Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza

Research Economist at Banco de México. Views are my own.

[Deportes RCN @DeportesRCN]

Qué momento. Qué emocionante y emotivo ver a Yeison López llorando de la alegría junto a su madre, su hermano y su padre. Gracias, Yeison. #ColombiaEnParís2024 🇨🇴

[FEDEPESASCOL @FEDEPESASCOL]

! SUBCAMPEONES OLÍMPICOS! 🥈🥈
Gracias Colombia 🇨🇴 🏋🏻‍♀️
¿Cuántos ❤️ por nuestros pesistas?

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@cdbusta Enhorabuena, profe Christiano! Pero no veo rigideces nominales ni una regla de Taylor por ningún lado. Qué brujería es esta?

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@CamargoFelipe1 @JonSteinsson @R2Rsquared 1) is a crucial part of the NK paradigm, but 2) is not. High unemployment can cause lower wages, marginal costs, and inflation. This is different from saying that unemployment is the main source of movements in marginal costs and inflation. See also https://t.co/RciDTGNIqw

[David Andolfatto @dandolfa]

Ah, the smell of never-ending macro debates in the air.
Today's edition: the Phillips curve (PC).
There are two notions of PC:
[1] statistical; and
[2] theoretical.
One can plainly see the statistical PC in the data. Sometimes. For example https://t.co/qusdc0ur97

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@CamargoFelipe1 @JonSteinsson @R2Rsquared That expression results from two "assumptions": 1) Inflation is the present value of real marginal costs 2) These are proportional to the unemployment/output gap. If 1) is correct and 2) is not, you can still have inflation going down without a negative output gap.

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@1954swilliamson What he plots is consistent with the textbook New-Keynesian model, though.

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@GiardaMacro @UPFBarcelona @CREIResearch Felicitaciones, parceros!

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@ricco_giovanni @FT But disagreement seems natural in a field where N is small and fixed, and T is short.

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@ricco_giovanni @FT Nice thread. Let me disagree about the diagnostic. We can find 5 papers for each question you pose, each with a different answer. So empirical macro doesn't lack answers; it lacks consensus: the only honest answer to every question is "it depends."

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@sebastiangomez8 @Dr_AnnaLusardi @GiovanniGallip1 @ubcVSE Ome sebas, felicitaciones!

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@socampdi @juanherreno @UCSDEcon Buena esa parce, felicitaciones!

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@paulabeltrans El primogénito! Felicitaciones, Beltrán!

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@daniela_vidart @SorryToBeKurt @LagakosDavid @ValerieRamey7 Buena esa, agonía!

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@GaetanoGaballo I'm a big fan of your work, especially your paper with Luigi. Congrats, Gaetano!

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@IvanWerning But in his view, it was the byproduct of info. frictions resulting in different perceptions of prices. In your model, the disagreement is fundamental, driven by differences between firms' production inputs and HH's consumption basket, and propagates both real and nominal shocks.

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@IvanWerning Interesting paper! Your discussion on disagreement reminded me of Friedman's presidential address, where he argued that the disagreement between households and firms was a source of non-neutrality.

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@t_holden @pontus_rendahl It depends on the model you have in mind. In the standard NKM, the relationship between inflation and real marginal costs is "structural." However, the NKPC relating inflation to output only arises in equilibrium.

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@pontus_rendahl I wonder about the usefulness of "core" measures after considering all these indirect effects. For example, energy shocks increase workers' living costs which may, in turn, demand higher wages, leading to an increase in marginal costs and inflation in "non-core" sectors.

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@pontus_rendahl Figure 15 of this paper https://t.co/GSaMScTfoh

[Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza @agutieda]

@mfariacastro I use Drawboard PDF with my Surface for reading and annotating. It works really well with the Surface pen and you can save and edit pdfs afterwards. I haven’t tried it while teaching with Zoom but I guess you could just share screen and draw in real time.