allinonthechair

[allinonthechair @aiotcBitcoin]

This is a great site:

https://t.co/JtvMcFCD5o

[allinonthechair @aiotcBitcoin]

@BitPaine @ODELLXYZ Blue check is returning to "stay humble and stack sats"

[allinonthechair @aiotcBitcoin]

@CryptoCon_ Always love your analysis... we'll see if this is a mid-cycle correction or a typical cycle. Time will tell.

[allinonthechair @aiotcBitcoin]

@MacroScope17 Did he wear the flag pin and part his hair on the side?

[allinonthechair @aiotcBitcoin]

@dotkrueger Not according to Mike $10k McGlone @mikemcglone11

[David @david_eng_mba]

$BTC: When the P-10 Floor Rises, Cheap Becomes Convex.

$BTC at ~$63.7K:

Spot/P-10floor: ~1.0x
Today’s P-10 floor: ~$63.7K
5-year P-10 floor: ~$267K
Entry ER: 34%/yr
Buy hurdle: 16%/yr

5-year floor calc

Today’s floor: $63,723
5-year P-10 floor: $266,877

Multiple:
Y axis: [266,877/63,723]=4.19x
X Axis: [63K/63.7] = 1x

MT/LT Decision: ACCUMULATE / DEPLOY / CONTINUE

[Frank @FrankAFetter]

bitcoin MACD is flipping positive. the market is due for a decent relief bounce here $btc

[Oz @AskCryptoWealth]

Another indication why this is so similar to 2019-20 mid cycle correction rather than a 2022 bear market.

The MFI has not reset to 20 or below which marks bear bottoms.. But here another big divergence is showing just as it did after the Covid crash..

[allinonthechair @aiotcBitcoin]

@tomyoungjr Thomas Young everybody!

[David @david_eng_mba]

806 days after the halving, $BTC has never been this cheap at this point in the cycle.

At the 57% mark of every prior cycle, price sat at or above the power-law trend:

2013 cycle: +0.06σ
2017 cycle: +0.49σ
2021 cycle: -0.54σ
Now: -1.81σ

The "peak-risk window" arrived and there's no peak.

The 4-year cycle is dead, killed by ETF flows.

This is the cheapest mid-cycle entry ever recorded.

[Frank @FrankAFetter]

the downside hasn’t been as bad as in the past; i think it’s the number of perceived bottoms that has caused the apathy. fourth times a charm? $btc

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

The most bullish Bitcoin chart is the one that keeps grinding higher while everyone stares at the spot price.

The 4-year moving average of realized price is the market's smoothed cost basis.

It is the slow, load-bearing floor under the entire asset, and it is still compounding at nearly 30% a year after a full decade of adoption.

YoY CAGR of the 4Y realized price MA:

2014: $101.47 - baseline
2015: $173.33 - 70.82%
2016: $259.08 - 49.47%
2017: $576.40 - 122.48%
2018: $1,771.46 - 207.33%
2019: $2,954.45 - 66.78%
2020: $4,405.83 - 49.13%
2021: $8,876.68 - 101.48%
2022: $13,246.03 - 49.22%
2023: $17,064.55 - 28.83%
2024: $23,076.40 - 35.23%
2025: $30,521.35 - 32.26%
2026 YTD: $34,345.61 - 29.39%

Read the bottom cluster again.

Four halvings, three "generational" crashes, and roughly 9,000 obituaries later, the smoothed floor still compounds at 30% a year.

The explosive early-cycle numbers cooled off and the metric barely noticed.

Your savings account pays 4%.

The floor under Bitcoin compounds at 30%.

The volatility you keep flinching at is just the entry fee for that seat.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

I suspect that gold’s correlated behavior will be temporary as gold has fallen out of favor after it went vertical last year. The fast money used to be in Bitcoin, and then it left for gold, and now it’s chasing semiconductors. The chart below shows how gold’s real rate model fell apart in 2022 when gold became a proxy for global liquidity. With global M2 now slowing from a growth rate of 12% at the peak to 7%, gold is understandably weaker. But it’s too weak considering the modest deceleration in M2.

[David @david_eng_mba]

Bitcoin Flow Elasticity: 2.79x

Spot: $61.3K
Liquid float: 2.5M BTC
Liquid-float value: $153B

$61.3K × 2.5M BTC = $153B liquid float value

Base 1:1 float math:

$10B ÷ 2.5M BTC = $4,000/BTC

Measured elasticity:

$4,000 × 2.79 = $11,160/BTC

So:

$10B net absorption ≈ +$11.1K/BTC

That moves BTC from:

$61.3K → ~$72.4K

Why?

Price is set by marginal flow, not market cap.

Thin float turns small absorption into large repricing.

When net flows flip positive, Bitcoin moves fast.

[allinonthechair @aiotcBitcoin]

What do you think @Giovann35084111 — Fidelity posting on the Bitcoin Power Law.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

That same logic applies to Bitcoin as well. It’s getting closer to its power law support line. Again, I don’t see the catalyst yet for a reversal.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

That same logic applies to Bitcoin as well. It’s getting closer to its power law support line. Again, I don’t see the catalyst yet for a reversal.

[allinonthechair @aiotcBitcoin]

@dotkrueger @edstromandrew Sort of surprised Andy is resorting to baiting for attention. Didn’t see him as that type of person.

[Fred Krueger #BIP-110 @dotkrueger]

The key feature isn't simply that 2026 is "less bad."

It's that every time selling becomes intense, buyers step in much sooner than they did in 2022.

[allinonthechair @aiotcBitcoin]

@BitPaine @ODELLXYZ Remember when "blue check" scolded the less enlightened to "buy the real S*%#, not that fake S*&$"... did he realize that ten31 investing in his perception of a "pure Bitcoin company" with all it's counterparty risk isn't the "Real S*%#"?

[Frank @FrankAFetter]

bitcoin is down 50% from its all-time high price, yet the number of long-term holder coins is at an all-time high. this is also with half the supply sitting in loss. bullish.

[David @david_eng_mba]

52% of all Bitcoin supply is now underwater.

That means the majority of $BTC is now priced below its last on-chain transfer price.

This is capitulation.

The same loss-dominant zone appeared near major bottoms:

2015
2018
2020
2022

When the majority of supply is underwater, strong hands typically accumulate.