Analytix.AI

#natgas #energy market news/analysis. These are my personal views ONLY. Tweets are not financial/trading advice, and Likes/Retweets are not endorsements.

[Analytix.AI @analytixAI]

@Jason I’m in

[Comdty.AI @ComdtyAI]

Understanding The Hormuz Risk Premium in Global #LNG

1/ The Strait of #Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for LNG. ~90 bcm/year (≈ 8.8 bcfd) of LNG from Qatar & UAE passes through it — roughly 20% of global LNG supply. On average, 6–8 LNG tankers/day transit the strait.

2/ Despite decades of tension, Hormuz has never been fully closed to LNG shipping — even during wars and major regional crises. A full shutdown would also cripple Gulf exporters, making it a last-resort (“nuclear”) option.

3/ Markets still price a Hormuz risk premium. Why?
#Qatar & #UAE LNG have no alternative export routes, so even threats raise LNG prices via higher insurance, freight rates, and supply-loss risk — especially for JKM (Asia) and TTF (Europe).

4/ A real disruption would be severe: losing ~20% of global LNG would tighten supply fast. Asia would be hit first, Europe would feel knock-on price spikes, shipping rates would surge, and buyers would scramble for US LNG and other marginal supply.

Read the full analysis here: https://t.co/fHIpqc3kKx

#ONGT #energy #natgas

[Comdty.AI @ComdtyAI]

Rapid Research: Europe’s New Russia Oil Sanctions: What They Mean for Diesel, Jet Fuel, and Price Risk

1. Expanded Import Ban: Russian-Origin Crude in Third-Country Products
2. Key Exemptions and Carve-Outs
3. Key Impacts on Imports (Jet Fuel & Diesel)
4. Market Impact from Additional Sanctions (as of Jan 2026):

https://t.co/joa89cEAix

#oil #OOTT #energy

[Comdty.AI @ComdtyAI]

Winter Storm Uri Recap: How a Historic Cold Snap Crippled Texas’ Energy System
https://t.co/ArKyeOogSM

#natgas #ONGT #OOTT

[Comdty.AI @ComdtyAI]

Haynesville Curtailment: The Multi-Bcf Question https://t.co/wNE2ntRGY0

Public:

Expand Energy (EXE): Largest US gas producer, ~3.2 Bcf/d Haynesville. 2026 capex guided for “maintenance mode” unless prices rise “materially higher” than $3.50/MMBtu. No plans to add rigs at current strip.

Comstock Resources (CRK): ~4–6 rigs, focus on Western Haynesville. Aggressively reducing D&C costs (now ~$31M/well). 2026 plan is “hold acreage,” with TILs and pad size flexible to price. No 2026 volume growth unless strip >$4.

BP: All have cut rigs or deferred TILs in 2025; BP is considering adding rigs if $4+ strip holds for 2026.

Private:

Aethon Energy: Largest private, 7 rigs, “maintenance mode” in 2025/26. Explicitly requires $5/MMBtu for growth.

GEP Haynesville II, Tellurian: Focused on core; breakevens $2.70–$3.20/MMBtu. No growth at sub-$3.50/MMBtu.

[Comdty.AI @ComdtyAI]

PJM 2026 Forecast: The Load Is Coming (Delayed, Not Denied)
https://t.co/qz3qjYuSnG

PJM 2026–2030 Load Forecast: Key Takeaways

PJM’s 2026 Long-Term Load Forecast (Jan 2026) projects RTO-wide summer peak load to grow at 3.6%/yr (10-yr avg), reaching ~222 GW by 2036 (up ~66 GW from today).

Winter peak load is forecast to grow even faster at 4.0%/yr, reaching ~205 GW by 2036.

Net energy for load is expected to increase by 4.8%/yr over the next decade.

Change vs. Prior Forecast:

Near-term (2026–2032) peak demand was revised down by 0.7–2.6% vs. last year, mainly due to:Stricter vetting of large load (data center) requests
Softer economic/EV adoption assumptions

Long-term growth remains robust, with the main risk being the timing of large load additions, not the magnitude.

#PJM #natgas #Power

[Comdty.AI @ComdtyAI]

The Strait of Hormuz: Global Oil’s Most Critical Chokepoint Explained https://t.co/fBWF8P81ms

#OOTT #Oil

[Comdty.AI @ComdtyAI]

See our Rapid Analysis (Generated with 3-Prompt in 3-Minute)

The Venezuela Shift: Global Oil Market Impacts of US Asset Control

https://t.co/YGOyDtJuwy

[Jason Tidwell @BadfishRanch]

Been playing around with the new updated https://t.co/zbtHwQAU0Q courtesy of @ComdtyAI (it's an excellent natgas agent).
Taking the reported breakeven price estimate, and perusing through individual well data via TXRRC on Waynesville performance to date. I'm can't math these wells to average 32 BCF EUR, not even close. How are these analysts coming up with this??

[Comdty.AI @ComdtyAI]

Golden Pass LNG hits major milestone: first cool-down cargo arrived Dec 2025. 3 trains (total 2.4 Bcf/d) ramping up through early 2027. Bullish for US gas—feedgas demand rising, tightening Gulf Coast basis. Initial exports likely to Europe, shifting to Asia as demand rebounds.

https://t.co/DBYK28RANY

#LNG #ONGT #Natgas #energy #JKM #TTF

[Comdty.AI @ComdtyAI]

https://t.co/HOE2JjNCIE: New Name, New Brains.

We Didn’t Just Rebrand — We Rebuilt Everything

We’re excited to introduce https://t.co/HOE2JjNCIE, rebuilt from the ground up. Our new AI agents deliver insights with the speed and precision of an experienced desk analyst — simply ask a question and get an answer.

Click here to join the wait list to complimentary access:
https://t.co/JcpFN87OHf

[Analytix.AI @analytixAI]

@USAEnergyNatGas Freeze offs built into the 900 HDD case?

[Ben Smith @firstenercast]

heavy gas plant maintenance scheduled for oct

[Amena Bakr @Amena__Bakr]

The additions for October #OOTT #opec

[GasFundies @RealGasFundies]

Pretty big spread between S/D and PipeScrape this week. Risk as high as 63 on the scrapes, but S/D is south of 54 ('south' means 'less than' for nitpickers). #NaturalGas #NatGas

[Analytix.AI @analytixAI]

@BadfishRanch @dindunuffi4429 @USAEnergyNatGas my data shows ERCOT load growth approximately 4% YoY

[Gringo Investments @GringoInvesting]

$RRC Two slides I think are key...

First, production growth. They forecast 400mmcf but only get 250mmcf more takeaway. I don't know the details but my guess is the 150mmcf delta would be in-basin demand - just a guess though.

[Ben Smith @firstenercast]

peak ResComm?
heat-pumps replacing gas furnaces cut winter storage needs.
conservative efficiency gain estimates i've seen would cut ~120bcf each winter going forward

[Analytix.AI @analytixAI]

Haynesville at 41 rigs.
Estimating 10-15% rig efficiency gains since the last time we were at 41 rigs in the Haynesvile.
~46 equivalent

Activity in the region picking up with NG3 and LEG estimated to come on by end of year.

#natgas

[Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx]

Models continue to feature dry and hot 11-15 day forecast biases for Texas.