The gap between Semiconductor YoY price performance and YoY EPS growth has reached a new extreme!
Investors are clearly pricing in a peak in earnings growth. But what if they're wrong?
What if AI infrastructure spending fundamentally reduces the industry's historical cyclicality?
These types of investors are more price sensitive and use more leverage (not holding bonds to maturity).
That makes markets more volatile, increasing pressure for higher yields.
When term premiums go up, banks lend MORE. We formalize this in a dynamic bank portfolio model & test it using the 2013 Taper Tantrum. Finding: QE's term premium compression may dampen bank lending, working against monetary policy stimulus goals. https://t.co/LHv4obrSmR
Korea – broader cycle, but mixed
There are signs of a broadening of the cycle, with construction past the worst, capex rising, and the labour market bottoming. However, while services activity has been strong recently, retail sales are still sluggish, and industrial production is going sideways.
https://t.co/5OUGgLUH7E
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