Wow, this is interesting.
23 times the S&P has gained at least 5% in one day.
The next day and a week out = fairly weak returns.
But a year later? Up 26.9% on avg and higher more than 91% of the time. Don't shoot the messenger here.
The S&P 500 peaked exactly a month ago today and we've already seen stocks fall into a 10% correction.
Could this be the peak for the year? We'd say no, as only twice the past 75 years has it peaked in February.
We came into this year with most turning quite bullish and optimistic about the economy. A flush was needed.
Now we have this cover.
Do covers over the top like this happen closer to tops or bottoms?
Researchers Ben Lederer, Tom Kirby & Luke Puetz totaled all Trump’s new tariffs & dollars taxed if none are sidestepped (which most will be in various ways—always are). Comes to 0.72% of annual GDP or $214 billion of new taxes. Not pretty but less than most fear.
Bear markets per decade for the S&P 500 (based on when they started):
'50s - 1
'60s - 3
'70s - 1
'80s - 2
'90s - 0
'00s - 2
'10s - 0
'20s - 2
Could we really have a third bear this decade? Anything is possible but we've never seen 3️⃣ bears start within 5️⃣ years of each other.
Since WWII there have been 48 total 10% corrections on the S&P 500.
How many turned into bear markets? Only 12 of them, so about 25% of the time.
Then don't forget we already had two bear markets to start this decade and those were the two closest bear markets in history.
Yesterday was the worst day of the yr for the S&P 500 at -2.7%.
Turns out even the best yrs usually have a bad day. I found 22 times >20% for the year and the average worst day in those years was -3.5%.
1997 had a 6.9% worst day and still gained 31% for the year in fact.
Since 1990, when the S&P 500 has five consecutive 1% days (like now) a month later things can be dicey, but returns jump to 16.1% on avg a yr later and higher 84.6% of the time (both well above average).
Volatility is the toll we pay to invest.
@MichaelMOTTCM Honestly just curious, are you ever bullish? Being bearish 100% of the time would be similar to a broken clock. If you are bullish at times, what makes you bullish?