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Heard on the Street. (Not investment advice, and all views are my own.)

[Short Squeez @shortsqueeznews]

BREAKING: Fee split on the largest IPO ever:

Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley: 20% BofA, Citi, JPM: 15%

[Short Squeez @shortsqueeznews]

BREAKING: JPMorgan and Jefferies are lining up trips to Caracas as investor demand for Venezuela exposure heats up.

Clients want a firsthand look at the country’s attempt to revive its oil-rich economy and restructure its debt after years of isolation.

The visits would be among the first known trips by major U.S. banks, which still have to navigate sanctions, internal approvals, and a very delicate compliance backdrop.

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

Goldman Sachs just released a detailed 26 page report on their long term view on private credit

A few charts that caught my eye

1/ Majority of private credit AUM is held by institutional investors

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

If you are looking for a primer on leveraged finance, restructuring or credit investing concepts, this thread is for you

Few fantastic slides from an old leveraged finance handbook by Bear Stearns

🧵

1/ Introduction to leveraged finance

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

SUMMARY OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ADDRESS TO THE NATION:

1. The Iran War will last another "two to three weeks"

2. The US will strike Iranian power plants if no deal is reached

3. Core strategic objectives are "close to completion" in Iran

4. The US "will bring Iran back to the stone age"

5. The US will not import oil from the Strait of Hormuz in the future

6. "Iran's navy is gone and their air force is in ruins"

US oil prices are surging above $103/barrel after the speech.

[Alphabro @alphawinner6]

@wobushimiao 是仿品？

[Claude @claudeai]

You can now enable Claude to use your computer to complete tasks.

It opens your apps, navigates your browser, fills in spreadsheets—anything you'd do sitting at your desk.

Research preview in Claude Cowork and Claude Code, macOS only.

[Stefan Georgi @StefanGeorgi]

I know this is very imperialist of me, but spent the morning looking at Venezuelan real estate and there are definitely some bangers...

[Alphabro @alphawinner6]

@Lola_lmao7 The taste and quality has gone down over the years, not the same flavor as their first flushing store, not authentic other, not sure if you know, but nowadays a lot of Chinese restaurants use spicy to hide the true flavor of the food especially for something that’s not fresh.

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

Still think about this

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

Reality of being a private equity associate

> Walk into the office at 9 AM. You are tired from consecutive set of 2 AM nights you had to pull for the entire week before on a deal that ultimately ended up nowhere

> Principal comes by your desk and hands you some analysis to run for an existing PortCo. You bought this thing at peak multiples back in 2021 and now the numbers dont justify anywhere close to the valuation you paid. LPs are asking for return of capital and MD has asked you to get "creative" on how this can be accomplished

> You run the analysis, putting together 7 different transaction scenarios, including a dividend recap, continuation vehicle, sale, IPO etc. You look at your list of public comps to see what valuation you think you can get on the business. Send it off to MD in the hopes that he will realize that you cant sell this business anytime soon

> Meanwhile, get staffed on a new deal. Staffer says this is just an initial screen, should be pretty light from an analysis perspective. Get added to the banker VDR and VP on the deal team immediately hands you a list of analysis to run on the banker materials, including KPIs and a simple model with various scenarios to estimate levered free cash flow and IRR / MOIC

> You look at the clock. Its now 5 PM. Only 9 more hours to go, you tell yourself. Reading the CIM, you realize this is a ShitCo masked as a "recurring revenue company with multiple abating headwinds" and "190 years of cumulative mgmt experience". You smile, thinking back to your banking days, and realizing how stupid these bankers are

> As you finish smiling, get a follow up email from your MD. He has sent you 7 pages worth of comments, including one titled "why is our base case not showing 20% IRR?" As the smile wanes off your face, you come to the conclusion that you are just in banking 2.0, but somehow even worse

> You go back into your model and start plugging assumptions that helps you show a 20% IRR. Should I show revenue growth for a business that has declining topline for the last 5 years? Sure, why not. Should I show margins improving for a business where raw material prices and labor trends have only been trending up? Sure, why not. It doesnt need to make any sense. Your MD will just need to find a way to spin it to your IC in the name of "operational value add" and "low hanging fruit for driving topline growth"

> Send the model outputs back to your deal team. Continue to read the CIM and go through VDR materials for your new deal. VP comes by and asks you to explain what the business even does. He has clearly not even opened the VDR. You have no idea either, but rattle off some buzzwords that you read in the CIM. It is a provider of "mission critical software" with high gross retention (customers hate them but cant move from it). Your VP loves it. He asks you to jam on some more analysis so you can discuss with your MD in the morning

> You spend the next 6 hours putting together a bunch of nice looking charts and pages. Most of these are coming directly from the CIM, but you wonder why you need to recreate these anyway. Your VP is against snipping CIM charts. Wants everything in your "firm format"

> Come 1 AM, you send it off to your VP. VP quickly reviews, gives you a bunch of comments and goes to sleep. You turn them overnight and take an Uber back to your shoebox appartment. You are somehow earning $300K, in the top 5% of earners at your age, but still feel poor. You can barely afford an apartment without roommates. "This career path is just not what it used to be", you tell yourself

> Wake up in the morning and sit down to discuss analysis with MD. Your MD goes through the first 3 pages out of the 20 pages of work you put together. He says "wow, this is prone to AI risk. Just dont think we will get there on valuation" and kills the deal. You go back to your desk, upset at yourself for thinking private equity was the "promise land" for bankers

[Restructuring__ @Restructuring__]

Great private market update including:

1) EV / EBITDA Transaction Multiples
2) Comparison of Transactions Over and Under $1.0 Billion of Enterprise Value
3) Size of Deal and EBITDA over Time
4) Maturity Wall
5) PIK Interest Usage – Trend Analysis
6) Lender Foreclosures🧵

[Restructuring__ @Restructuring__]

CLOs were long treated as passive yield machines, unconcerned with messy bankruptcies or capital structure battles. But the tide has shifted.

Cov-lite loans, liquidity crises, and aggressive sponsors are forcing CLOs to fight. And most were never built for this. Here’s what changed, and how they’re adapting.

1) CLOs were built to clip coupons, not battle sponsors
2) The CLO lifecycle
3) Acosta showed CLOs they real power
4) CLO indentures are being rewritten t
5) Equity conversion is still a structural problem
6) Private Credit Funds are competing with CLOs
7) CLOs are learning to fights, but the clock is running

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

What Harvard grads pursued a career in based on their parents income

[junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest]

Non pro-rata debt deals have been standard in US LME for years - majority screws minority, perfectly legal

Now it’s spreading to Europe.

Selecta (Swiss vending machines):
> Majority: 70 cents
> Minority: 35 cents

Minority response: Sue under US Sherman Act claiming it’s an illegal cartel

US tactics meet US lawsuits

[Alphabro @alphawinner6]

Titanic menu

[junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest]

Loan market structure getting riskier across every dimension:

- Higher leverage…yes
- Lower equity cushions…also yes
- Looser covenants…of course!
- Tighter spreads…you bet
-Elevated base rates (higher debt service)…check

Consensus forecast: Below-average defaults…(2.6% historical avg)

[Restructuring__ @Restructuring__]

Blackstone President Jon Gray just gave a talk on:
1) the Economy
2) AI as “The Main Thing”
3) Where to Invest Now

Find here every single slide he presented with many detailed figures of how Blackstone is doing

A must read for every investor 🧵

[junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest]

$30 billion in private credit CLOs already this year, surpassing last year’s pace

We’re packaging illiquid private loans into tradable securities at the fastest pace ever seen

The last time we packaged illiquid loans into securities THIS enthusiastically, we needed a global bailout.

But these are different! These are private credit loans, not mortgages!

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

RESTRUCTURING 101: DROP DOWN FINANCING TRANSACTIONS

Last week I wrote a thread on uptier transactions and how they are used to deal with near term debt maturities

Drop down financings fall under a similar category of liability management

Lets dive in to how drop downs work🧵