Wes Gray 🇺🇸

Marine. Ph.D. Dad x3.
RIA/blog/education: label ETF:

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

New Post: Why the 351 Exchange Might Revolutionize Investing https://t.co/uAz7xgzX1X

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@SowingAlphaSeed Saw that. Better than claude? We have google workspace and it'd be nice if google got their sh#$ together on ai

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@petaluma_rob @MebFaber U don't want Pocahontas spending your money? 🤣🤣🤣

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@cullenroche @EricBalchunas @JSeyff Grinding it out! Quite an achievement in the etf combat arena!

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@DaveNadig @cliffcornell_ Ya, but that story sucks. IPO value would drop to only 50x revenue vs 100x.

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@cliffcornell_ Ya, who doesn't love living in a more hard-core version of death valley with no water and worse weather?

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@JohnTinsman Condolences 🙏

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@ptuomov Great post. Animal spirits certainly are high these days!

[Ptuomov @ptuomov]

BUBBLES AND DIVERSIFYING ASSETS

As a large bubble inflates and creates the unbearable FOMO vacuum that sucks almost everyone in, the bubble causes people to sour on otherwise sensible, reasonably high expected-return diversifying investments. One of the signs of the bubble is the expected long-term real returns actually increasing on assets that aren't participating in the bubble.

For example, during the 1999 TMT bubble, U.S. REITs, EM equities, EM debt, U.S. TIPS, Barclays developed gov't debt, and international small-cap equities were all shunned and had their expected returns grow to reasonable levels. You could lend money to Bill and George W. at 4% real because the market loved equities and there was no love left over for anything else! The price of these diversifying investments didn't go up or down much during the 1999 TMT bubble, even though fundamental values did steadily grow, which over time increased the long-term expected returns on these diversifying investments.

Investing in those kinds of bubble non-participants doesn't really protect your mark-to-market relative P’n’L during the bubble. Only being long the bubble can protect your relative P’n’L from the bubble!

However, investing in those diversifying investments does position you well for the bubble burst and deflation, as those investments work well during the deflation stage. Such diversifying investments during the bubble may make sense if you aren't confident about being better at timing the bubble than the next guy.

Of course, those who believe they have the divine touch of market timing will plan to be long the bubble until they can see the eyeballs of the enemy and then rotate to these diversifying investments at the last moment. Godspeed to those of you, whom I know are numerous!

Relating this to my framework about the stages of bubbles:

Steps 5-8:
- Diversifying investments become less correlated with the bubble.
- Diversifying investments start producing disappointing returns.
- Diversifying investments begin to have muted price reactions to legitimately good fundamental news.

Step 9 and after:
- Diversifying investments continue to produce acceptable absolute returns and start producing very good alpha.
- Diversifying investments’ past fundamental news will be reinterpreted more positively as new fundamental news arrives.

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

I wrote a new book...

𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗮 𝟮𝟱𝟬-𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁

Coming July 4, 2026 🇺🇸

Pre-order: https://t.co/VGGmU7Rcwa

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@JohnTinsman welcome to the financial services industry. America's finest. ha

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

Late to convo but the regs and requirements for US etf operators to easily move into the European market are intense. But that is by design. Vested interest do not want robust US financial services competition in their markets or they would get destroyed. Not saying our products/services are perfect, btw

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

"Winning over time doesn’t mean winning all the time."

Easy to understand, hard for investors to accept when they're in it...

via @virtus

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@ReformedTrader @Rivershedge oh no. we don't want the bears coming out!!

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

Stocks are an inflation hedge? Are you sure?

Seems like it all boils down to if the company can boost ROIC.
https://t.co/rN0e02s8Re
ht @JohnHuber72

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@SowingAlphaSeed The @VCBrags bat signal

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

New Post: Trend-Following Filters – Part 10 https://t.co/4CkNlu0Hec

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@TaxAlphaInsider @DaveNadig @Ericgolden Shouldn't they just move out of the state? 🤣

[Jose Ordoñez Jr. @JOrdonezJr]

We are at Basis Northwest with @TaxAlphaInsider. Come say hi!

@RyanPKirlin

[Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect]

@Foulke_David @cliffcornell_ We will! Im pitching @TaxAlphaInsider on a 🇵🇷 version