All Roads Lead to CN

Analysis of China macroeconomic, manufacturing, and market development news

[All Roads Lead to CN @allroads]

@HanShanEH @richbrubaker @HeYiyong How is he supposed to read that when you blocked him?

[All Roads Lead to CN @allroads]

@GodfreeTrh @richbrubaker @HanShanEH Which is why, in other comments on same thread, I said China has made real progress.

They have.

But a post like this does not do them justice, or speak to the challenges that continue to exist.

[All Roads Lead to CN @allroads]

@GodfreeTrh @richbrubaker @HanShanEH So, OP blocked my account above, so switching to respond.

Yes, those have come down, but it's important to peel those apart and analyze them (vs. some blanket response).

In part as China's recent reductions are driven more by drop in construction than transport/ efficiency.

[All Roads Lead to CN @allroads]

@mark_e_evans YOOOOO Nice to see we still get a shout out... Even when All Roads Lead Away from China at the moment!

[All Roads Lead to CN @allroads]

@RealSexyCyborg @richbrubaker Point of statement was reflecting how Shanghai has already gone through what you are now seeing in SZ, and similarly once China shifts policy, it too will look no different than others.

Didn't realize that was so offensive, or worthy of being block.

It wasn't criticism.

[Richard Brubaker @richbrubaker]

For the majority of my 20+ years in China, the debate around climate change (and its costs) have largely been secondary to practical challenges (smog/ water quality)

This heat wave is changing that.

The costs are growing clearer by the day, and that is activating stakeholders

[Richard Brubaker @richbrubaker]

Four ways I see China (potentially) exporting recession:
1) material disruption & Stockpiling
2) factory/ supply chain disruption & inability to deliver to market
3) Consumers stop spending
4) markets draw down further

Risk grows as lockdowns continue. https://t.co/ANWmtipRun

[Richard Brubaker @richbrubaker]

I'm speaking w/ 30+ families planning their China exit.

For foreign families, primary concerns are cost of flights, getting to airport & school applications

For mixed/ Chinese families, it is the stress of getting Chinese parent/ kids out at all.

https://t.co/RXulWhmbLS

[Richard Brubaker @richbrubaker]

While may be an amazing day in #Shanghai, clouds are forming:

1) Restrictions elevated again.
2) Most conversations I have w/ friends & neighbors involve exit plans
3) Businesses failing. No money. Layoffs looming. Stressed entrepreneurs
4) Out of butter

#fuckcovid #lockdown

[Richard Brubaker @richbrubaker]

No cash coming in: (1) China has VERY specific invoicing printer that's connected to tax bureau. Must be kept in office. So, either accountant sleeps in office, see pic, or no invoices; (2) payment approvals often req account to be in office.

ergo. No cash coming in for 60 days

[Richard Brubaker @richbrubaker]

@shaunrein The system performed exactly to design spec & build.

The fact that it failed is a separate issue, and while it's sad and we are living through that failure, don't be confused about who designed the system, what happened, and what options exist for the recovery.

[Richard Brubaker @richbrubaker]

As Shanghai enters 4th week of lockdown, economic disruptions of COVID are only just being reported.

Lockdowns are constraining port/ factory operations as workers are unable to leave homes, and trucks are unable to move materials and parts.

#inflation

https://t.co/r2EyYUmzjo

[Richard Brubaker @richbrubaker]

One of the more interesting, and potentially dangerous, aspects of #Shanghai Lockdown has been the government's loss of the narrative, the widespread rumors, and the outright calls for change.

Beside the content itself, what is interesting is that censors are "slow" to remove

[Richard Brubaker @richbrubaker]

Story of #COVID in China is no longer just #Shanghai lockdown, but the impact to global supply chains, inflation, and global economy.

As I laid out in a previous thread, as virus spreads across China, risks of significant disruption grow.

#inflation

https://t.co/9JXsyUvXhf

[Richard Brubaker @richbrubaker]

Reports of areas of Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Wenzhou, and Ningbo going into partial/ full lockdown or widespread testing does not bode well for China.

A full blown run through Omi at this point is a potential disaster for China.

A short thread on my thoughts

[All Roads Lead to CN @allroads]

@ReinShaun @shaunrein Shaun regularly deletes his own tweets now.

[CEIBS @CEIBS]

Prof @richbrubaker tweets about #sustainability, #leadership + #innovation in Asia

[All Roads Lead to CN @allroads]

Interesting perspective on China's role at #cop21 and what to expext post-signature. #China #climatechange #energy https://t.co/S7QWEUSTru

[Mathilde @mthld]

"China didn't need COP21 to act" https://t.co/MvNDw5hJ8q via @beyondBAU

[Shanghaiist @shanghaiist]

Thousands protest against planned PX plant in Shanghai http://t.co/YUiuE60jnJ