Atul Goyal 🎮 🏌️‍♂️🚘

21+ yrs Japan tech/gaming equity research | Seen on CNBC, Bloomberg | Quoted in WSJ, FT on Nintendo, Sony, Softbank | Uncovering multi-baggers.

[Atul Goyal 🎮 🏌️‍♂️🚘 @agoyal00]

This is what @Grok explained when I asked as a follow up -
“Yes, Atul Goyal’s comment about SoftBank’s contributions to OpenAI being a “related party transaction” is accurate and well-supported by public analyst reports and disclosures.26
Quick recap of Atul’s post (from the exact thread)
Atul contrasts Anthropic’s $30B ARR (run-rate ~$2.5B/month in March 2026, up 3.3x from Dec 2025, all external revenue, no related-party deals) with OpenAI’s $24B ARR ($2B/month in March). He claims a “big chunk” of OpenAI’s revenue comes from SoftBank as a related-party transaction for “some undefined services (not yet stated) in Japan,” and that stripping it out would make OpenAI’s numbers “much smaller.” He also notes the valuation disconnect (Anthropic last at $380B with Goldman charging 15-20% premiums for shares vs. OpenAI at ~$850B with easier allocations) and the dramatic shift in momentum since Anthropic didn’t even exist when ChatGPT launched.0
The SoftBank “related party” claim — is it true?
Yes — this is not speculation. Independent analyst research (Jefferies) and SoftBank’s own filings explicitly flag it:
•SoftBank pays OpenAI approximately $3 billion per year for rights/services tied to the Japan market.26
•At the time of the Jefferies note (March 2026), this equated to roughly 15% of OpenAI’s reported December revenue.28
•Because SoftBank is a major strategic investor in OpenAI (≈11% stake after pouring in $30B+ via Vision Fund 2, with cumulative investments exceeding $64B including follow-ons), these payments are classified as related-party transactions in accounting and analyst scrutiny.12
This is not pure arm’s-length customer revenue. It stems from a commercial partnership where SoftBank Corp (the Japanese mobile/telecom unit) and OpenAI are rolling out AI services for local enterprises in Japan. SoftBank is effectively paying for distribution rights, co-development, or priority access in its home market — a deal that also helps SoftBank chase “actual revenue” from its massive OpenAI bet.17
OpenAI’s overall ARR context aligns with Atul’s numbers: the company publicly reported crossing $20B ARR during 2025, with recent updates showing monthly revenue hitting ~$2B (annualized $24B+ range) by early 2026. The SoftBank payment is therefore a material, non-organic slice of that total.8
Why this matters (Atul’s broader point)
•Revenue quality: Anthropic’s $30B run-rate is presented as 100% third-party (enterprise + consumer usage of Claude). OpenAI’s includes this large, investor-linked component. Removing the ~$3B annual SoftBank flow would materially lower OpenAI’s “pure” external ARR, exactly as Atul says.
•Accounting nuance: Related-party transactions must be disclosed (and often scrutinized) because they may not reflect normal market pricing. SoftBank’s filings and analyst notes treat the OpenAI payments this way.34
•Valuation optics: Atul’s jab about Goldman’s allocation premiums and the secondary market enthusiasm (or lack thereof) for OpenAI shares is harder to quantify publicly, but it reflects real secondary-market dynamics reported around the $850B+ valuation rounds. Investor appetite and perceived growth quality play into that.
Bottom line: Atul’s specific claim on the SoftBank related-party revenue is factually correct and echoes what sell-side analysts (Jefferies) and financial disclosures have already highlighted. It’s a legitimate point when comparing “clean” revenue trajectories between the two frontier AI leaders. The Japan deal is real, sizable, and tied directly to SoftBank’s ownership — not just a random customer contract.”

[Atul Goyal 🎮 🏌️‍♂️🚘 @agoyal00]

hmm,,,so Seamus Blackley was onto something!

'I expect that the new CEO, Asha Sharma, her job is going to be as a palliative care doctor who slides Xbox gently into the night.'"

Seamus Blackley (Xbox co-founder) on Asha Sharma’s appointment. He said it in a GamesBeat interview shortly after her appointment as CEO (replacing Phil Spencer), framing her role as easing Xbox's decline rather than reviving...

[Atul Goyal 🎮 🏌️‍♂️🚘 @agoyal00]

@TiffanyFong

[Atul Goyal 🎮 🏌️‍♂️🚘 @agoyal00]

@DataChaz

[Atul Goyal 🎮 🏌️‍♂️🚘 @agoyal00]

@krishdotdev

[Atul Goyal 🎮 🏌️‍♂️🚘 @agoyal00]

@ChrissGPT

[Lgamer0209 @Lgamer02090]

@Genki_JPN it was total trash and I say it as a nintedo fan
- It felt like Third Party Showcase
- The Zelda OOT teaser was terrible
- There were only like three nintendo games
- Duskblood got did dirty
- Still not a real reason to buy the console besides Bananza or MKW.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@rocketisfine @racchava @gwestr We tried. Nintendo won’t license it to us.

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

The UK won two world wars and Japan lost one horrifically. Yet it’s Japan that is still a culturally homogeneous, high-trust, low-crime country.

Mass immigration does more damage to your nation than being hit with a nuclear bomb.

[Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 @Noahpinion]

Expats in Japan: "Oh but no matter what you do, you'll never really be accepted as Japanese"

Yeah that's because you're NOT Japanese. Instead try being accepted as a human being, which is actually very easy to do in Japan.

[Atul Goyal 🎮 🏌️‍♂️🚘 @agoyal00]

@aleabitoreddit Have you studied what “Nasdaq whale” did in 2021?

[Atul Goyal 🎮 🏌️‍♂️🚘 @agoyal00]

💯

[Kennedy Clark @younghavok]

The switch 2 is really the console for gamers. First party games coming in droves. 3rd party games coming in droves.

All while being the cheapest current gen console on the market and currently offering a great deal for new players.

Nintendo, after all these years…

GETS IT

[Nintendo of America @NintendoAmerica]

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 is coming to Nintendo Switch 2 on Oct 23!

Stay tuned for more information, including pre-order details, coming later this summer.

[Atul Goyal 🎮 🏌️‍♂️🚘 @agoyal00]

It’s ok.

Right now the $$$ is flowing into AI infrastructure/ Memory / Bottleneck trades.
Watch Netflix stock price ($NFLX MC $360b) to understand when the winds change. Nintendo ($NTDOY) is only $50b now in MC And c. $32b in EV.

Micron can theoretically buy all of Nintendo for an EV of $30-32b. That’s 3% of Micron’s market cap. Pocket change. Of course. That’s not the right partner. Nor is that ever going to happen.

But at these valuations and trough multiples, it will be insane if no corporate in Entertainment industry gets out there to pick up a sizable stake in this.

🤔

[Atul Goyal 🎮 🏌️‍♂️🚘 @agoyal00]

This is interesting

Also got it from Nintendo - that
40% of the gamers who bought Tomodachi Life - are using it on Switch 2.

What!
So maybe the “low tier ratio” on Switch 2 is not as low (vs. Switch original) as it seemed in Dec Q and Mar Q sales (for Jun 2025 Q and Sep Q, S2 software sales were bang in line with sw sales on Switch in 2017…)

[TenchInvest @10_ch_10]

Circana is apparently including their own projections for digital sales now (Nintendo don't report them themselves) which means more Nintendo games at higher places. Tomodachi Life was the best-selling game in April, is already #9 YTD + Pokopia is #4 YTD. $NTDOY

[Atul Goyal 🎮 🏌️‍♂️🚘 @agoyal00]

So very true.
Reminds me of the days when I watched it night time at home in Tokyo in 2000s…

This was the most remarkable and unbelievable thing to watch.

A hallmark of Japan’s high trust societal norm.
Memorable and unparalleled.

[NOBUNAGA🇯🇵🏯_夏樹蒼依 @japan_nobunaga]

There's a TV show in Japan
that has run for over 30 years.

The premise: a parent sends
their two or three-year-old child
on an errand. Alone.

To the store. To buy tofu.
Across actual streets.

A camera crew follows secretly,
hidden, never helping,
as a tiny human in a backpack
completes a task most countries
wouldn't let a child attempt.

The kid cries. The kid forgets.
The kid gets distracted by a dog.
And then the kid comes home,
holding the tofu, glowing.

It's the most-watched thing
of its kind in the country.

Americans who discover it
cannot believe it's legal.

In Japan, we cannot believe
it's remarkable.

['Necro' Felipe #UnivNintendo @necrolipe]

"Sorry"

[Atul Goyal 🎮 🏌️‍♂️🚘 @agoyal00]

@magusstrife83 You’re spot on @magusstrife83

[Atul Goyal 🎮 🏌️‍♂️🚘 @agoyal00]

@ChillTAbtc Openrouter has a lot of limitations. This data excludes a lot of paid relationships and contracts. Prob captures most of low end pricing or free usage market data…

[Atul Goyal 🎮 🏌️‍♂️🚘 @agoyal00]

@firstadopter Machines pick up this and trade on it
Not only that LLMs use these published reports as Gospel without applying critical reasoning
And helped spread the FUD far and wide
Quite reprehensible
A laughing stock amongst those who know

[tae kim @firstadopter]

It’s almost as if Bloomberg saw the massive Switch 2 doubling console sellouts in Japan after the pricing news and realized their previous conflated negative manufactured narrative of a 30% production cut looked ridiculous, so they had to reverse course and go positive. Absolute clown show.

[Atul Goyal 🎮 🏌️‍♂️🚘 @agoyal00]

@PaulGaleNetwork And we are just starting

With most of the world actually short Nintendo as “memory cost hurts Nintendo / Sony the most” !?