Alexander Stoeber

Guiding Housing Decisions on the Central Coast of California

[Edhat @Edhat]

Gov. Gavin Newsom has awarded just over $11.7 million from California’s Homekey+ program to Santa Barbara County, in partnership with DignityMoves, to develop a new “Family Village” housing community for families experiencing homelessness.

https://t.co/TSPwzvKDrL
#edhat #SBnews

[Paul Anleitner @PaulAnleitner]

If you want to know why Project Hail Mary is a cultural phenomenon, there are plenty of good reasons.

But this line is what holds it all together.

It’s not just the foundation of the film’s hopeful impulse.
It is the defining realization of our time.

This IS the vibe shift.

[Jay Alto @theJayAlto]

the internet made knowledge free and focus expensive

[Alexander Stoeber @agentstoeber]

“If you don’t know who the fool at the poker table is, it’s you.”

You’d (hopefully) never place a blind bet without reading the room.

Real estate is similar.
CMA: cards on the table
Market Forecast: chips in vs out
Buyer Demand: buyers in the round

Don’t bet blind.

[Tom Ferry @tomferry]

Make it a strategy session, not a sales pitch.

[Alexander Stoeber @agentstoeber]

Overwhelm is the real source of exhaustion & burnout.

Unkept promises are like termites - except they eat away at self-belief.

That’s where most trust issues are formed.

All these 98% completions create open loops and overwhelm.

[Alexander Stoeber @agentstoeber]

Used Grok Imagine to visualize renovations in this condo

4501 Carpinteria Ave Unit C
Carpinteria, CA
3 beds/2 baths/1800+ sqft
Asking Price: $1,349,000

[Alexander Stoeber @agentstoeber]

@lindsaybitcoin I hear Santa Barbara’s pretty nice 👀

[Cole Jaczko @colejaczko]

Major cheat code in life: Be the one who reaches out. Text first. Call first. Plan first. Most people wait to be chosen. Be the chooser.

Life requires action. Friendship requires effort. Love requires attention.

Stop waiting to be picked & start picking. Your life will be what you make it.

[Barrett Linburg @DallasAptGP]

GOV: We have a housing crisis. Prices are too high.

ME: I agree. Supply is too low.

GOV: So we have a plan. We’re going to subsidize demand.

ME: …What does that mean?

GOV: We’re going to give people money to buy houses.

ME: But there aren't enough houses.

GOV: Right. So we’ll help them bid harder.

ME: If you have 10 people fighting for 1 house, and you give them all cash... the price just goes up.

GOV: Then we’ll give them more cash.

ME: That’s not a solution. That’s inflation.

GOV: It’s "First Time Homebuyer Assistance."

ME: Okay, let’s back up. Why are houses so expensive in the first place?

GOV: Because we made them the perfect investment vehicle.

ME: How?

GOV: First, the 30-year fixed mortgage.

ME: That’s standard, right?

GOV: Only in America. In other countries, rates float. Here, you can lock in a low rate for three decades.

ME: Why would a bank take that risk? If inflation goes up, they lose money.

GOV: Banks don’t take the risk. They sell the loan to us.

ME: To the government?

GOV: To Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. We guarantee the liquidity.

ME: So the taxpayer subsidizes the risk so I can have cheap leverage?

GOV: Correct.

ME: And then I get to deduct the interest?

GOV: Only on the first $750,000 of debt.

ME: That seems... high.

GOV: It used to be a million. We trimmed it.

ME: But wait. If I rent, can I deduct my rent?

GOV: No.

ME: If I buy a small business, can I deduct the interest on the loan?

GOV: It’s complicated.

ME: But if I buy a giant house, I definitely can?

GOV: Absolutely. We wrote it into the tax code.

ME: So you’re paying me to borrow money to buy a bigger house than I need.

GOV: We’re "incentivizing ownership."

ME: What happens when I sell?

GOV: The Capital Gains Exclusion!

ME: How does that work?

GOV: If you sell a stock for a $500,000 profit, you pay taxes.

ME: Roughly 20%.

GOV: If you sell your house for a $500,000 profit?

ME: What do I pay?

GOV: Zero.

ME: Zero tax?

GOV: As long as you lived there for two years.

ME: So housing is the only asset class where I get subsidized 30-year leverage and tax-free profits?

GOV: Pretty sweet deal, right?

ME: So you turned shelter into a speculative financial asset.

GOV: We call it "Generational Wealth."

ME: Okay, so demand is juiced to the moon. Can we at least build more supply to bring prices down?

GOV: Oh, absolutely not.

ME: Why?

GOV: Zoning.

ME: I own land. Can I build a duplex?

GOV: Illegal. Single-family only.

ME: Can I build a granny flat?

GOV: Only if you provide two parking spots and pass a shadow study.

ME: So you made it illegal to build cheaper housing?

GOV: We protect "Neighborhood Character."

ME: But you spend billions on roads and utilities for the suburbs.

GOV: Infrastructure investment.

ME: So you subsidize the expensive sprawl, but ban the cheap density?

GOV: Now you’re getting it.

ME: This system seems designed to keep prices high.

GOV: It is.

ME: But you started this conversation by saying we have an "Affordability Crisis."

GOV: We do. Prices are too high!

ME: So we should lower them?

GOV: No! We can’t lower prices.

ME: Why not?

GOV: Because then the voters lose their "Generational Wealth."

ME: So we need high prices for the voters... and low prices for the buyers?

GOV: Exactly.

ME: That’s a paradox.

GOV: It’s politics.

ME: So what is your actual plan?

GOV: We’re going to give first-time buyers $25,000.

ME: Okay. I’m a seller. I list my house for $400,000.

GOV: Uh huh.

ME: I know every buyer just got a free $25,000 from the government.

GOV: Right.

ME: What do I do?

GOV: You... keep the price the same?

ME: I raise the price to $425,000.

GOV: You wouldn't.

ME: I absolutely would. The buyer can afford it now.

GOV: But that just transfers the subsidy from the poor buyer to the rich seller!

ME: Econ 101.

GOV: We don’t think that will happen.

ME: Just like you didn’t think $7,500 EV credits would make Ford raise the price of the F-150 Lightning by exactly $7,500?

GOV: That was a coincidence.

ME: You are trapping us in a box.

GOV: It’s not a box.

ME: What is it?

GOV: It’s a Single Family Home with a 2.5% mortgage rate that you can never afford to sell.

ME: ...

GOV: Welcome to the American Dream.

[Mark Manson @Markmanson]

Actions are your values made real. You can talk and talk, but at the end of the day, your actions never lie.

[Noozhawk @Noozhawk]

Sewage Spill Leads to East Beach Closure in Santa Barbara
https://t.co/H7BnRiN2K0

[Erika Kirk @MrsErikaKirk]

Go to church.

[Alexander Stoeber @agentstoeber]

@MrSausageGet Thanks for posting this. Do you know if an organization is hosting it?

[Charlie Kirk @charliekirk11]

It’s all about Jesus.

[Navalism @NavalismHQ]

"You don’t get rich by spending your time to save money.

You get rich by saving your time to make money."

@naval

[Alexander Stoeber @agentstoeber]

“Sometimes it is the people no one can imagine anything of who do the things no one can imagine.”
- Alan Turing

https://t.co/oHAJ7ns2uD

[Alexander Stoeber @agentstoeber]

@DefiyantlyFree The VP & Cabinet are already supposed to act as a failsafe in the event of a President becoming incapacitated. The Executive is the branch decided by the country as a whole.

How do we safely & effectively ensure capacity and staff accountability when physicals are already done?

[Alexander Stoeber @agentstoeber]

@catturd2 Is there a Moneyball analogy for how much Democrats spend per vote? Based on the reports for Trump vs. Kamala, it seemed like the Democrats spent far more to get less votes. Seems like a close comparison to the way the MLB teams paid for "vibes" rather than runs. @DataRepublican

[Alexander Stoeber @agentstoeber]

@Holden_Culotta Imperfect action beats perfect inaction. Taking a stand to turn the tides on our obesity crisis is a no-brainer. High-fructose corn syrup alone is objectively causing more harm than good. Removing orange juice from food banks would single-handedly make a dent in child obesity.