SpaceX wchodzi na giełdę przy wycenie $1.77T
Odpowiednik około 7.5 biliona złotych.
Mamy zatem największe IPO (Initial Public Offering) w historii:
⇝ Public float: 4-5%
⇝ Insiderzy: ~95% firmy
⇝ Lockup odblokowany 60 dni po IPO
⇝ Cena IPO: $135/share
Kiedy lockup się odblokuje, wpada spora podaż.
Jak to się rozgrywało w przeszłości?
Facebook 2012 był poniżej ceny IPO przez 16 miesięcy.
Mamy tu podobną sytuację.
Z tym, że Musk jako pierwszy bilioner (BILIONER przez "B") to kotwica narracyjna nakręcająca całą spekulację.
W krótkim terminie, w życiu bym tego nie shortował w momencie kiedy ulica wlewa się drzwiami i oknami na rynek z całym popytem.
To finansowe samobójstwo.
Ale w średnim terminie mało które IPO jest na plusie.
Za kilka lat wszyscy będziemy śmiali się z tak niskich wycen.
Może zadziałać jak czarna dziura pogłębiająca straty w innych sektorach rynku.
Proste?
🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING
SpaceX will go public tomorrow at a $1.75T valuation.
The biggest IPO in market history.
And Wall Street just changed the rules right before it happens.
I've been trading for more than 15 years and have never seen them rewrite the rules so urgently:
IPO access now lowered from $500,000 to $2,000 (-99.6% cut).
That means millions of investors can suddenly enter a deal and buy shares tomorrow.
One day before the most expensive IPO in history.
And suddenly...
SpaceX reserved up to 30% of the deal for regular investors.
Three times the normal share.
Why?
Because retail investors need to buy what insiders sell.
And here is the part most people are missing:
SpaceX does not just create demand for SpaceX.
It pulls liquidity out of everything else:
- Retail sells stocks to chase the IPO.
- Funds sell stocks to prepare for forced buying.
- Brokers open access to generate demand.
- Everyone needs cash at the same time.
That is why the market is selling now.
First, insiders create the hype.
Then brokers open the gates.
Then regular investors rush in.
And by the time the crowd realizes what happened, the exit door is already closed.
We’ve seen this before.
2000:
Dotcom IPOs became the symbol of the bubble.
Then Nasdaq collapsed 80%.
2021:
SPACs, Coinbase, Robinhood, Rivian.
Retail thought they were buying the future.
They were buying the exit.
Now the same playbook is back.
Only this time, it is much bigger.
When Wall Street cuts the entry ticket from $500K to $2K right before a $1.75T IPO, they are not giving retail a gift.
They are creating buyers.
Remember:
Insiders need liquidity.
Funds need allocation.
The market needs a dream.
And Wall Street needs someone to hold the bag.
That is what tomorrow is really about.
Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000.
The next call will be even more important.
When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do.
Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
@game_for_one Be careful following @game_for_one theses blindly. Multiple users have called out patterns where he posts strong conviction/hype, buys publicly visible amounts, then sells quickly for 30-60% gains and sometimes follows up with FUD to suppress price so he can reload cheaper.
For all you haters of DeepSeek who think it's just a piece of CCP propaganda riddle me this:
Y didn't a large Chinese corporate, university, or local govt funded startup that has received hundreds of billions of yuan in govt funding to circumvent US high end chip controls and obtain supremacy in AI create DeepSeek?
Y was it some random Hangzhou hedge fund? The CCP has no love for hedge funds, if you have ever traded China u would know how frustrating it is sometimes to trade vs. equity and bond markets in the west.
I don't know shit about AI, but this doesn't sound like the way China likes to "innovate" and the wrong type of people are doing the innovating. These aren't my original thots, thanks @Gavekal.
But the more you question, the less you want to buy US markets trading at an all time high of 230% of GDP, that's higher than the 2000 tech bubble at 175% or 1929 at 130%. And if people rotate out of US stocks where are the cap gains taxes going to come from? Instead of a 3% deficit in 2028 (one of Bessent's 3 arrows), maybe it will be 7% 8% 9% or 10%?
Once you start to question, your mind goes to dangerous places.
Physiognomy never lies.
The face of UK politician @jessphillips tells you all you need to know.
This is the woman who refused the enquiry into the UK rape gangs.
In the UK, serious crimes such as rape require the Crown Prosecution Service's approval for the police to charge suspects.
Who was the head of the CPS when rape gangs were allowed to exploit young girls without facing justice?
Keir Starmer, 2008 -2013
Top G’s Birthday Message.
It’s my birthday and I am 38 years old.
I operate at the highest echelons of masculine performance.
I earn over 1 million dollars a week. My companies are valued in the billions.
I have beautiful children.
I’m strong - in fact, I feel stronger every single day.
I’m surrounded by good people of pure heart.
I am not afraid of anything because I’m as prepared as I could ever be.
Prepared to live and prepared to die.
Why be afraid when you're max prepared?
At this point, it’s up to God.
I don't care anymore.
It’s truly liberating.
My birthday wish is to inspire the same in all of you at home.
To stop being cowards and pussies.
Lies are fueled by cowardice, it is all lies and liars need to control narratives and enslave the world.
Unfortunately, most of you have been supplying the enemy.
The enemy of your children.
The enemy of God.
Whenever cowardice is needed, they look in your direction.
And you never disappoint.
You must be ashamed of yourself.
Do you understand how we can save the world if you all get some balls and simply SAY WHAT YOU THINK?
Even if it is "offensive".
Imagine being a full-grown "man" cucked to the point where you don’t speak what’s on your mind.
There are only two genders.
There’s zero reason homosexuals should march naked in the streets in front of children.
Most music and entertainment are disgusting and degenerate.
SATANISTS RULE THE WORLD.
EVIL CHILD FUCKERS CONTROL THE WESTERN WORLD GOVERNMENTS.
SHOOT ME.
It is my birthday wish for you to be a better version of yourself, and the best version of yourself speaks the truth before God.
There is no point in me speaking to the world, if the world does not take action.
I am told often that I’ve changed millions of lives.
I agree that is true.
The Matrix is cracked, it’s on the ropes, but it’s not yet defeated.
The work isn’t over until it’s over.
So on this joyous occasion, the birthday of Top G, tell the truth.
All day long.
You might just get addicted to it.
Then we can save the world.