Apps are killing infra
Yet every day 10 new infra bullshit protocols raise 10M each, while app builders get no love
Narrative does not follow fundamentals
Weekend Ramblings: Apps vs. Infra
As a holder and investor, betting on apps offers unique asymmetry. Initially, apart from a few believers, most will fade an app because it’s centralized, permissioned, or perceived as too niche. This allows you to enter at dirt-cheap valuations relative to future potential. However, by iterating on an initial PMF and building a small but strong community, the app progressively decentralizes, develops new use cases, and slowly shifts into infrastructure. Its valuation re-rates to the upside, in line with other infra comparables.
Skeptics watch from the sidelines as the price slowly grinds up until they can’t handle it anymore and capitulate back in at higher prices.
Nobody wants to buy apps; everyone wants to buy them 10x higher once they become infra.
As a founder, starting as an app allows you to build a strong initial community, find real PMF, and gradually decentralize over time. Decentralization is a process, not a fixed state.
Wishing a good weekend to all my fellow app enjoyers!
prediction markets perfectly synthesize all public and private knowledge when they show 55/45 in favor of my preferred outcome
prediction markets are low liquidity manipulated books when they show 55/45 against my preferred outcome
prediction: tokens are an innovative bootstrapping mechanism
reality: tokens are used to pay for users, listings, tvl, and applications, all to fake some semblance of real demand so you can dump your allocation