Amish Doshi

Investor , Technology buff.

[Amish Doshi @amishdoshi]

@ActusDei

[Amish Doshi @amishdoshi]

@moneyworks4u_fa On forward PE basis , India is among the expensive global markets today ( Can check MSCI India index and compare with other developed markets or emerging markets ) . Even without parabolic moves .

[Amish Doshi @amishdoshi]

@iRadhikaGupta Any global funds ( Active , passive ) via gift city route funds coming up ?

[Amish Doshi @amishdoshi]

@SahilKapoor Allocation reminds me of Warren Buffett. Good margin of safety and focus on quality.

It seems ahead of times . Very much opposite of sip inflows chasing mid and small caps.

[Amish Doshi @amishdoshi]

@FamyRasheed Is it possible that Gold ETFs may start to trade at premium after few weeks?

[Amish Doshi @amishdoshi]

@suru27

[Amish Doshi @amishdoshi]

@gurjota From their website:

“For whom the term 'long term' means a minimum period of five years.”

[Sahil Kapoor @SahilKapoor]

India vs the world
Earnings growth, Returns & Multiples (all in USD)

Source: DSP 7 Sees
(A deck of 7 visuals for global investors)

@ParthShah_01

[Amish Doshi @amishdoshi]

@SanaSecurities Tiny % of Indians own global stocks or global FOF or global ETFs .
Those who own it know it all why they have allocated it.

[Amish Doshi @amishdoshi]

@datta_arvind I’m reading IOC XP100 has no ethanol but it’s not available at all IOC pumps

[Amish Doshi @amishdoshi]

@1shankarsharma @connectgurmeet 😂😂🫣🫣

[Himanshu Sinha @hsinha1445]

India is supposed to be the anti-AI trade. That's the line you keep hearing.
It's more literally true than most people saying it realise — just not in the way I first thought.

Since the Iran war broke out at the end of February,
The S&P 500 - up 8.6% in dollars
The Nifty 500 is down 4.0% in dollars.
Looks like the US is crushing India.

Now strip the AI names out of the S&P.
What's left — the other ~450 stocks — is basically flat. Down 1.6%.

In local currency, the Nifty 500 is up 0.4% since March.
S&P ex-AI is down 1.6%.
Without the rupee — which fell 4.4% against the dollar this quarter — the broad Indian market has actually slightly outperformed the broad US market.
The entire "India is losing" headline is the rupee plus the AI 50.

What counts as an "AI name"? I borrowed Jensen Huang's frame. He says AI has five layers, and you can see all five inside the S&P 500:

→ Energy — the power, cooling and grid build feeding the data centres: CEG, VST, GEV, NRG, ETN, VRT, TT, JCI, EMR, PWR
→ Chips — every semi from NVDA and AVGO down to the equipment makers and analog. 18 names.
→ Cloud — hyperscalers, data-centre REITs, networking: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AAPL, ORCL, IBM, DLR, EQIX, CSCO, ANET
→ Models — frontier labs. All private (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI). Nothing in the index to subtract.
→ Applications — enterprise software riding on the rest: PLTR, CRM, NOW,
SNOW, ADBE, INTU, CRWD, PANW, FTNT, WDAY, MDB

Add the four public layers and you get 50 names. Roughly half the S&P 500 by market cap. Half the index is one trade.

Two ways to read this -

One: AI is a bubble. The 22% gain in the AI 50 is hot money. At some point, it cracks. When it does, those stocks fall, and the boring half of the market — and India — climb back up to meet them. Everything evens out.

Two: AI isn't a bubble. The data centres, the chips, the electricity, the orders on Nvidia's books — all real. In that world, the AI 50 keeps running. Everything else stays exactly where it is, or drifts lower. The gap doesn't close — it grows.

I don't think it's all a bubble. I don't think it's all real either. It's some mix. But what you think the mix is should change everything about how you're positioned right now.

[Amish Doshi @amishdoshi]

@hsinha1445 Super tweet

[Amish Doshi @amishdoshi]

@moneyworks4u_fa @Prashanth_Krish Why not have both India & some EM ? The long term sustainable competitive advantage in few EM constituents is decent. Fwd PE is low , offers MOS. Long term EM has done as good as us in $ terms.!

[Amish Doshi @amishdoshi]

@KalpenParekh I like both.

[Long Equity @long_equity]

🏰 Monopolies

TSMC - advance semi fab
ASML – EUV lithography
Verisign - domain name registry
Fair Isaac – credit scores
Intuit – tax preparation software
Thermo Fisher – ultra-high-end mass spec
Illumina – high-throughput DNA sequencing
CoStar – U.S. commercial real estate data
Sherwin-Williams – architectural paint distribution (U.S.)

⚔️ Duopolies

Visa / Mastercard – credit cards
Airbus / Boeing – aircraft
PepsiCo / Coca-Cola – drinks
AMD / Nvidia – GPU chips
Apple / Samsung – smartphones
Cadence / Synopsys - chip design software
IDEXX / Zoetis - veterinary diagnostics
Novo Nordisk / Eli Lily - weight loss drugs
ICE / Nasdaq - US stock exchanges

🧱 Oligopolies

Alphabet / Microsoft / Amazon – cloud infrastructure
Fortinet / Crowdstrike / Palo Alto - cybersecurity
AT&T / Verizon / T-Mobile – U.S. telecom
ExxonMobil / Chevron / BP / Shell – oil & gas majors
JPMorgan / Bank of America / Citigroup / Wells Fargo – U.S. big banks
Meta / Google / TikTok / Snap – social media platforms
ADP / Paychex / Paycom / Workday – payroll and HR software
Carrier / Trane / Johnson Controls / Comfort Systems – HVAC and building systems
Moody’s / S&P / Fitch - credit rating
Equifax / Experian / Transunion - credit data
Air Products / Linde / Air Liquide - industrial gas
Booking / Expedia / Airbnb - travel
Heico / Transdigm - aircraft components

What would you add?

[Amish Doshi @amishdoshi]

@moneyworks4u_fa Check forward PE also

[Amish Doshi @amishdoshi]

@ActusDei By that logic , U.S. FPIs should completely exit India .

[Amish Doshi @amishdoshi]

@DietDrsayajirao Our Ancestors used to move all day long . Western guidelines do not make sense for people with sedentary jobs. 60 mins a day probably is bare minimum.