आलोक कुमार 🇮🇳

Nothing is Absolute, everything is Relative...
Nothing is right or wrong, its just a matter of whether its justifiable or not...

[Abhijit Chokshi | Investors का दोस्त @stockifiabhijit]

Magic Formula for Finding Potential Multi-Baggers

Market cap less than 5000 Crores

EBITDA between 15 to 25%

ROCE/ROE 15%+

Existing capacity greater than 80%

Upcoming capex is at least 50% of the fixed assets

Debt to Equity Ratio less than 2

The majority of new capex from internal accruals

[Shankar Sharma @1shankarsharma]

On Thermal Power,
India Installed Thermal Power Capacity (MW)
A. Thermal Capacity in FY 2003–04 (as of March 31, 2004):
77,968 MW

B. Thermal Capacity Added between 2004 and 2014 (UPA Period):

90,287 MW
(Total Thermal Capacity reached 168,255 MW as of March 31, 2014)

C. Thermal Capacity Added from 2014 to 2026 (NDA Period):
74,800 MW

(Total Thermal Capacity stands at ~243,000 MW in 2026).

So, yes, less thermal power capacity was added under NDA

BUT

The focus shifted to solar and renewables.

However, this was possible ONLY

Because of a massive crash in solar equipment and components in the past decade.

Solar wasn't really viable before.

Separately, on the Roads kms added, do bear in mind that the methodology for counting kms was changed. It became lane- kms, thereby sharply increasing the numbers on roads constructed. So, a 100 km, 4 lane highway would be 100 kms before but became 400 km now.

For many things, the tech or viability simply didn't exist a decade ago, so making a comparison chart of before and now, is good marketing because it will show as zero before.

It will be the same 50 years from now as it was since 1947.

All govts have done decent work but bad math & slanted graphics can make things look better or worse depending on political leanings.

Just facts, non-political.

[आलोक कुमार 🇮🇳 @alok040677]

@sencogoldindia Big fraud company.. a cheater.. order placed on 8th March..promise to deliver by 28th March. 40days and counting .. still they are asking for more time...

[आलोक कुमार 🇮🇳 @alok040677]

@sencogoldindia Big fraud company.. a cheater.. order placed on 8th March..promise to deliver by 28th March. 40days and counting .. still they are asking for more time...

[आलोक कुमार 🇮🇳 @alok040677]

@sencogoldindia Big fraud company.. a cheater.. order placed on 8th March..promise to deliver by 28th March. 40days and counting .. still they are asking for more time...

[आलोक कुमार 🇮🇳 @alok040677]

@sencogoldindia Big fraud company.. a cheater.. order placed on 8th March..promise to deliver by 28th March. 40days and counting .. still they are asking for more time...

[आलोक कुमार 🇮🇳 @alok040677]

@sencogoldindia Big fraud company.. a cheater.. order placed on 8th March..promise to deliver by 28th March. 40days and counting .. still they are asking for more time...

[आलोक कुमार 🇮🇳 @alok040677]

@sencogoldindia Big fraud company.. a cheater.. order placed on 8th March..promise to deliver by 28th March. 40days and counting .. still they are asking for more time...

[आलोक कुमार 🇮🇳 @alok040677]

@SahilKapoor which index you are referring... do you mean Nifty 10 yr Benchmark G-Sec index

[Devina Mehra @devinamehra]

With the market correction, suddenly a whole lot of market commentators and fund managers appear to have discovered chinks in the Indian economy: low consumption growth, tepid manufacturing performance, high food inflation etc

Never mind that the data on any of these has not deteriorated particularly - as per the official GDP numbers private consumption growth in the last financial year (FY23-24) was the lowest it had been in 21 years. Manufacturing as a percentage of GDP has been declining for the past decade. Export growth has also been pretty tepid. Non-agricultural employment has shrunk. I have been pointing out all these facts for many months and quarters now.

Bhai log, data to badla hi nahin hai

Yet, a few weeks ago the same talking heads on TV and print were talking up the India growth story and how 'this time' the market bull run was totally justified.

Now the tune has changed - only because the market has!

It makes you think whether they actually look at data at all or just look for easy 'plausible' causes for recent market moves.

#inDataweTrust

[आलोक कुमार 🇮🇳 @alok040677]

@devinamehra Congratulations, Looking forward to it

[First Global @firstglobalsec]

Wondering what hit you this week?

And what to do now post elections?

Join @DevinaMehra and @ActusDei this Friday, 7th June at 8pm IST on X Spaces to find the answers

Set the reminder now!

Click here: https://t.co/T8ZWz8zaBB

It's been a bad week for your BP!

And you're facing the billion dollar question: Ab kya lagta hai market?

Let’s chat about navigating market changes and finding opportunities!

#Investment #PostElection #FirstGlobal

[First Global @firstglobalsec]

Check out @devinamehra's podcast where she talks about investing, but also shares some profound life lessons:

✅ Visualizing goals: Picture where you wanna go and make it happen.

✅ Sunk costs: Don't let past mistakes weigh you down. You can just cut your losses and move forward.

✅ Gratitude: Take a second to appreciate what you've got. It'll change your whole vibe.

Catch the convo with anchor @_anujsinghal on @CNBC_Awaaz. It's 🔥!

[Devina Mehra @devinamehra]

"The markets are at all-time highs and there is potential volatility. Therefore, what should be my investment strategy?"

This question or versions of it are what I get most often these days from the media as well as from the lay investors, so let me break it down for you very simply, including how we are positioning the portfolios in our PMS.

Let us look at it along two dimensions: time and market cap.

First let us look at the main stream indexes along the time spectrum.

When I think of the medium term, say a couple of years' perspective, I remain positive on the market.

As I have explained in the past as well, 2010 to 20 was a very poor period in Indian market history where a 100 rupees invested became only 230 in a decade, barely beating fixed deposit returns.

Contrast this with 1980 when 100 rupees invested at the beginning of the decade became 700 in ten years.

In other words, the 2010 to 20 period gave compounded Returns in the 8.5% range as against the 15 -16% we think Indian equity compound at.

This is the reason why I remain positive on the markets as even after the run up post Covid lows, we are not even close to the trend line, let alone above it.

However can there be volatility on a 1/2 months horizon?

Yes. That is what our systems are telling us.

Therefore the way we are playing it is to remain fully invested but buy insurance via hedges.

Of course, it goes without saying that insurance costs money and if the market does not actually go down it will appear like a waste, but we always err on the side of caution, as investing is a Loser's Game and you can win only if you don't lose!

And while some volatility is possible, a sustained down move is not what we are looking at and hence we have not moved into cash because the other thing to remember is that while there is a risk to being invested in the market, there is also not being invested and missing out on an up move.

If you miss out, on the average, even ONE day a year (the best day for that year) you miss out on 90% of the market move. That is what data shows us.

In short, when you are positive in the medium term but there can be some ups and downs in the short term, the best strategy is to remain invested, but to be hedged.

This was the time dimension.

The other way to look at your portfolio is to look at the market cap stratification.

Here while I remain positive on the large caps and some parts of the midcap universe, we have severely cut back our exposure to stocks below Rs. 5000 crore market cap.

This is a segment that has done extremely well for the last 18 months or so but also where the risk is building up.

We do not look at stocks below 1000 crore market cap for our PMS or Smallcase but we have cut back severely in the 1-5000 crore market cap as well.

Again it comes down to risk management. While this strategy may have cost us some performance points vis a vis our more aggressive competitors, our first focus always is to preserve the capital, the hard-earned money, of our investors.

Risk management comes first and in small caps risk management via stop loss levels does not work as well because when those stocks fall often there is no exit. The doors are closed!

And how much can they fall?

In 2008-9 the small cap index itself fell 78%. It reached those levels after 8 years - this was also only theoretical as components of index had completely changed by them.

There was another 65% fall in 2018-19.

Also remember if something falls 80% and then compounds 50% each year for 3 years, you would still be down one third from your original investment.

Outlier returns in any segment of the market do not last forever.Therefore time to be very careful on the frothy areas of the market.

Want some hand holding for your portfolio, no matter what your size?
Click here: https://t.co/qqP6fvmmPs

[First Global @firstglobalsec]

Market Hits Record High: What’s Next? 🚀

Get the scoop from @DevinaMehra, Founder & CMD at First Global! She’s got the inside track on the #RBI bonanza and what it means for the markets and for the banks 📈

What could rising debt and poor consumption growth mean for the market?

Is there anything to worry about?

How to handle possible volatility in the next 1-2 months? 🌪️

Don’t miss out on her insights! Watch now on @firstglobalsec with @niraj_shah

@NDTVProfitIndia

[First Global @firstglobalsec]

What's missing in your portfolio that's keeping you from the best returns? 🤔

Learn from investing guru @devinamehra on how she expertly manages her investments. See where she's adding and subtracting, and why it matters. Plus, snag some cool tips for managing your own money.

Catch her insightful chat with @livemint on their #GuruPortfolio series! 📈🌍

🔗 Watch here: https://t.co/ZhCRWp4irt

@jashkriplani @ActusDei @firstglobalsec

[Devina Mehra @devinamehra]

The more comprehensive version of my interview to Joydeep Ghosh of @FinancialXpress

How are we managing the uncertainties related to FII flows, electoral events and more?

Volatility spikes in the market and what we expect?

Sectoral outlook
Smallcaps: Froth or not?

The link 👇
https://t.co/x0cyiY5pyU

[First Global @firstglobalsec]

💰 Money, Meditation, and More! 🌟

Join me for an eye-opening chat with @DevinaMehra about her journey from IIM Gold Medalist to investment guru.

We go deep into investing and life lessons, covering equity research, goal achievement, and applying first principles outside of finance.

This interview with @_anujsinghal is full of wisdom and goes beyond market chatter. Tune in and get inspired! 🎬

@CNBC_Awaaz

[First Global @firstglobalsec]

🌟Wondering about the market's next move post-election?

Join the exclusive interview with @DevinaMehra, founder of First Global, as she shares expert views on market volatility, election impacts, and top investment strategies! 📈💬

Get insights on:
🔍 What's the outlook for Nifty 50 after the election?
📊 How will different sectors be affected by election results?
💡 What investment strategies should you consider for Election 2024?

Don't miss this must-watch interview of @CNBCTV18Live with @prashantnair, @_soniashenoy, @Nigel_DSouza! 🎥

[First Global @firstglobalsec]

We have been talking about silver of late and here's the price!

Silver prices soar!🚀 In rupee terms, they've hit record highs, and in US dollars, they're at the highest since Feb 2013 at $29.35/oz! For context, the all-time high was $48.45 back in April 2011.

#Commodities #Precious #Metals #Silver #Gold #Dollar #USD #INR #Investing #Markets #AssetAllocation