Investor

Mostly finance, lately anti-genocide

[HomeMadeGarbage @H0meMadeGarbage]

詳細またブログに書くけど
Codex先生にPWMマイクロサーボ使うこと事前に言ったら
行動ベクトルを目標角度じゃなく角度変化量にしたの

これによって学習結果がスムーズな動作になってる
自分じゃ思いつかないね

[Felix Rieseberg @felixrieseberg]

About three hours ago I decided that my espresso machine should have a display. With a $50 controller, I now have a little device that lets me control my machine.

If you have the opportunity, try talking to Claude about hardware. It's *much* cheaper and easier than you might think. Fable is amazing at it.

[Mosab Abu Toha @MosabAbuToha]

Dr. Hussam Abu Safiya’s message to the court today as relayed by his attorney:

“I am a pediatrician. I provide medical care to patients, the injured, and vulnerable people in the Gaza Strip. I have carried out my work in accordance with international law and humanitarian standards. My detention is unjust and arbitrary.”

[Citrini @citrini]

I give it a year until we see a new breed of AI native private equity firms that acquire companies just so they can move their workflows from Claude to open source Chinese models and flip them.

[Photon Capital @PhotonCap]

Same opinion.

If you sold off your optics sector based on a single tweet, you should reflect on your actions.

If you are going to struggle over one tweet, you would be better off investing in an index, increasing your market value, and using that money to invest more in the index.

[gfodor.id @gfodor]

Anthropic read the Three Body Problem and decided the best idea in the whole trilogy was the sophon lock

[Ryan Grim @ryangrim]

NBC News has been bringing on a consultant for both Susan Collins and the Israeli ministry of foreign to attack Graham Platner. You can’t make this stuff up.

[Ryan Grim @ryangrim]

“NBC’s Matt Gorman” is an outrageous way to describe this man to NBC viewers when he has most recently been a registered foreign agent for the state of Israel.

That NBC doesn’t disclose that, and that they allow him on air to attack Platner, is exactly why normal people support Platner and want him to take a wrecking ball to this corruption.

Gorman’s contract with the Israeli ministry of foreign affairs appears to have recently terminated, so perhaps this is a try out for a new one.

To let him on air and not disclose this is shameful.

[JaguarAnalytics @JaguarAnalytics]

I went from spending ZERO to over $30,000 per year run rate in Claude in just 6 month. This thought crossed my mind multiple times whether its worth it. Not because I don't see value in hidden angles sheet that we produce daily. It's because of usage limitations even with that much amount of spending. This note from Citadel touches upon this: "... ration scarce capacity towards the areas where the marginal productivity of AI justifies the marginal cost of using it." This note is yet another reason why semiconductors are getting wrecked daily.

[Derya Unutmaz, MD @DeryaTR_]

💯 Exactly my point! People should understand that this is not about me or you not having access to biology, medicine, or math. It’s about them getting to decide who their “trusted” partner is. This notion of biosecurity issues is a total excuse or maybe ignorance of the science.

[Derya Unutmaz, MD @DeryaTR_]

Over the last two days, I’ve become much more appreciative of and grateful for OpenAI. That’s all I’m going to say.

[Dean W. Ball @deanwball]

My last observation re: Anthropic’s secret sabotage safety policy, is that it undermines actually good safety policy. How?

1. First, it is very plausible to describe this as anti-competitive behavior (even if you are maximally sympathetic to Anthropic here you must admit this), and it is behavior being justified in the name of AI safety. If you believe, as I and many Anthropic staff do, that it may end up being critically important to relax antitrust enforcement so that the frontier labs can cooperate and collaborate on some areas of AI safety, Anthropic just undermined the case for that in a large way.

2. Overall, this massively and profoundly raises the status of the argument that AI safety has been hype to justify monopolistic behavior by labs. I continue to believe AI safety is a real and serious issue that is growing in importance rather than diminishing. If you agree with me, this incident is a setback, maybe a serious one.

3. As I have observed elsewhere, Anthropic’s official corporate policy is structurally identical to the fact pattern alleged against them by the Department of War. I still think DoW acted both falsely and wrongly in that fight, but it is no longer possible to defend Anthropic with a full throat after this incident.

4. This raises the case for heavier handed regulations. Anthropic is making an awfully good case here that their products ought to be treated as utilities, and thus that their alignment practices should be a matter of public policy rather than private property. I am starkly opposed to this sort of state power grab, but Anthropic is doing more to justify it than anyone else.

5. Thus, significant damage has been done to a community and entire approach to AI governance. It was done unilaterally by Anthropic, likely motivated largely by self-interest and justified within the internal psychology of the firm through the lens of safety.

I suspect this is fixable in the economic and legal senses for Anthropic, but I fear the trust that has just been broken, and the goodwill extinguished, will take very much time to repair.

[mattparlmer 🪐 🌷 @mattparlmer]

Cosign all of this

Speaking as a software engineer, there now a lot of reasons to think that Claude cannot be trusted on difficult performance-critical tasks, going forward I would be irresponsible not to have Codex taking point on anything that touches a GPU

Massive own goal

[Anni @anni_sen]

$MU👇🏽
Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of Micron, heard him speak at several conferences is a very humble man and a brilliant engineer. Did his PhD at Berkeley. Sanjay founded $SNDK in 1988 which was acquired by Western Digital in 2016 and he became Micron CEO in 2017.
Funny story he was denied a visa to come to the US, 3 times or so and finally was able to attend Berkeley.
I agree with this take that with today’s CEO turned influencers, humility is cherished.

[bubble boi @bubbleboi]

There is a good chance the capital needed to build out AI infrastructure is so large, and the returns so much higher, that it pulls buyers away from U.S. treasuries leading to higher yields & funding costs for the government.

Why would you lend to the government at 4.5% when Microsoft, Google, & Amazon are offering paper at a spread, print 100B+ a year in cash flow, and earn 30%+ returns on capital? This might single handily save underfunded pensions & social security lol.

Don’t just look at the ~$725B in hyperscaler capex, add the debt for fab expansion, memory capacity, power, and grid that’s about 3–5 trillion dollars through 2030. That’s on the same order of magnitude as what the Treasury will auction over the same period lol. All the stock offerings from Google to Supermicro I think are just the start, we are going to start seeing private capex compete with the government for capital lmaoooo.

[Podcast Alpha @PodcastAlphaX]

Every token you spend hits DRAM.

Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron CEO, on A Bit Personal: token economics mechanically scales memory demand. Longer context windows mean larger KV caches. Larger models mean more DRAM per inference call. More agents mean more concurrent memory loads.

All three levers are growing at once.

Greenfield fabs take 3-4 years to bring online. Each new memory node yields fewer gigabits per wafer. Memory supply will be tight through 2026 with no catch-up timeline in sight.

The token budget crisis in corporate America is a DRAM demand signal. ($MU)

Source: A Bit Personal with Jodi Shelton - https://t.co/OIPvOFmNLa

[Fabricated Knowledge (LETS GO KNICKS!!) @fabknowledge]

When Fable works it’s brilliant, but the unilateral guardrails makes me frustrated beyond belief.

I have a folder of health information for my fiancée with like 100 days of oura health data, a hundred lab tests, transcripts of doctor visits and like way more for a super detailed health file to help figure out a complex fatigue / chronic illness she’s been going through. Guess what, fable considers it unsafe. Why? F do I know, I was really excited to try to clean up the folder and make some better protocols but guess what, it’s unsafe to help her health.

There’s a private investment in the life science tools space, guess what it’s not safe. I’m trying to do some code scanning for vulnerabilities, not safe. I get the safety but it feels so incredibly out of touch for a group of a few 1000 all making total comp in the millions telling me what is and isn’t safe.

If Dario is worried about inequality I think he has to realize he IS the inequality, and the unilateral gatekeeping feels whack as hell. I don’t like it, and yeah I’ll try to keep using fable, but OAI can’t catch up fast enough.

[PhotonBull @PhotonBull]

One of the easiest buys in my life

Thank you @SemiAnalysis_ for the dip on $AAOI

[mattparlmer 🪐 🌷 @mattparlmer]

Anthropic people, you’ve got a couple days at most to mitigate the damage being done by your senior leadership and policy people, the stealth nerfing and data retention decisions are titanic fuckups that pose serious risks to both your technical pole position and your bags

[Jesse Peltan @JessePeltan]

China is pumping out cheap EVs by the millions and BMW is spending money on pretending that hydrogen is viable.