@ibekidkirsch Definitely found this to be the case in my experience, too. I've had success using a smaller model like Haiku do most of the work and then once the frontend starts to get too messy, switch to Opus to refactor down to smaller parts.
Here is the product walkthrough of https://t.co/WgdjKA5HUJ. It's been live for 0 days and has 0 Users, and 0 Moneys. Yuck. I don't know how y'all post so much. This takes forever.
This is @Figure_Robot III announced today. I’m sorry but every other form factor besides humanoids will be crushed 🦾🤖🦾
I keep hearing people starting specialized robotics companies, “like robots for laundry”. And the pitch is: “you don’t need a humanoid form factor to do laundry, it can be much simpler”. That’s true. But, humanoids can do everything and will become the default form factor and so will be mass manufactured and so will be extremely cheap compared to lower volume robots. Its so obvious, it will be humanoids doing laundry, not a specialized laundry robot 🤦♂️
The one main exception to that might be line work in a factory where you do just need the arms and you can mass manufacture them (a al @proceptionAI)
The Fed's new quasi-mandate will be to help manage the US' debt load with the Treasury. Borderline emerging market stuff.
At some point, probably by the end of Trump's term, it seems like they're going to have to pretty explicitly choose between the currency and bonds. Some version of YCC doesn't seem so unlikely anymore.
On a 5-10 year time horizon, I don't see how current developments aren't ultra-bearish for the dollar and yields (until they maybe cap them with/ YCC), bullish gold & Bitcoin. No coincidence that the pico bottom of GLD/TLT was the week of the covid crash.
In the short term rolled off my excess leverage on BTC from pre-ATH break, but continue to maintain a strong core position. Don't own much gold but like it too. I built back up my long-end bond short position starting after the BBB passed and NFP data came in strong & yields broke their downtrend. It's now clear that the economy is fine and got through the patch of softer econ data and end of quarter flows that prob drove the rally back to 4.75% on the 30y. Inflation swaps, yields/yield curve, & credit spreads are confirming the view that a nominal recession isn't imminent.
The final hurdle for yields potentially breaking out is the QRA on the 30th, which is when Bessent will outline the issuance of bills/bonds for the third quarter. It seems unlikely that Bessent will shift issuance strongly to bills already, especially given how outspoken he's been against Yellen doing so, but the Trump admin 180'd on everything around cutting spending and economic policy so far, wouldn't be a surprise. That being said, the long end hasn't broken out yet, so there's no need for imminent reactive panic. We'll see what he does in 10 days.
If we get through QRA and there isn't a huge shift in issuance to bills, I'm planning to size up my long end shorts from lower double-digit % of my portfolio to mid double-digit %.
A lot of levers the Feds can pull to try and manipulate things, so have to stay nimble, but I'm expecting a meaningful breakout at some point.
The outright number isn't necessarily a problem for risk -- if yields grind up say from 5-5.25% it's ok, but it's the rate of change that matters. If they were to really start to blow out, that's when there would be problems for risk.
I do think some form of YCC will come at some point, but not here, they'll be reactive if we are to get a move higher. If we get any confirmation of this, they'll have effectively given the USD kiss of death, and you can probably just full port IBIT calls and your favorite growth stocks/altcoins on all time frames.
Long Bitcoin & gold, short bonds & USD.
I think marijuana is the most insidious of drugs. It is legal in many states, is socially acceptable to many and is relatively easy for kids to hide, access and consume (vape, gummies etc).
But the science is beginning to tell a very ugly story.
We should have never legalized it. But now that it is, I hope we do something to mandate standard toxicity and concentration labeling at a minimum. This stuff is turning a plurality of our kids into zombies.
https://t.co/eVFRZaVOeJ
ZATOSHI AND ZETHEREUM
Here’s a bold plan for how one brave engineer could strike a blow for internet freedom while bringing Ethereum all the way back: they just need to go Zatoshi and build Zethereum.
What does that mean? It means an pseudonymous developer with impeccable opsec should take it upon themselves to add private transactions along with the zero knowledge stack to Ethereum as a set of optional smart contracts.
Call that developer Zatoshi.
And call that stack Zethereum.
Zethereum would be the newly legal[1] Tornado Cash, plus APIs for all the zero knowledge (ZK) innovation[2] over the last few years. Essentially it would be a way to ship much of Justin Drake’s impressive[3] five year ZK roadmap in three months...except via smart contracts rather than the base layer. This would enable our hypothetical Zatoshi to move quickly and take more risk.
Speaking of risk though…a user-facing Zethereum would still be high risk. The recent Tornado Cash ruling[1] does give a window for privacy-preserving smart contracts again. But we need pardons for Roman Storm[4] and Alexey Pertsev[5] to fully confirm that privacy is not a crime — just like we need them for Ross Ulbricht, Assange, and Snowden.
Until that day comes, anyone who wants to build a Zethereum should still go Zatoshi to do it: meaning full anon, with perfect opsec.
Now let me answer some obvious questions.
1) Why not Bitcoin? I love Bitcoin, but the base layer is essentially immutable at this point. And the BTC community is more focused on political innovation (eg converting nation states) than technical innovation. That is critical and necessary, but it’s just different.
2) Why not Solana? I am also very impressed with Solana and use USDC-SOL and Solana NFTs constantly, which means they actually work, which is the highest praise I can give. However, Solana has non-anonymous developers, so doing something as private as Zethereum is a risk. This is why it's a job for a Zatoshi.
3) Why not Base? See answer on Solana. Brian, Jesse, and my friends on the Coinbase team have executed extremely well on Base. But they too may want a Zatoshi to be the first mover on Zethereum.
4) Why not Zcash? Zooko and his old team are of course the pioneers in zero knowledge. And Zcash arguably has already done much of this in terms of base-layer privacy. But Zcash doesn’t have the distribution of Ethereum. Perhaps it's because privacy aficionados don’t talk about their chain, so Zcash had a word-of-mouth marketing problem. Regardless, adding easy privacy to Ethereum would mainstream Zcash's ideas.
5) What about all the other ZK tech on Ethereum? Yes, we have ZKsync and Starkware — and they too are technically amazing — but their focus has been on ZK for scaling, which is different from ZK for privacy.
6) Why not another chain? You could try Zethereum on another chain, but the Tornado Cash ruling specifically concerned a smart contract on Ethereum. So it's maybe slightly higher risk on another chain, particularly until Storm and Pertsev are pardoned. But you might try it if you are willing to take a calculated risk for internet freedom.
7) Oh, and why now? Two reasons. First, the Tornado Cash ruling just reduced risk. And second, the recent election should reinvigorate the appetite of Ethereum's left-libertarians to defend privacy via technology. At a minimum, the left-statists won't oppose them anymore, and the principled right-libertarians will support them. Because building neutral platforms that protect universal human rights — like privacy — is valuable no matter what party is in power or what chain is used to protect those rights.
SUMMARY
So, that's how one bold anon could make Ethereum great again — and in months rather than years.
Because if Tornado Cash is legal[1], you could first anonymously enable any Ethereum wallet to send Zcash-grade private transactions from one ENS address to another. Then you could add the full panoply of new ZK innovations[2].
You could thereby go Zatoshi.
And build Zethereum.
My father fled Iran during the revolution.
He landed as a young man in Paris and decided to become a doctor.
But…he failed his first year of medical school. Because he didn’t speak French.
Then, he retook the first year again…and failed for a second time (because he still barely spoke french and was taking organic chemistry in a language with a different alphabet).
He decided to move to Brussels to give it a third try and start over.
And on his third try, he’d learned enough French to pass. He went on and graduated top of his class.
Then, he met my mother and she convinced him to come to the U.S.
He came here with $1000, a suitcase, and, yet again, didn’t speak the native language (now English).
They wouldn’t recognize his foreign MD and no one would give him a residency because he was a foreigner.
So he spent 2 years as a technician working barely above minimum wage.
Then finally, he was finally given a
residency in the U.S.
After residency, he joined my grandfathers practice (moms dad).
Just as he began to develop a reputation, he found himself locked out of his own office. The locks changed on him overnight.
My mother decided to get a divorce.
He had to start over, again, this time on his own.
But he didn’t have the money.
And - to build a surgery center was $250,000 (in 1995 dollars).
He didn’t have that kind of money.
So looked up the legal requirements and he built his own. The entire thing. Himself. To code. Actually. Out of sheer will. And built it for under $30,000 (all the money he had at the time).
Finally, he was on his own.
This time, he kept growing and growing his practice until he became the top eyelid surgeon in Maryland. And eventually, in the U.S.
He’s done more than 16,000 cases meaning somewhere upwards of 50,000+ eyelids.
And every year he (on his own) does more eyelid cases than all of John’s Hopkins eye department combined.
My father taught me many lessons. Most of them through example, not preaching. He’s not a man of many words.
But the few things he did say, he’d say with his actions over and over again:
Failures are just detours.
Don’t let anyone tell you you aren’t good enough for what you want.
Whatever you do, be the best.
God gave you the power to ignore, use it.
It’s better to be envied than pitied.
You won’t even remember their name in 20 years.
You’re only stressed because you’re underprepared.
There’s nothing anyone can put you through that you haven’t already put yourself through that was worse.
And finally…
You only get one name, tell the world what you want it to mean by what you do with it.
****
Whenever I go through hard times I like to remember what he went through to make my life possible.
And somehow, everything always falls into focus.
PS - I get a lot credit for what I’ve done. But I often think what he accomplished was far harder than what I have. And - I don’t want his sacrifice to be in vain.
PPS - Whats the best piece of advice your father (or father figure) gave you?
“Rules for thee, not for me.” Thousands of IRS employees & contractors literally *aren’t paying their own taxes.* @SenJoniErnst audited the IRS & found they owed nearly $50 million. The government-wide number of employee unpaid taxes is over $1.5 billion. The hypocrisy is insane.
Bullish from @vaneck_us
Continued bullish stance on Bitcoin, highlighting that despite vigilance for signs of market overheating, the rally appears to be in its early stages. VanEck reiterates their cycle price target of $180,000 for Bitcoin.
https://t.co/tlBut5WaWv
🇦🇷 MONEY, MONEY, MONEY UNDER MILEI: 11TH STRAIGHT SURPLUS
Argentina posted a $888M trade surplus in October 2024, rebounding from a $442M deficit last year.
Exports soared 30%, fueled by agriculture and manufacturing, while imports grew 4.9%.
Many credit @JMilei’s libertarian policies for driving the country’s economic turnaround by cutting gov spending and removing red tape for business to flourish.
Source: Trading Economics