Grandee

Finance professional (ex BB IB, now mid-market PE) who support #manutd and plays #FPL

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

@rgoestama Dipotong diskon sell-on clause kayaknya

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

@SarjanaEksu Bedanya beli MSCI Turkey masih cuan dalam 10Y timeframe. MSCI Indo cmn jadi exit liquidity 😂

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

100% agree. My worry is more on short-term disruption (e.g. petrol scarcity) rather than long-term energy security

[Pink Bourbon @pinkbourbon8898]

They're right for Japan, Korea, and Singapore. Those guys source 75% of refined products from the Persian Gulf. Hormuz closes, they bleed.

But Indonesia is a different story entirely.

Yes, Indonesia imports refined products. Pertamina's refining capacity doesn't fully cover domestic demand, so Pertalite and Solar get bridged through imports. The Hormuz shock hits that. Real exposure.

What makes Indonesia different is this.

Indonesia's actual risk from this isn't supply. It's fiscal. If oil prices spike because Hormuz stays closed, the government's subsidy bill for Pertalite and Solar expands. Wider deficit, rupiah pressure. That's the bear case for Indonesia, and even that's manageable.

The bull case is what nobody is talking about.

Indonesia runs B40 right now. 40% of every liter of diesel consumed domestically is palm oil biodiesel, not petroleum. When oil spikes, the incentive to push toward B50 or B55 gets stronger overnight. Import volume drops. Indonesia self-hedges using its own CPO supply. No other country in Asia has this. Not Korea, not Japan, not Singapore.

Then there's coal.

When Hormuz disrupts LNG and oil flows into Asia, the fastest lever available to power generators in Japan, Korea, and India is gas to coal switching. Indonesia is the world's largest seaborne thermal coal exporter. ADARO, ITMG, PTBA, BUMI don't suffer from this scenario. Export volumes go up. Realized prices go up. Royalty revenue to the government goes up.

Same logic on LNG. Indonesia exports from Bontang and Tangguh. When Middle Eastern supply gets disrupted, the spot premium on non Gulf LNG widens. Indonesian cargoes price up.

Same logic on CPO. High oil equals strong biodiesel demand globally equals strong CPO prices. Indonesia and Malaysia control 85% of global supply.

You see, Indonesia pays more for refined product imports. Fiscal subsidy pressure rises. Rupiah is a watch item. Those are real negatives.

But Indonesia earns more on coal exports, earns more on LNG spot, earns more on CPO, and reduces net petroleum import volume through accelerated biodiesel blending. The terms of trade move in Indonesia's favor, not against it.

The conventional take is "Indonesia is a net oil importer so oil shock is bad." The correct take is Indonesia is a net energy exporter in the commodities that directly substitute for disrupted Persian Gulf supply. A sustained Hormuz closure improves Indonesia's aggregate energy trade position, not deteriorates it.

Happy Sunday and Happy Easter.

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

@MarioNawfal I thought you can just reroute via South Africa? This is not like Hormuz where its virtually no other way

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

@KobeissiLetter Ghalibaf was right

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

@rayestu Iya, selain saham IHSG, masuknya ke income tax. Malah rate nya lebih gede dibanding capital gain tax negara2 lain

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

US turning into Japan, and Japan money printer goes brrr

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

Own asset or be left behind

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

So much for a hawkish incoming Fed chair.

A Fed–Treasury accord that’s about to fundamentally reshape interest rates.

None of us own enough hard assets.

H/t @zerohedge

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

Should be super bullish for semicon and other contractors for datacenter

[Morning Brew ☕️ @MorningBrew]

Big Tech capex projections this year

Amazon: $200 billion
Alphabet: $185 billion
Meta: $125 billion
Microsoft: $110 billion
Apple: $13 billion

TOTAL: $633 billion

That is more than the GDP of Sweden

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

@escvel0city11 $MU 💪🏻

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

@shanaka86 Given that many US listed companies has international exposure, does this metrics still relevant?

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

@TheDevilsDNA Amorim was Berrada’s pick and they sacked Ashworth for recommending the likes of Frank, Potter etc

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

@FootballTalkHQ We repeatedly make the same mistake by letting the CEO, instead of Sporting Director, hiring a new manager

His system is totally incompatible with the current squad

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

That guy really has an arrogance of peak Mourinho, but has only won 1 FA Cup and 2 community shield 😂

[Fabrizio Romano @FabrizioRomano]

🚨 Arteta: “The best team lost, in my view… especially after 160 minutes”.

“I’m saying that and they [PSG bench] are saying that because they just told me”.

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

China trade surplus with US equals to 1.5% of their GDP. Reduce it to 0, and China’s GDP growth will be cut from 4-4.5% to 2.5-3%

[Rod D. Martin @RodDMartin]

🧵 WHAT YOU'RE NOT HEARING: The Chinese cannot replace the U.S. market. Without it, the Chinese economy collapses.

Here's why.

A thread...

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

😂😂😂

[Restructuring__ @Restructuring__]

Private Equity investors after marking up their portfolio 4% in 1Q and seeing every public company down 20%

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

With 2 penalty shootouts won, he was the best player of the last WC, not Messi. Without him, Argentina would not win the WC

[Footy Humour @FootyHumour]

The master of shithousery 😂😭😂

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

I never thought there is a worse owner than Glazers..

Cutting on benefits will reduce staff morale and will not help on attracting good talent.. A perfect timing considering the team is currently sitting at 15th on the table

[Match of the Day @BBCMOTD]

Manchester United is to close its staff canteen and instead offer employees a free piece of fruit as part of more cost-cutting measures at the club 🍎

#MUFC

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

@eDzulfikar Ga apple to apple ini. Mestinya FR nya principalnya diturunin sesuai schedule pembayaran loan

[Grandee @andesgrandee]

Seems like the player no longer trust ETH. Time to find a new manager