SerenityNow

Science, Tech, Food, sustainability. Passion&forward

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

@ihtesham2005 @DavidSacks American tech can’t be trusted.

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

@jenzhuscott @RnaudBertrand Yes. Regular people around the world should feel a bit of hope that we are not being left with only option of being a serf in the U.S. AI system.

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

@johoshua @jenzhuscott FLG is political cult. People who believe their lies are too dumb to worth an argument.

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

@DanielDumbrill Yes. Huawei and a whole list of sanctioned Chinese companies who refused to surrender. The hardened spine and sharpened mind, quiet determination and confidence, very potent combination.

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

@Bluebearmonkey @jeff3103747 @Mont_Jiang That’s very hard to get in. Kids admitted are top of the top from all of China. Understand the pressure your son is in. Glad he is thriving .

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

@Bluebearmonkey @jeff3103747 @Mont_Jiang What does your son study in Tsinghua?

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

@HaiYaNordic 大陆人在美国有很多公司，行业根本无法进入。比如许多公司，学校，政府机构的项目在美国政府的control list, 大陆人没有绿卡没法参与。 大陆华人大批回国效力才能有机会参与这些项目。无论出处，华人在美国成功对大家都好，有什么可争的。

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

@shaunrein @CarlaHSands U.S. ambassadorship is a trophy awarded to the top donors. Nothing to do with professional ability or ethics.

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

@IsabellaMWeber @GlennLuk I was at an frontier research discussion with German professors and industry experts in mid 2010s. They completely ignored EV that Tesla was working on, and focused on optimizing what they have, and pushing for light weighting. Germany gave up the game because of arrogance.

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

@elonmusk It’s a dual use technology that foreign governments would have legitimate security concerns with, especially the connection with U.S. military and intelligence.

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

@whyyoutouzhele @elonmusk 不知耻就是说你，还在装人师。

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

@SenRickScott China supply chain and products support world economy.

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

@Predator_fund 逻辑混乱

[Poe Zhao @poezhao0605]

My read on all of this: the Stanford HAI data confirms what I've been tracking. China is the only country that shows up on every AI scoreboard. Models, research, patents, investment.

The gap is real in compute and private capital. The gap is closing in model quality. And in research volume, there is no gap at all.

The question is no longer whether China is a competitor. It's which dimension of the competition you choose to measure.

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

@chuckneely14 @TaupeAvenger U.S. can self embargo and end up like bigger Cuba down the road.

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

@GokTurk010010 @s_m_marandi In California and a few other states there is no minimum age for girls to get married . What’s your point? Pedo is legal now?

[DQQ @_DQQ_1990]

喜闻乐见，苦茶老哥的雄文反驳又又又来了。数据、逻辑和框架果然还是一如既往地经不起推敲。

一、要纠正别人数据错误，先确保自己数据正确

文中的“欧洲对中东原油的直接依赖大约只有5%”，这个数字从哪来的？

Eurostat 2025年Q3数据：仅沙特占EU原油进口的6.8%，伊拉克5.1%，两国合计11.9%。Euronews引用2024年数据，沙特约7%、伊拉克约5.7%，合计12.7%���Energy Institute更高：沙特7.2%、伊拉克6.3%，合计13.5%。BST Europe分析显示MENA国家合计约18%。

小陆师傅写的10-12%比你的5%更接近真实。欧洲依赖度是12%而非5%，意味着霍尔木兹关闭对欧洲冲击比你暗示的严重得多，中国的相对优势也比你承认的更大。一篇以纠错为卖点的文章，在最核心的对比变量上低估了100%以上，也太拉了。

二、“五股力量”论debuff下中国出口份额依旧增长

文中列出2018年以来五股离心力debuff：关税、劳动力成本、地缘风险、制度环境、合规要求。看上去有点道理，但有个问题：WTO数据显示，中国商品出口占全球份额从2018年约12.8%升至2024年的14.6%。2025年贸易顺差创纪���1.19万亿美元。

五股debuff力量同时作用七年，中国份额反而涨了两到三个百分点。这些debuff存在吗？有可能。但你需要它们足以压倒中国结构性优势，七年数据告诉我们做不到。

三、一个月PMI否定长期影响，低级常识错误

文中引用3月PMI，越南51.2、日本51.6、韩国52.6，论证这些国家“没受影响”。但战争2月28日才爆发，3月PMI采集上半月数据，供应链从能源价格传导到制造业产出通常需4-8周。用冲击后不到三周的快照宣布“影响不存在”——好比刚吞下毒药就量了一次血压说指标正常，没中毒；或者泰坦尼克号撞上冰山五分钟后乘客脚还没湿，就宣布船体结构完好。明显的尝试错误。

四、历史反驳自我矛盾

文中说1970年代德国“恰恰在危机后加速向高端制造转型”。你知道到这在说什么吗？你在论证能源冲击确实带来了永久性产业结构重组。这不就是“能源震荡在制造业版图上留下疤痕并改变国家间相对位置”的教科书案例？这不是在验证小陆师傅的大框架么。别写到一半意识模糊忘了自己是在反驳什么。

五、BASF湛江亦是自我矛盾

文中正确指出BASF项目2018年决策，与能源危机无关。但BASF在你说的五股debuff力量全部存在（关税升级、derisking潮流、反间谍法修订）的背景下，不仅没撤，反而2022年逆势开工。这不是真金白银地投票了中国���造业生态的结构性吸引力压过了你列的所有离心力的总和？

你还提到该项目强调“100%可再生电力”——这恰恰证明中国能源转型基础设施的优势。在石油危机中，谁的制造业更能脱离化石能源，谁优势更大。BASF选择用中国的可再生电力而非德国的天然气运行裂解装置，本身就是对中国能源结构优势最好的背书。

最后

你说“绝大多数人没有对经济问题的理解能力”，看完你的反驳雄文，我同意这句话，只是适用对象需要调整一下。

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

成功的山寨者最终被人山寨是最好的认证。

[XZQ @XZQ1336983]

@whiteTony99 日本人是山寨的鼻祖。徳国制造made in Germany 是英国规定打上的标签显识粗制滥造的山寨品

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

@1Smitty71 @pati_marins64 Two much Fox News or Lindsay Graham syndrome.

[SerenityNow @ami_young90117]

@MicheleDalise @ronenbergman It’s indeed embarrassing and obvious. NYtimes act as government psyop operation.