Ace Trades

Third bull cycle veteran. Momentum and narrative trader, riding the strongest waves of the market.

[doug funnie @cryptoklotz]

why making decisions based on a single crypto personality is a disaster, 101:

i think ben cowen is probably the most thoughtful large-following crypto youtube figure, which makes this example especially poignant (you could do far worse in terms of isolated siloes of information)

in this video, he sets up a dynamic DCA strategy where he purportedly buys below a certain level, and sells above, and makes strong claims about this system

all v reasonable, until you see that, if he followed his own system (DCAing out above his system's .6 risk level), he would've barely sold anything the past 3 years (and what was sold would've happened at 60-70k back in 2024), and essentially done a near-total round trip on BTC

not intended to be some sort of callout, but just a pretty acute reminder of how everything needs to be looked at in confluence with other sources

[Joao Wedson @joao_wedson]

Bitcoin has just recorded the 2nd largest Unrealized Loss in history.

In other words, a massive amount of coins are sitting in paper losses.

But the most important detail is in the other chart: Realized Loss remains low.

This shows that, despite the pain, holders are still not realizing losses in mass.

The market is under pressure. Many investors are underwater, but we still haven’t seen that classic wave of broad capitulation.

In other words, there is a lot of unrealized pain.

But very little panic selling.

This divergence is extremely important.
If Realized Loss starts to explode, we could see a final, more aggressive cleansing phase.

But as long as it remains low, the signal is still clear to me: the market is suffering, but holders have not surrendered their coins yet.

Are you surrendering your coins?
Or are you accumulating?

[Kaz @XBTkaz]

$BTC

Here's the full analysis on BOJ rate hikes that ever happened (relevant to BTC),

And trust me you NEED to see this.

Let's quickly talk about what are BOJ rate hikes and why do they effect markets.

BOJ rate hikes increase the cost of borrowing yen,

Which can reduce global liquidity and trigger selling in stocks, crypto, and other risk assets as investors unwind yen-funded trades.

So far there were 4 rate hikes in the modern BTC era, with 5th one approaching on 16th June.

Out of those 4 rate hikes, price has dumped 4/4 times.

And the important thing to notice here is that the average dump was around 25-30%,

Meaning every time we saw rate hikes, it resulted in a major correction on price.

Now let's talk about the one that's coming our way and what we can expect from markets,

If we talk about the current market sentiments, so it expects the BOJ meeting to be a rate hike and is looking forward for the new rate to be 1%.

Hence if its a rate hike, we are definitely gonna see a major correction on BTC,

And I am talking about a 20-25% correction from the Lower High.

We are also pumping into the BOJ (16th June) and FOMC (17th June).

So it's possible for those dates to mark the Lower High,

But if you see the chart given below, you will notice that price has slightly pumped before the major drop.

So what I am expecting is we are gonna pump to 68-70k,

And then start the dump from there,

I got a pivot on 22 June, so it's possible for us to pump into 22nd then dump if not on 16-17th.

I will be looking for swing short entries and target Low 50s as my TP (will be given in my discord corner).

Also, I am expecting 70-72k as the max extension, meaning if we see price above 70k, I think it's gonna be a free short.

Let the game begin.

[philarekt @philarekt]

THE DUMP IS GOING EXACTLY TO PLAN

I called this move before it started bitcoin is now tracking straight toward the cycle bottom

June→ flat
July→ relief bounce
August→ dump to $50K
September→ fake bounce
October→ dump to $40K
November→ cycle bottom

I called the $16K bottom and the $126K top both publicly

The next call matters more than any of those

Turn on notifications - the people who don't follow yet will wish they had

[Crypto Lens @crypto_lens_]

Bitcoin is now in the $65,000–$66,000 resistance zone.

After the final rejection and a relief rally, $BTC will dump to $48,000 in 12 days.

$63K → $66K → $53K → $48K → $43k

Scenario 1:
→ $48K within days

Scenario 2:
→ $43K by August

Remember, I've predicted every major move for 12 years. I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at ($16k) three years ago and the top at ($126k) in October.

If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too.

Turn notifications on.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC

With the 14th approaching, paying close attention to the narrative will be crucial in assessing what is likely to unfold over the remainder of this month.

If a bullish narrative emerges, a reversal after the 14th becomes likely.

Of course, this is simply based on a pattern that has been repeating over the past 10 months.

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

Bitcoin is sitting right on the 200-week moving average, around $61,300. I want to be precise about why that matters, because most people quote the wrong line.

The 200-week simple moving average, not the exponential one, has marked the cycle bottom in 2015, in 2018 and in 2022. Every major bear in bitcoin's history has bottomed at or just below this line and then turned. It is the closest thing the asset has to a structural floor, because it represents roughly four years of average price, which is one full cycle. We are testing it right now, and bitcoin has already lost the 50-week moving average on weekly closes, which is the line that historically separates a bull market from a bear market. So the structure is bearish, and we are in the part of the cycle where you find out who actually had a plan.

The thing I keep repeating, because it is the thing people get wrong, is that this crash is macro, not crypto. There is no FTX here, no Luna, no single blowup to point at. What happened is the Fed pivoted to hiking, the hottest CPI in three years landed, December hike odds sit near 70%, and nobody serious, not Nomura, not Morgan Stanley, not JPMorgan, is pricing cuts for 2026. A hiking cycle does not change bitcoin's bear structure. The 200-week bottom and the roughly twelve-month bear clock still apply. What the regime changes is the depth. Hawkish macro means the drawdown can go deeper than a clean cycle would suggest before it finds the floor.

So here are the two lanes I'm watching. The bull lane: bitcoin holds $61K, reclaims $69K which was prior-cycle resistance, then $76K as the measured move, then $87K which is the 200-day average. The bear lane: it loses $61K on a weekly close, and the next real floor is $53,600, which is the realized price, the on-chain average cost basis for the entire network. Below that, mid-$40s, which would be roughly 30% under the 200-week line, the same kind of overshoot 2022 produced.

I'm not trying to call the exact bottom, because precision is a trap. But there is a convergence I trust as a signal, and it has marked the last four bottoms: price at the realized cost basis around $53,600, the MVRV-Z score collapsing toward zero, and bitcoin trading about 16% below the 200-week line. When those three line up, that is the zone, historically. On-chain, supply in loss just passed supply in profit for the first time this cycle, with around 8 million coins underwater. That is pain, and pain is what the setup is made of.

None of those triggers are sentiment. They're levels. That's the whole point. In a bear market the edge isn't having a smarter opinion about where price goes. It's deciding your levels in advance and being willing to do nothing until price comes to them.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

After a predictable move to neutral on Ultimate Fear and Greed in the time frame we'd expect it, the next logical move is back to extreme fear.

From this point, F&G usually does this 2 more times before the cycle bottom is in.

[CryptoBullet @CryptoBullet1]

@SmartConn8t no, imo we'll get some bounce/consolidation in July-early August and then another leg down (the final one) in Sept-Oct

[Ace Trades @ace_0xc]

I am planning to DCA between 60-44k myself, and getting into alts once BTC has confirmed its uptrend is a pretty solid bet.

That cycle top goal is crazy though.

[Kevin @Kev_Capital_TA]

My plan has been and continues to be:

DCA into Bitcoin with proper allocation sizes at major levels throughout the summer months.

I started at the 200W SMA.

I will continue DCA into bitcoin:native at major levels between my 56K-44K range, while keeping some extra dry powder in case we hit a stretch target of $34K, which I don't believe needs to happen unless a black swan event occurs.

Beyond that, I will keep monitoring the 2W-1M timeframes for momentum, money flow, and strength indicators, which continue to reset.

After that, I plan to HODL and look for altcoin opportunities for swing trades when BTC confirms a new uptrend by breaking back above and holding its 2D 200 EMA/SMA.

That's the best path to victory in crypto over the next cycle. I speculatively believe that BTC can hit 300K+ next cycle.

[Klarck @0xklarck]

MASSIVE $BTC TRAP HASN'T EVEN STARTED YET...

$63K resistance broke and $60K liquidity got swept...

My 30-day plan is simple:

Bounce to $69K → rejection → $53K → $48K

This latest rally = nothing more than a trap to unload $BTC

I've previously called major moves across global markets, including $BTC drop from $126k to $60k

Turn on notifs so you don't miss next call...

[Titan @Washigorira]

#Bitcoin Balanced Price 🟠

Another useful metric to keep on your radar when looking for potential cycle bottoms.

Historically, major #BTC bottoms have formed when price touched or closely approached the Balanced Price.

The Balanced Price is currently sitting at $39,149 and trending lower.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

I'm only the one delivering the message.

The simulation is real. $BTC

[LP @LP_NXT]

$BTC

Bid: Mid/Late June

Sell: Late July and don’t ask why

[Ace Trades @ace_0xc]

No rush in catching falling knives. The real bottoming area has some flat monthly closes.

[philarekt @philarekt]

BTC HAS DONE THIS THREE TIMES

2018 bounce to $10K felt like recovery - it wasn't
2021 bounce to $45K felt like recovery - it wasn't
2025 bounce to $80K feels like recovery - it isn't

Same cycle, same trap, same late buyers getting wrecked

Sell the top, trap the longs, accumulate at the bottom this is the pattern

I exited in 2025 at $126K and the real buy zone is still ahead

Turn on notifications - I'll call the entry when it's time

[Tony Research @TonyResearch_]

Everything is going exactly as I predicted!

$BTC is currently at the level where the bull trap ends

Right now we see a bounce toward ~$65K, then a drop toward ~$55K:

$65K → $55K → $43K → $67K → $100K → $180K

Next stops:
→ $55K
→ $43K by October
→ New ATH in 2028
→ $180K in Q4 2029

As a reminder, I warned about the bull trap at $82K and the summer drop.

MY NEXT CALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST ONE OF THIS CYCLE

TURN ON NOTIFICATIONS. MOST PEOPLE WILL FOLLOW ME TOO LATE

[bee🐝 @0xbeehive]

THE SIMPLEST $BTC STRATEGY IN HISTORY HAS NEVER BEEN WRONG

No indicators, no complex analysis, just TWO rules:

1. Buy 500 days before the halving
2. Sell 500 days after the halving

These rules has worked at every halving and paid off every time

And what do we have now?

The 5th halving is April 2028

And here's what makes it interesting - 500 days before that lands exactly in October 2026

The same month the 4-year bear cycle is projected to bottom

Two completely different frameworks pointing at the same month

What do you think about this?

Personally, I'm just find it interesting to watch this theory play out

FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!

[フ ォ リ ス @follis_]

Look back at past cycles

Bear market bottoms are messy

Months of rangebound, choppy price action

Stop thinking $BTC will V-shape reverse to new ATHs, because it probably won't happen like that

When the lows come, you'll have plenty of time to accumulate

Patience until then

[MARMOT @Web3Marmot]

Everything is going exactly as I predicted.

The S&P 500 dump has begun.

But it's still 20% above its 200 EMA.

3 out of 3 previous cycles proved one thing:

Huge pump above 200 EMA always ends in a brutal crash.

2020 → 2022 → 2025

This time won't be different.

Remember, I warned about the BTC $82k bull trap and Saylor's sell-off before it happened.

My next call will be the biggest one this cycle.

Turn on notifications. Most people will follow me too late.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

Let’s be completely objective.

$BTC below the quarterly open is bearish.

If the quarterly low holds, a move back to the quarterly open remains possible.

However, if the quarterly low is lost, the next area of interest is the CME gap around 54K, followed by the July 2024 low.