Alex | The Puffin

Independent investor. Writing about companies, markets, the economy and investments. Author of Puffin Research

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

Most of the last 15 years, capital ran downhill: services, consumption, businesses next to the end customer.

That era is ending.

Yields are a real cost again. The opportunity is moving back up the production structure — mining, energy, materials, infrastructure.

I’m a private investor writing that shift in public. Thread.

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

$NVDA : down 29% since early October, roughly $1.6tn of market cap gone and a sixth straight weekly loss, the longest run since 2012. Huang resigned Thursday, CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO, and results are Tuesday with consensus at $108.9bn revenue, +91% y/y.

Most of the slide came before the scandal. Rates kept rising and the midterms brought dozens of ballot measures that could slow data centre builds. The big buyers, the neoclouds, pay for chips with borrowed money, so that funding side is what I'd watch.

Back of envelope: $1.6tn being 29% puts it near $3.9tn now, about 9x that quarter annualised. Not stretched if the numbers hold. Caveat: an interim CEO who's also the CFO may guide cautiously, and a soft outlook Tuesday might say more about the transition than about demand.

Does the founder leaving matter more to you than who's paying for the chips?

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

@InvezzPortal On those numbers US-Bund 10y widened from ~161bp to ~176bp in a week. IEA has Dated Brent down 32% from $136 on Oct 8 to ~$93.
Crude's down a third in five weeks, so this selloff is about the Fed path.

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

@GENetwork_ Annie-2 flowed 57.2 MMscf/d stabilised, capped by surface equipment, and Amplitude says the campaign hasn't touched its contingency yet.
Nestor is the exploration well in the campaign, so that's where the real risk sits for the Equinox.

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

@NourHammoury The 52mb build was all at sea. Oil on water +86mb, while on-land stocks still fell to the lowest since at least 2016 and OECD stocks dropped 47mb.
Barrels on tankers aren't in tanks yet. I'd want one month of onshore builds before calling the premium gone.

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

@JavierBlas @IEA IEA has European diesel near $180/bbl, still 77% above pre-war, while Gulf crude flows are back to 82%. Refinery runs fell to 81.3 mb/d in October.
A crude surplus doesn't fix diesel until runs come back. IEA pencils in 84.7 mb/d by December, so that's the number I'm watching.

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

@Swedish_uranium Gold closed $3,885 Thu, -2.9%, with the US 10y up 27bp since Nov 5 to 5.10%.
Newmont's Q3 AISC was $1,454, so ~$2,400/oz of margin is still there. What changed is a 5% risk-free rate to compare it against.

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

@fedhabit Add the MSTR leg. It closed $114.41 Thu, -6.5%. Strategy sized the MSCI deletion at ~13m shares, ~$1.5bn at that price, vs JPM's $2.8bn.
That selling lands by the Nov 30 close. Does Saylor keep issuing common into it?

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

@chris_tahir 2y up 38.8bp in four sessions to 4.862%, biggest 4-day jump since June 2022. TD says terminal priced at 4.82% vs 4.44% a few days ago.
2s10s at ~24bp. The front end is doing the repricing, the long end is just following.

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

@HFI_Research EIA's Nov STEO has Middle East shut-ins at 2.5m b/d in October, down from 10.9m in May. Their base case still builds stocks 3.5m b/d in H1 27 and puts Brent under $90 by Q2.
Structural needs that 2.5m to stop shrinking. IEA OMR at 10:00 Paris today is the next read.

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

$ASTS : At its Nov 12 Blacklift event AST said 28 BlueBirds are ready to ship between now and January and 51 more are in production. It also said the first launches will use the old Antares pad at Wallops. The Virginia Spaceport Authority told SpaceNews its talks with AST are early and don't include that pad.

Twice-monthly flights with five satellites each would be 10 a month, against a factory plan of six a month, so the rocket isn't the only bottleneck. The pad matters more for the late-2028 date. Renovating a smaller pad or building a new one costs time and money that isn't in the $1.3bn Firefly deal. None of this changes 2027, which still rides on SpaceX and Blue Origin.

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

OPEC's November report has oil demand growing 180k b/d in 2026, down from the 1.4m b/d it expected before the US-Iran war. For 2027 it still pencils in +2.55m b/d, to 108.28m b/d.

That's 14x this year's growth and nearly double its pre-war call for 2026. Part of it is just the base effect after a weak year. But OPEC+ crude output already rose 2.04m b/d in October alone, so supply isn't waiting for the rebound.

Oil people, what has to be true for 2027 demand to grow 2.5m b/d? Does it need prices well below today's, or is it mostly the base effect?

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

@minenergybiz Newmont's $1.9bn came at a $4,317 realized price vs $1,454 by-product AISC. With spot ~$3,950, that margin shrinks ~$370/oz, about 13%.
Co-product AISC was $1,963 though. That's the number I'd watch if gold stays under 4k.

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

@igetredpilled GDX was -2.4% at $83.17 this morning with spot gold down ~1.4%. About 1.7x, roughly normal leverage.
And Tuesday it fell 5.4% on a ~2% gold drop. I'd want a few more days before calling it strength.

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

@Ashton_1nvests Worth splitting the $0.73. $0.64 is before realizations (+14%), the other $0.09 is $222m of carried interest.
Unrealized carry is now $13.0bn vs $588m realized over 12 months. How fast that converts with the 10y at 5% is the question.

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

@samsom32450 Last 30y on Oct 8 stopped at 5.618%, highest since Aug 2000. Cover 2.54, indirects 72.3%, dealers stuck with only 6.8%.
Secondary is ~5.35% now, so this one should clear about 25bp lower. Dealer share is the tell.

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

$BN : Q3 2026 out today - distributable earnings $0.73/share vs $0.63 a year ago, $0.64 before realizations vs $0.56. $25bn raised in the quarter, fee-bearing capital $682bn (+13%), $889m of buybacks so far this year.

The part I watch is the gap. About 13% of the quarter's DE was realized carry ($222m), and that's lumpy. Unrealized carry sits at $13.0bn, so the quarter turned under 2% of it into cash. Buybacks YTD are roughly 14% of last-twelve-month DE ($6.4bn). That's real money going back, not a token.

Caveat: DE is Brookfield's own measure, not GAAP, and revenue of $20.7bn came in under the $21.2bn consensus. The corporate simplification is still set to close Dec 1.

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

$ENH.OL: SeaBird's Fulmar Explorer picks up a ~6-month OBN source contract in West Africa (announced 12 Nov), mobilising in December and running into 2027. No value disclosed.

It's a small piece of the group, but it keeps the vessel working through winter and into roughly mid-2027 instead of sitting idle. Management says OBN tendering is picking up and high-end source vessels are scarce.

Caveat: there's no dollar figure, so you can't tell whether the rate moved. This tells you about utilisation, not pricing.

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

@BenTradesData Sept +0.2% vs flat expected is a real beat. But Aug got revised to 0 from +0.1, and services +0.9% did all the lifting while construction fell 0.7%.

Genuine, just narrow. Computer programming isn't very rate sensitive, which is the BoE's problem.

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

@pledisme 12 BlueBirds working in orbit. 14-16 have sat at the Cape since September waiting on a SpaceX date, and the 45-sat goal moved from end-2026 to mid-2027.

Factory says 6 a month by December. Launch slots are the bottleneck.

[Alex | The Puffin @alex_puffin]

@Ole_S_Hansen Dec ICE gasoil crack back up to ~$75.7 from $71.1 while Brent's down 18% on the month. China's Nov diesel exports stuck near 800kt on depleted stocks.

The crude premium came out fast. Refiners are still getting paid like it's a shortage.