Adrian Gray

Center-Right Strategist. AGC Research. Previously: George W. Bush Admin, RNC

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

@ElbridgeColby @realDonaldTrump @PeteHegseth Congrats, Bridge!

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

@mattwhitlock *64% of Democrats

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

In 1930, Republicans won a 2-seat majority in House. It was gone by the time the House was convened into session.

[The Downballot on Bluesky: @the-downballot.com @downballotnews]

With GOP resignations, though, the margins get ever tighter. If Dems flip both #CA13 & #CA45, Rs would hold just a 217-215 edge on the House floor while we await special elections

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

What remains of the Blue Dog Democrats

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

@WillFeltus @CHSommers What would be in that big gap between Purple ball and two red balls? Seems like an unmet need.

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

@mattklewis 1976 Ford
1980 Carter

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

It appears as if most of Trump’s gains with Latino voters has come from married Latino men

Married Latino Men
2020: D+26
2024: R+21

All other Latino voters
2020: D+21
2024: D+21

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

@MichaelBarone @baseballcrank Dem senate candidates in MI, PA, WI ran away from Harris and, to lesser extend, towards Trump and/or his policies. Casey, Baldwin both ran ads tying themselves to Trump (and Slotkin’s closing ad with Bush). Looks like they got 4-6 of their vote from crossover voters (per exits)

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

CC Echelon Insights @PatrickRuffini https://t.co/S7SBjwgJju

[Echelon Insights @EchelonInsights]

Voters are also more likely to say, by a 48-37 margin, they think most of their neighbors will be voting for Trump.

This includes a 23-point margin (51-28) among Independents.

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

The neighbor method has been used by a few pollsters in recent cycles (and decades ago by social researchers to measure racism).

[Matt Bateman @mbateman]

The French Polymarket whale commissioned polls with a specific alternate methodology, the “neighbor method”

1. What a baller

2. What a killer example of how betting markets can surface contrarian, high quality signals

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

Democrat ad spending by issue (%)

Abortion 32
Healthcare 14
Immigration 13

[Aaron Blake @AaronBlake]

In 2022, Dems won voters who said abortion should be “legal in most cases” by 22 points, 60-38.

Today, those voters split 49-49.

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

2024 was an “Indictment of political information complex”

Well said

[Scott Jennings @ScottJenningsKY]

Revenge of the average, everyday working class American. My reaction to Trump’s crushing victory on @cnn

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

@SamWangPhD 1-for-4 in open races...3-for-3 in incumbent races

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

According to NYT estimate

Iowa: R+13
New York: D+13

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

9:40pm in 2016: 54% Trump
9:40pm in 2024: 68% Trump

[The Upshot @UpshotNYT]

Nail-biter.
https://t.co/QysNFdM5SW

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

White/non-white share of the electorate from EARLY exit release (%)
2016: 70/30
2020: 65/35
2024: 71/29

Final
2016: 71/29
2020: 67/33
2024: ??

[PPUSA @PollProjectUSA]

2024 Reuters/Edison Exit Poll

Voting composition by race
White 71%
Hispanic 12%
Black 11%
Other 6%

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

@Brand_Allen Appears they have ~52-48 Harris electorate

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

Kerry prediction market gains after 2004 exit poll release (%)

WI: +32
IA: +26
FL: +25
OH: +23
PA: +19
NH: +19
NM: +14
MI: +12
NV: +10

(Tradesports, 3pm to 541pm)

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

With polls in swing states closing shortly, Polymarket has Harris leading in just one, Michigan, tied in Wisconsin, and is lagging Trump in all other swing states including Pennsylvania and Nevada

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

Are you confident in these exit polls?

[Adrian Gray @adrian_gray]

2024 Polling vs Historical Exit Polling (1960-2020)