alkalineiso

🗿

[alkalineiso @alkalineiso]

@investingluc Absolutely not surprising, looking at ourselves we probably can notice a shift of our attention to another industry that can bring more money, fun, value and self fulfilment

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

JAPAN JUST BROKE THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND YOU HAVE 30 DAYS

November 18th, 2025. Japan’s 20-year bond yield hit 2.75%. Highest in recorded history. This single number just ended the 30-year era that made your retirement possible.

The math is simple and fatal.

Japan has 263% debt to GDP. $10.2 trillion total. They survived because rates were zero. At 2.75%, debt service explodes from $162 billion to $280 billion over ten years. That’s 38% of total government revenue consumed by interest alone.

No nation in history has sustained this without default or hyperinflation.

But here’s what kills your portfolio first.

Japan holds $3.2 trillion in foreign assets. $1.13 trillion in US Treasuries alone. They bought everything foreign because Japanese bonds paid nothing. Now Japanese bonds pay 2.75%.

After hedging costs, holding US Treasuries loses money for Japanese investors. Repatriation is not optional. It’s mathematical necessity. $500 billion exits global markets in 18 months.

The yen carry trade holds $1.2 trillion in borrowed yen funding global assets. Stocks. Crypto. Emerging markets. Everything. As Japanese rates rise and the yen strengthens, every position goes underwater. Forced liquidation has already begun.

Three certainties nobody can deny.

The rate gap between US and Japanese bonds collapsed from 3.5% to 2.4% in six months. When it hits 2%, Japanese money floods home. US borrowing costs spike 30 to 50 basis points regardless of Fed policy.

December 18th the Bank of Japan meets. 50% probability they hike again. If they do, the yen surges. Every carry trade loses another 6% instantly. Margin calls cascade globally.

Japan cannot print money to escape. Inflation already exceeds target. More printing collapses the yen and imports inflation. They’re trapped between currency crisis and debt crisis.

The anchor holding global rates down for 30 years just broke. Every portfolio built since 1995 assumed Japanese yields stayed near zero forever. That assumption died today.

Position for chaos or become collateral damage. There is no middle ground.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Full Deep Dive Article - https://t.co/J14xVslTlR

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[alkalineiso @alkalineiso]

@follis_ All of them

[alkalineiso @alkalineiso]

@follis_ Altseason but it's only one alt and no one's bought it for the past 5 years

[hummusXBT @hummusXBT]

$2M>$10M challenge update

Balance: $6.61M (Profit = $4.61M)

As you all would have noticed, I have underperformed for many months while people were posting 7-8fig pnls left and right, this was not easy. Anyway, I’m not going to come in and larp like I knew this would happen or give some generic advice about ‘managing risk’. Truth is that there is obviously a large amount of luck at play here and I was able to catch a lot of coins at the bottom for a very low risk trade. These have been the toughest and least forgiving trading conditions I’ve seen for a while and even people with very conservative leverage got wiped. Nobody accounts for their collateral getting depegged at the same time as their longs going down 80%.

If you took a big hit on the nuke, as somebody who has been in that position before, know that the lessons you take from this experience can be far more valuable than your losses. And though it might not feel like this at the moment, I guarantee you that the market will give opportunities to good traders to make it all back and more. That is the beauty of this casino.

Only lesson I will give:
If you are managing a decent size portfolio (6fig+) you should keep at minimum 50% off exchanges and a good chunk in stables, so that in the event of some black swan, you still have enough to rebuild. Keep this as a rule that you never deviate from and keep rebalancing as your perp account grows.

Market thoughts moving forward:
I’m currently holding a basket of alts that I expect will outperform. My plan is to bid dips aggressively on btc, possibly using leverage. Keeping an eye on stocks though. If stuff gets shaky in that department it won’t be good for crypto.

Was this an FTX-style bottom? Are we out of the woods? I don’t know, there is still quite some macro uncertainty and majors still aren’t ‘cheap’. I’m taking it 1 day at a time. Stay nimble and be ready to switch bias if things start shifting.

Exciting day seeing the hostages return back to their home today and the war ending. Wishing for a better future.

[alkalineiso @alkalineiso]

@maruushae

[alkalineiso @alkalineiso]

@GigaBasedDad Only you know

[Molly @bigmagicdao]

1st time BTC hits $100k,ETH is at $4k.
2nd time BTC hits 100k,ETH is at $3.9k
3rd time BTC hits $100k,ETH is at $3.7k.
4th time BTC hits $100k,ETH is at $3.4k.
5th time BTC hits $100k ,ETH is at $3k
6th time BTC hits $100k, ETH is at $2.8k
7th time BTC hits $100k, ETH is at $2.7k
8th time BTC hits $100k,ETH is at $2k

[alkalineiso @alkalineiso]

@mattomattik Their job doesn't require electricity

[TradeStream @tradestream_xyz]

The Art of Positioning

Why you are trading blind

🧵A thread

[alkalineiso @alkalineiso]

@mattomattik I'm not triggered

[alkalineiso @alkalineiso]

@mattomattik Another day another 10 years experience on the resume

[alkalineiso @alkalineiso]

@mattomattik Holding cash and outperforming 90% of the market

[Real Political Data @RealPData]

Why is this random post from March actually aging well

[alkalineiso @alkalineiso]

@0xraspberrycat llm

[alkalineiso @alkalineiso]

@hewarsaber Hero 🏆

[alkalineiso @alkalineiso]

@mattomattik This tweet is my answer to "what indicators are you using" ?

[alkalineiso @alkalineiso]

@SomstradamusHQ Le prophète !

[TradeStream @tradestream_xyz]

Finding Real Alpha & Edge.

Based on Agustin Lebron Book

A thread 🧵

[alkalineiso @alkalineiso]

@mattomattik Close your eyes they are here