Allen

Investor🗽

[Allen @aj_oommen]

why give up? be unreasonable. fight.

[Allen @aj_oommen]

highly recommend reading to understand the current US interest rate predicament

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

Howard Marks with a new memo on fiscal-driven inflation and related matters:
https://t.co/uxGwbP5Rte

[Allen @aj_oommen]

@ryQuant @ColeMacro @Strive Pretty sure Strategy is the one copying them now - also mNAV and SATA at par vs STRC speaks for itself . Being mentally flexible is generally a good trait to have :)

[Allen @aj_oommen]

@data168 thats called dolphin sense !

[Allen @aj_oommen]

[the moment of inspiration is fleeting, act on it with haste]

[Allen @aj_oommen]

@FinFreedom414 Do you think the mNAV will continue to be elevated? If so, why?

[Allen @aj_oommen]

Great to see more companies working on real world science problems with AI!

[Liam Fedus @LiamFedus]

We built high-throughput materials labs in Menlo Park to create a loop between experiments and models. The labs generate fresh data, the models learn from it, and then help us decide what to try next.

Using only 1,300 H200s, plus months of our experimental data, we mid-trained and RL’d an open-source model to surpass GPT-6 Astra on our analysis benchmark. We call it Neon.

This is real footage from our lab. We’re focusing first on hard problems in materials science, including superconductors, magnets, and semiconductor materials.

Read our blog posts below.

[Allen @aj_oommen]

"you gave me peace, in a lifetime of war"

[Allen @aj_oommen]

@mc_khristina @ejuline @gerovich @APompliano 😆

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Regret the tone of my post on data centers yesterday.

What I should have said:

There were reasonable concerns about data centers 18ish months ago: water, taxes, jobs, electricity prices, the environment and what they would do to small towns. Well-structured data center projects have largely addressed these concerns today and we should be celebrating this.

On balance, data centers are awesome for America in every way.

On water: U.S. data centers use a fraction of what golf courses use. A lot of the numbers from 18 months ago were off by over 1000x. Newer data centers use closed-loop systems or recycled water. Should be required by every town approving a data center project.

On taxes: looking only at sales-tax exemptions, as Ronan Farrow did, is the wrong way to evaluate this. Data centers pay significant property taxes. Loudoun County, which is the wealthiest county in America, now collects on the order of $1 billion a year from data centers. In Quincy, WA, data centers are more than half the property-tax roll. Over time, property taxes can go to zero while government spending increases in these towns.

On jobs: this has been unambiguously awesome for blue collar Americans. Demand for electricians, plumbers, welders, HVAC techs, and contractors has gone vertical, and it is not a one-time construction job. These buildings get upgraded and expanded over time. That is why the building trades are fighting for them, and why some unions are now treating opposition to data centers as a reason not to endorse politicians.

On power: the original fear was that households would pay for the incremental electricity demand in the form of higher prices. That is why the ratepayer-protection deals and the new large-load tariffs exist. The right structure is: the data center brings or pays for new generation and signs a contract long enough that existing customers are protected. Where that is happening, utilities are cutting or freezing residential rates and saying so on the record. Where it is not, people are right to object. Electricity prices are going down *today* in a number of large states because of data centers.

On the environment: data centers overwhelming use natural gas today, which is the cleanest power source outside of nuclear, solar and wind. And the companies that are building the data centers are committed to carbon neutrality such that an equivalent amount of solar will likely be built. Maybe more importantly, the data centers need batteries to function effectively and these batteries can also sell energy back into the grid (which recently prevented blackouts in Texas). Over time, data centers will run on solar plus batteries.

On the towns: Poverty in Quincy, WA fell from 29% to 6%. Data center taxes paid for a new high school, a hospital, a library, police and fire stations. This is happening in many left for dead former mill and farm towns that had no other bidder for the land.

Data centers are actually reindustrializing parts of America and creating the kind of working-class jobs both parties have spent decades claiming to support. That should not be a partisan issue. Data centers can and should be awesome for America and they increasingly, overwhelmingly are. Supporting the outsourcing of data centers to China will likely age just as well as support for the outsourcing of high quality, blue collar manufacturing jobs to China has aged.

When the facts change, I change my mind. I hope that reasonable people who had good faith reasons to oppose data centers at least consider updating their beliefs given the change in the facts over the last 18 months. This really matters for America.

I will say I also think the idea of making data centers beautiful is a good one that has yet to be implemented. Data centers should be just as beautiful as Grand Central Station. We can learn a lot from the railroad buildout. Neoclassical revival ftw.

Might write up open-weight AI tomorrow as this is equally essential to America.

[Allen @aj_oommen]

Amazing for Louisiana and the South - particularly for blue collar workers!

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Starbase Louisiana will ultimately have over a dozen launch towers, enabling more than 30 Starship flights per day and making it the biggest launch site on Earth!

SpaceX makes sci-fi real.

[Allen @aj_oommen]

I note reclaim of the 21 day ema and CIA director visit to Russia. Just doing commons . NFA.

[Allen @aj_oommen]

seeing elevated activity on $KYIV - dark pool volumes in increasing and $2.3M call premium (20x normal) on June 26. Ukraine deal incoming ?

[Allen @aj_oommen]

@HermesLux they are hitting the ATM?

[Allen @aj_oommen]

@ThinkingUSD @HyperliquidX @entropyIO this is false, anthropic is on binance (and was on it when Ventuals stopped being a provider on hyperliquid)

https://t.co/1TwJCgzcVr

[Allen @aj_oommen]

I find @NYDIG 's weekly commentary as some of the most insightful in the industry. Some take aways from the latest issue: https://t.co/XVHKnPNm3X

- on bond purchase announcement and related weaker dollar with gold and $BTC higher: "investors were reacting less to the purchases themselves than to what they revealed about Washington’s willingness to counter elevated long-term rates"

- stablecoin liquidity increased last week, but it was mostly USDC , indicating "that the rally has [not] recruited the broader offshore cohort that typically relies on Tether"

- $BTC slumber may be over : "Even if bitcoin retraces some of this week’s gains, the conversation is increasingly about how to build exposure on weakness, not how to get out"

[Allen @aj_oommen]

Nice article by Citadel Securities: https://t.co/y1wxsm7ICK
some highlights
- validation of Jevons paradox as compute price maintain / rise while token price decrease.
- compute looks to be increasingly acquiring the characteristics of a commodity
- earnings growth looks exceptionally strong at the macro level and for all the rhetoric of exuberance surrounding AI, the expectations embedded in cross-asset markets are do not appear euphoric

[Allen @aj_oommen]

Prescient insight by Jeff. Clarity has been sidelined, but $BTC marches forward. Once a worthwhile idea or technology is released into the world, it is almost impossible to put it back in the box

[Jeff Park @dgt10011]

My contrarian take: Bitcoin will benefit when CLARITY fails. It will be shamelessly clear that the political class has been fully captured, choosing institutional cartels over consumer prosperity

Bitcoin is the best escape hatch from sanctioned debasement and organized plunder

[Allen @aj_oommen]

Piper Sandler PT at $65

[Allen @aj_oommen]

interesting price and options action on $FIGR . 200SMA sitting at $37

[Allen @aj_oommen]

@ZynxBTC ya, the general take with the tech investors is that even if opensource and chinese models get more raw token usage, ANT and OAI will still get the lions share of revenue