AIx Capital

Founded in 2014, AIx Capital Group is a responsible, data-driven AI infra and tech investor translating over a decade of research into sustainable alpha.

[Suhail Ahmad @SuhailAhmad]

Please no, let's focus on AI infra and space.

SpaceX $SPCX is said to be developing a handset powered by artificial intelligence. A prototype of the device, which would be slimmer than an iPhone, was shown off to some investors before the IPO last month.

AI companies, including OpenAI, have been weighing the creation of hardware to change how people interact with their models.

[AIx Capital @aixcapital]

Today, we celebrate #CanadaDay and recognise the people, communities and businesses that make Canada such a vibrant place to live and work.

We wish everyone celebrating a safe, enjoyable and happy Canada Day.

[AIx Capital @aixcapital]

While the milestone suggests AI companies are beginning to cover the cost of their capital spending, the margins are thin. Depreciation charges still consume more than two thirds of revenue, leaving a small buffer to cover other costs such as power, labor and financing. 

🧵3/3

[AIx Capital @aixcapital]

Revenue from AI may have reached a tipping point, with hundreds of billions of dollars tech companies are spending on it may finally be economically sustainable, according to a new Bloomberg report.

🧵1/3

[AIx Capital @aixcapital]

Global AI sales, excluding China, reached $25 billion in the first quarter of 2026, exceeding the industry’s estimated $21 billion in depreciation costs tied to investments in data centers and chips for the second consecutive quarter.

🧵2/3

[AIx Capital @aixcapital]

Micron $MU trailing 12-month earnings per share.

[Daniel Romero @HyperTechInvest]

UBS lifts $AMD to $670 from $455

Analyst Timothy Arcuri sees EPYC CPU racks gaining strong adoption, citing:

• AMD’s edge in core count
• Strong multithreading performance
• The strength of the x86 software ecosystem

He expects AMD to take outsized incremental share, given $INTC roadmap and supply problems

Key Estimates

• 2026 CPU server revenue held at $16B
• 2027 raised to $23B, from $21B
• 2028 raised to $29B, from $27B
• 2030 CPU server revenue raised to $50B, from $41B

UBS assumes a 60/40 x86-vs-ARM split in the standalone segment, while still conceding that $ARM takes around 70% of the head-node server TAM by 2030

[AIx Capital @aixcapital]

RT @SuhailAhmad: "This is the smallest AI development system in the world, capable of running models up to 200 billion parameters locally,…

[Lisa Su @LisaSu]

Wonderful trip to the UK meeting our partners across industry, government, and academia. Honored to meet @Keir_Starmer and visit @Cambridge_Uni @imperialcollege and our @AMD teams. The UK has world-class research, exceptional talent and a vibrant AI ecosystem. Excited for what we will build together.

[Suhail Ahmad @SuhailAhmad]

Our tech heavy portfolio only lost 1% with Nasdaq down almost 5%!

Combination of taking profits all week, active hedging, and intra day dip buying.

Data-driven active management 💪

Look forward to sharing more insights on position sizing and risk management from our team @aixcapital

[Suhail Ahmad @SuhailAhmad]

AI dominates 93% of SpaceX’s $SPCX stated TAM and 47% of S-1 language, but it contributed only 17% of revenue and posted a -449% FCF margin in 2025.

PitchBook’s analysis of the nearly 300-page filing finds a company presenting itself primarily as an AI infrastructure play, with AI-related terms accounting for 47% of segment-specific language and 93% of the company’s stated $28.5 trillion TAM.

The economic reality tells a different story: The AI segment generated just 6.7% of revenue, excluding advertising, and posted a $14 billion free cash flow loss in 2025, while Starlink’s connectivity business delivered 61% of revenue and virtually all of the company’s free cash flow at a 63% EBITDA margin.

The filing also disclosed that Anthropic will pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month for access to its AI computing infrastructure through May 2029, a $15 billion annual contract that nearly matches the combined revenue of SpaceX’s space and connectivity businesses.

Meanwhile, the company carries $29.1 billion in total debt including a $20 billion bridge loan maturing just 15 months after the expected IPO and the S-1 omits key metrics like subscriber churn, Falcon 9 launch costs, and AI segment unit economics.

[Suhail Ahmad @SuhailAhmad]

Why modern IPOs (mostly) are a dud!

Have a look at two consumer EV startups Tesla $TSLA and Rivian $RIVN from similar eras, who emerged in different fundraising environments.

After the initial euphoria and a few quarters of earnings (or lack of) reality... don't be surprised to see SpaceX $SPCX stock to be a laggard.

Chart source: Odin

[AIx Capital @aixcapital]

Big IF for Zoom $ZM which has struggled with product innovation and should’ve been doing this two years ago!

Even greater meeting data sets sit in Google workspace $GOOG and Microsoft $MSFT

[Rohan Paul @rohanpaul_ai]

Ali Ghodsi, the cofounder and CEO of Databricks, says Zoom has a massive chance to build an AI-first product, that could seriously disrupt the traditional enterprise SAAS.

Because it sits on the largest datasets of meeting videos and transcripts.

The big pain in enterprise software is data entry and coordination. Zoom already sits on the raw input: every customer call and internal meeting, plus the video, audio, and transcript.

If Zoom can reliably pull out decisions, context, and action items, then write them back into the right system of record automatically, as an AI-first workflow layer, it becomes the front door for work. That would replace lots of separate SAAS tools that exist mainly to collect notes and updates.

---

Video from 'Bg2 Pod' YT channel (link in comment)

[AIx Capital @aixcapital]

If Anthropic Claude AI were to join the Office team... lol

Happy Victoria Day long weekend! 🇨🇦

[Chief Nerd @TheChiefNerd]

🚨 JENSEN HUANG: “The amount of energy that we need for computing is probably 1,000x more than we currently have.”

[Suhail Ahmad @SuhailAhmad]

Anthropic shys away from pushing a trillion dollar valuation.

[Bloomberg @business]

Shares of Chinese AI model developers surged as Jensen Huang joining President Donald Trump’s trip to Beijing https://t.co/oCqoNay3VV

[AIx Capital @aixcapital]

Compute is becoming a macro asset class. 📈

CME Group is partnering with Silicon Data to launch GPU futures later this year. AI builders and cloud providers can finally hedge their compute costs like a commodity.

The era of "Commoditized Intelligence" is officially here.

[Cadence @Cadence]

.@nvidia CEO Jensen Huang highlights Cadence Palladium as the foundation behind their Blackwell architecture. Operating the largest installation of Palladium platforms anywhere, NVIDIA's success is a powerful reminder of what we can achieve together. https://t.co/lKx6Ypx7F9

[altan tutar @altantutar]

London robotics, listed by total funding raised:

1/ Wayve (King's Cross) $2.58B
2/ Automata (Old Bailey) $152M
3/ Skyports (Battersea) $151M
4/ Humanoid (Paddington) $50M
5/ Greyparrot (Bermondsey) $27M
6/ SLAMcore (South Kensington) $26M
7/ Recycleye (Old Street) $23M
8/ Cron AI (London) $7M
9/ Kaikaku (Bloomsbury) $4M
10/ Shadow Robot (Kentish Town) n/a