed many recipients to leave prison early, avoid trials or sentencing, or regain certain rights. A Reuters investigation: https://t.co/omqWWc2Dug @marisaataylor @chrisprentice @mike_d_spector @specialreports

[Andrew Busch @abusch]

This sector is on fire. AI ecosystem driving rapid growth. Biggest problem is execution with interest rates, diesel, tariffs and immigration all causing headwinds for growth.

[CMAA @CMAA_HQ]

What’s ahead for the economy and the industry? 📈

At the #CMAA2026 Lunch Plenary, futurist and economist Andrew Busch explored the 2026 economic outlook, from #AI and public policy to emerging opportunities for future growth. @abusch

[Richard Rubin @RichardRubinDC]

Part of what's appealing to large donors here, according to the Treasury Department, is that "a stock contribution with a five-year holding period may lead recipients and their families to feel that they have a stake in the fate of the corporation" more than in an index fund.