zhi zhang

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

https://t.co/yeG4PgpjEq

[Jesse Myers @Croesus_BTC]

I’m sick of it. The Bitcoin gloom and disappointment. Don’t you see what is underway?

When you close your eyes, there’s one number you should see in your mind: $500T of fiat assets.

That’s how much global asset value is sitting in Bonds (fixed income) & Money (M2 fiat currency). Why does that matter?

Because that giant reservoir of ~½ the world’s asset value contains the potential energy necessary to power hyperbitcoinization.

This is what Saylor sees.

But do you see it yet?

Consider Hoover Dam. The reservoir behind it contains 12 TWh of usable hydroelectric energy – it just looks like one big lake, calm and placid. But if you stick a pipe through that damn and put a turbine generator in the middle of it and let the water run through it… you can generate enough energy to power the city of Las Vegas for 5 years.

That’s potential energy. Stored, untapped power. And by removing the barrier for the water to flow towards a lower energy state, you can harness the pent up power of the reservoir.

This same mental model works for capital.

A high Sharpe ratio is the financial analogue of a low-energy equilibrium state. Capital flows downhill, always seeking lower risk per unit of return.

(Yes, I know everyone thinks about it as “highest return per unit of risk”, but this is the equivalent and helps understand the physical metaphor)

Do you see it yet?

Think about all the capital parked in fixed income instruments or money market funds. All of this capital is parked there because it has historically provided an acceptable trade-off of modest nominal returns for minimal risk.

The entire premise of fixed income is “here’s a way to park cash in low-risk instruments that will generate a positive return slightly greater than inflation.” Adjacent to this asset category is “cash and cash equivalents” where the value proposition is somewhat smaller returns in exchange for even less risk.

And over the decades, a steady stream of capital has found its way into these asset buckets that promise low risk and modest nominal returns via future fiat cashflows.

These buckets have become a giant fiat reservoir, brimming with nearly $500T of capital.

Do you see it yet?

Along comes Strategy. @saylor realizes that much of this $500T of capital would be better off if it flowed into Bitcoin. But Saylor also recognizes that this reservoir of capital is inherently constrained. Boxed in by convention, investment mandates, risk management, volatility aversion, etc.

It won’t flow to Bitcoin on its own. It can’t – it’s walled off, dammed up.

Strategy engineers a solution. Creates a product to meet that capital where it’s at. The $500T fiat asset reservoir wants low risk, low volatility, fiat cash flows. Strategy designs preferred equity instruments that solve for these constraints, while Strategy uses the fiat capital proceeds to buy Bitcoin (which it believes will appreciate at 29% CAGR for the next 20 years).

In exchange for capital today, STRC offers 11.5% annual returns with volatility asymptotically approaching 0. The Sharpe ratio is off the charts. It breaks everything in tradfi portfolio allocation. At first glance, it seems impossible. But it works because it’s not powered by risk-taking layered on top of fiat inflation; it’s powered by the ongoing monetization of a superior monetary asset whose endogenous properties ensure its appreciation when valued in fiat currency units over time.

Saylor terms this kind of Bitcoin-powered fixed income offering “Digital Credit.”

When a commodity flows from a high-energy state to a low-energy state, it releases energy. In the case of Hoover Dam, that energy can be used to power a hydroelectric turbine. In the case of Bitcoin treasury companies with Digital Credit offerings, that energy can be used to power shareholder returns for common equity holders. This can happen in every major capital market in the world.

Do you see it yet?

Strategy has stuck a pipe through the dam. A conduit through which capital can flow out of the Fiat Asset Reservoir and towards a low-energy equilibrium state. Digital Credit offerings (e.g., STRC, SATA, and others) create that value proposition.

And what’s the Total Addressable Market (TAM)? All $500T of fiat assets in the reservoir.

The recent SpaceX IPO Prospectus recently made a splash by claiming the company had a combined $28.5T TAM, proclaiming that this was the “largest TAM in human history.”

But my essay from 2023 titled “Bitcoin’s Full Potential Valuation” already articulated how Bitcoin’s TAM is all value itself, above and beyond the usual lens of annual economic activity across industries. Saylor read it, adopted it for his presentations, and built on it with the Bitcoin24 valuation model.

The SpaceX Prospectus is wrong. Bitcoin has the largest TAM in human history.

And Digital Credit has the second largest TAM in human history – the $500T Fiat Asset Reservoir.

Do you see it yet?

Digital Credit offerings will redirect some % of the $500T Fiat Asset Reservoir into Bitcoin. This will happen because the value proposition of Digital Credit offerings is higher Sharpe than anything I am aware of in the entire $500T reservoir, inflation-adjusted.

Think of it as the Second Law of Capital Dynamics: capital flows toward assets offering superior risk-adjusted returns.

If Digital Credit ingests 1% over the coming decades, that’s $5T. It seems unreasonably pessimistic to think that only 1% of the $500T Fiat Asset Reservoir would be interested in vastly better returns with a similar (or better) risk profile.

Let’s say Digital Credit appeals to a (still-conservative) 10% of the $500T fiat asset reservoir, that’s $50T.

Bitcoin is currently a $1.5T asset.

Do you see it yet?

Digital Credit may direct a torrent of $50T of capital into Bitcoin over the coming decades. All of it bidding for a finite supply of Bitcoin.

The scale of that inflow would likely drive Bitcoin’s valuation to $10m/BTC, or ~$200T total.

Digital Credit is the plumbing of hyperbitcoinization.

This is how it happens – you’re watching the early stages of Bitcoin’s monetization megatrend.

The question is: do you see it? Or will it have to play out first?

[J64 @_J64_]

“You guys are called Bankless” - @PunterJeff

Please listen to this 2 minute clip. Reestablishing the benchmark for trust built on 24/7 transparency is an unlock.

Clip from @Bankless

[Jouhatsu | AI Influence Operator @Jouhatsu_ai]

Anthropic a publié une Formation complet de 2 HEURES sur la construction d'agents Claude.

Animé par l'ingénieur qui construit Claude Code.

Gardez-la précieusement en Signet🔖

de A à Z : Structurer un agent qui se gère sans supervision. Lui donner accès au terminal pour exécuter, lire, corriger. Gérer sa mémoire via le système de fichiers. Bloquer les hallucinations avec des Hooks. Faire tourner un agent sur un gros codebase sans tout casser.

À la fin : vous utilisez Claude comme un pro et vous monétisez vos compétences. Débutant ou avancé, tout est là en un seul endroit, ce cours couvre tout.

Ça vaut plus que tous les cours à 500$ que t’as failli acheter.

[Mr. Buzzoni @polydao]

Atlassian's revenue: $1.79 billion last quarter
Atlassian's move: fire the engineer who built their infrastructure

his move: post a 38-minute breakdown of every system he built, free for anyone to copy

what he revealed:

> Envoy proxy instead of enterprise load balancers
> sidecar architecture for auth, logging, rate limits
> DynamoDB + SQS for async provisioning
> Packer + SaltStack for automated VM deployments at scale

Atlassian charges per employee across 350,000 customers

this guy just handed you the enterprise playbook for free

save this

[Cole Walmsley @Cole_Walmsley]

“Inflation is back and higher rates are coming.”

The U.S. Dollar is screwed.

The Treasury must sell ~$2 trillion in new debt this year.

Not to cover new spending. *Just to keep the lights on* and roll over old debt coming due.

That old debt was issued at 1-2%.

It's refinancing at 4.5%+.

Interest expense on the national debt is approaching $1 trillion per year. It's now larger than the entire defense budget. Larger than Medicare.

It's the fastest-growing line item in the federal budget, by far.

Higher rates on rolled-over debt means bigger interest payments.

Bigger interest payments mean bigger deficits.

Bigger deficits mean more debt issuance.

More debt issuance means higher supply of Treasuries.

Higher supply of Treasuries means weaker demand.

Weaker demand means higher yields.

Higher yields means bigger interest payments...

People call it a debt spiral. They're wrong.

It's a death spiral.

The loop feeds itself. Every basis point higher on the 10Y makes next year's refinance worse, which makes everything worse.

The math compounds against the Treasury every single day yields stay here.

The Fed has three doors out. All three open into the same room.

Door 1:

Cut rates

Inflation re-accelerates *on top of* a 6.0% April PPI -- the hottest since 2022 -- and an April CPI that hit a near three-year high. Gasoline onto the fire.

The dollar weakens. Foreign holders of US debt -- a third of the entire market -- watch their real returns get eaten by inflation, then take a second hit on the FX conversion back home. They sell, or demand higher yields to keep buying.

The Fed cuts rates only to watch the market raise them. Their move backfires.

Door 2:

Hold rates.

The $2 trillion in debt rolling over this year keeps refinancing from 1-2% into 4.5%+. Interest expense compounds.

The deficit widens from interest alone, before a single new dollar of spending is approved.

The bond market demands more premium to fund a borrower that looks worse every quarter.

Yields drift higher even though the Fed didn't move.

Door 3:

Hike rates.

Mortgages crack 7%.

Auto delinquencies -- already at 32-year highs -- accelerate.

Regional banks holding underwater Treasuries from the cheap-money era get squeezed like 2023 again. The kicker: the emergency facility that bailed them out last time is closed.

Commercial real estate, sitting on hundreds of billions of debt refinancing in the next two years, gets repriced into a crater. Corporate borrowers refinancing from 2-3% into 7%+ start defaulting.

And the Treasury *still* has to roll $2 trillion in debt over. At an *even higher rate* than before.

The Fed crushes the economy *and* makes its own funding problem worse, in the same move.

All three doors go to the same room:

Impossible-math.

The math always comes due.

In fiat's case, the only historical route is currency debasement.

The Fed eventually monetizes — explicitly through QE, or quietly through yield curve control, or via some politely-named new acronym.

In other words, the purchasing power of the dollar gets destroyed to make the nominal debt serviceable.

That's why they need inflation in the first place. The Fed needs inflation to make the debt math work. You pay the difference. Every dollar you hold loses value to make the equation work.

It's the documented endgame of every fiat regime that has ever existed.

Romans clipped the denarius. The Bank of England suspended gold convertibility. Weimar, Argentina, Zimbabwe, Lebanon, Turkey, Venezuela.

Currency debasement, currency debasement, currency debasement.

Sovereign nations always sacrifice the currency over the bond market. Always. It is the most consistent pattern in 5,000 years of monetary history.

This is the future:

They will print. They will inflate. The dollar will be debased.

Your money will buy less, as it always has. The system will unwind through currency debasement.

Quietly.

Then loudly.

Then suddenly.

The bad news: if you're in the system, you will go down with it.

The good news: you can exit.

The exit strategy is simple.

You *don't* exit through some clever trade that gets you more of the worthless money.

You exit by shifting to a *different* monetary system. One that can't be printed, can't be debased, can't be voted on, and doesn't require trusting the people who built this trap to get you out of it.

You already know what it is.

Fix the money, fix the world.

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️The deeper signal is youth risk did not disappear.

It migrated inward.

Teen drinking fell because the old physical world of adolescence got dismantled. Alcohol belonged to a social ecosystem: unsupervised time, cars, parties, local jobs, malls, basements, boredom, flirting, older siblings, house gatherings, and the chaotic peer world where teenagers learned who they were by colliding with other people in real space.

That ecosystem was replaced by phones, surveillance, parental tracking, algorithmic entertainment, social anxiety, online status games, and a much thinner physical commons.

So the surface looks healthier. Fewer kids drinking. Fewer kids using weed. Fewer kids doing reckless things in public.

The hidden layer looks worse. The young are less reckless because they are less socially embodied. Less initiation. Less unsupervised friction. Less courage-building. Less embarrassment and recovery. Less real dating. Less independence. Less contact with the physical world before adulthood demands it.

The old teenage world produced damage, stupidity, alcohol abuse, pregnancy risk, fights, accidents, and bad decisions. No need to romanticize it. But it also produced social reps. It forced young people through discomfort. It made them practice attraction, rejection, conflict, reputation, risk, repair, and status in the open.

The new world suppresses visible risk while increasing invisible fragility.

That is the trade.

A teenager can avoid drinking, avoid parties, avoid sex, avoid driving, avoid real confrontation, avoid rejection, avoid shame, avoid danger, and still arrive at 23 emotionally underbuilt. Cleaner behavior does not automatically mean stronger formation.

This is why the marriage chart and the teen drinking chart are the same story at different stages. People are not suddenly failing to pair in adulthood. The whole pathway into embodied adulthood has been slowing for years before marriage even becomes the question.

The real truth: society solved part of the teen vice problem by shrinking the arena where teenagers become adults.

It took away the dangerous commons and replaced it with controlled isolation.

The result is safer kids with weaker initiation into real life.

[Movez @0xMovez]

Jane Street pays $750k/ year for quants who can answer how to use Stochastic Process and Markov Chains in quant trading.

This 1-hour MIT lecture on probability gives you the same insights quants get paid $60K/month for.

Bookmark & watch today. Then read the article below.

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

Most people have no idea what this even means.

But it is yet another fundamental macro driver of risk on sentiment for Bitcoin.

The 3month real yields have just turned negative for the first time in 3 years…

And this is a very large tail wind for Bitcoin.

When real yields go negative, it becomes very unwise to hold cash or bonds, or anything “safe” as you are losing money.

The yield you earn is being outpaced by inflation, thus making it a negative return.

This pushes capital into higher yielding and/or assets with higher levels of appreciation.

And this negative real yield environment is going to continue to drop further negative as Warsh cuts into a bubble.

The last bull run was driven by a negative real yield and stimulus environment…

And we are just now entering the same place.

Add this to the list of the other 20+ HTF macro bullish metrics and you get a perfect storm.

With the craziest thing being that 95% of investors have no idea how this even works.

[Felipe Demartini @namcios]

A mulher que construiu o ChatGPT saiu da OpenAI, ficou em silêncio por um ano, e o que ela acabou de lançar pode mudar pra sempre como você usa IA no dia a dia.

Mira Murati não fundou mais um chatbot. Ela foi atrás do problema que nenhum lab quis resolver: toda IA que existe hoje funciona por turnos. Você digita, espera. O modelo responde, espera. É tentar resolver uma crise por e-mail quando você poderia estar na mesma sala que a pessoa.

O que a Thinking Machines lançou hoje acaba com isso.

O modelo ouve, vê, fala, pensa e age ao mesmo tempo. Não é um pipeline costurado de componentes. É o modelo em si que foi treinado do zero pra funcionar assim.

→ Latência de 0,40s por turno. O padrão da indústria é 1 a 2 segundos.
→ Micro-turnos de 200ms intercalando input e output sem parar
→ Faz busca, usa ferramentas e gera interface enquanto conversa com você
→ Percebe quando você hesita e intervém antes de você pedir
→ Tradução simultânea em tempo real com as duas partes falando

A equipe: Mira Murati como CEO (ex-CTO da OpenAI), Soumith Chintala como CTO (criador do PyTorch), e contratações recentes da Meta em percepção multimodal.

O ponto técnico que vale gravar: eles citam o "bitter lesson" do Rich Sutton. Interatividade construída por componente externo sempre vai perder pra interatividade nativa ao modelo. Escalar o modelo o torna mais inteligente e mais colaborativo ao mesmo tempo.

822 mil visualizações em 4 horas. a16z comentando. Brasil dormindo.

Toda IA que você usa hoje vai parecer e-mail dentro de dois anos. E quem largou na frente dessa corrida não foi OpenAI, Google nem Anthropic.

Foi a empresa da mulher que eles deixaram sair.

[James Lavish @jameslavish]

If you’ve been wondering about investing in STRC and/or SATA as an individual, I wrote all about the new class of Digital Credit in this morning’s Informationist.

Super easy to understand and today’s issue is free to everyone. Enjoy!
https://t.co/rGYAuON896

[zhi zhang @AlphaNOM]

@TFTC21 @PunterJeff did an amazing job. I was surprised by his poise and information delivery. Well done.

[Jeff Walton @PunterJeff]

Sat down with @coffeebreak_YT today on Bitcoin and Digital Credit.

His edit will drop soon. Posting the full raw hour for anyone who wants the unfiltered version.

Enjoy

[Сarm1ne @carm1nee]

Paul Tudor Jones predicted the 1987 crash, made $100 million, then spent years trying to destroy this footage

you will watch him lose $6 million in one afternoon, sit in his chair and say "total devastation" then make it all back with 100% interest

This documentary will change how you think about risk forever

Bookmark & watch it. Then read the post below - $90 billion from being right just 54% of the time↓

[0xMarioNawfal @RoundtableSpace]

ANTHROPIC JUST RELEASED THE OFFICIAL PLAYBOOK FOR BUILDING A COMPANY WITH CLAUDE CODE.

CEO: 1 human. Employees: AI agents. Operations: fully automatic.

The zero-headcount company is no longer a joke.

[Will🦶🏼 @Barefoot_Will_]

Parents

Get your kids into barefoot/minimalist shoes as early as possible.

Go into debt if you have to.
(There are actually tons of affordable options.)

Kids’ feet are extremely moldable until age 12-18.

One simple switch activates 200,000+ sensory receptors for critical brain feedback.

One simple switch builds strong natural arches.

One simple switch develops proper toe dexterity.

Skip this and you’re dramatically increasing their risk of foot, knee, hip, and back issues later in life.

Give your kids the foundation they actually need to move well for the rest of their lives.

[Charly Wargnier @DataChaz]

THIS GUY IS LITERALLY GIVING AWAY THE DESIGN PLAYBOOK FOR CLAUDE DESIGN 🤯

A Free 2-hour masterclass showing how to build an ENTIRE startup:

→ brand guidelines
→ decks
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... using ONLY Claude Design.

Guide is below + full tutorial in 🧵 ↓

[Shabnam Parveen @shabnam_774]

Instead of watching an hour of Netflix, watch this 2 hour hour Stanford lecture will teach you more about how LLMs like ChatGPT and Claude are built than most people working at top AI companies learn in their entire careers.

[Tabassum Parveen @Tabbu_ai]

Claude FULL COURSE 1 HOUR (Build & Automate Anything)