Another new high for the NYSE common stock only advance/decline line today.
As we've been saying for months now, this improving breadth backdrop is a good thing and suggests the bull market is alive and well.
41 other times the S&P 500 gained more than 10% in a quarter.
The next quarter was higher 85% of the time.
The next two quarters were higher 85% of the time.
The next year was up a median of 13.4%.
Momentum is real.
The S&P 500 has repeated the same pattern for 100 years.
A technology boom that runs about 24-25 years. Then a decade where nothing happens.
– 1942: electronics and automation. 24 years. +2,536%
– 1966: nine years sideways
– 1975: the PC and the internet. 25 years. +2,665%
– 2000: nine years sideways
– 2009: smartphones, ecommerce, and now AI
2009 plus 24 is 2033.
If the pattern holds, this bull market has seven years of runway left. That sounds bullish. It is.
But look at how the old booms ended. The final stretch was always the steepest part of the curve. 1928. 1965. 1999. The last two years produced the gains people spent the next decade trying to win back.
Bull markets don't die of old age. They die of euphoria.
Seven years on the clock. The wildest ones come last.
Yesterday, $MU, $GLW, $NBIS all dumped more than 10% after the recent AI hardware run. At the same time, names like $RBRK, $DDOG, $PANW held up and even pushed higher – and they all sit in the same place: the data layer.
Is this just a one‑day shakeout, or is capital quietly rotating into the next AI theme – one that isn’t crowded yet?
If you watched the June 25 video I released on YouTube, you’ve already seen the full breakdown of why the next bottleneck after compute is data – and how the stack runs from chips to data infrastructure to applications.
If not, this is a good time to check out the video linked below ⬇️
https://t.co/XTx47cGpCN
We noted this last year (and it worked), but when the S&P 500 is up between 5-10% YTD at the midpoint of the year, the rest of the year usually does quite well.
In fact, worst full year return was exactly flat in 2011, so a large decline from here would be quite rare.
So not too strong, but by no means weak. Yet another reason to continue riding the wave in 2026. 🌊🌊
S&P 500 Q2 up 10% or more?
Q3 lower once and Q4 never lower.
The rest of the year is up 11.7% on average versus average year up 4.9% the final six months.
My dear followers.
Get READY for July, SURVIVE September, and ride the October-November move for 2026.
Here's how every sector PERFORMS month by month during MID-TERMS and what it means heading into July.
July:
- the BROADEST strength of the entire back half
- every single sector finishes POSITIVE
- tech, energy, and consumer discretionary lead with +4% moves
August:
- the rally STALLS
- half the sectors turn NEGATIVE
- biotech $XBI is the standout at +4.52% while energy $XLE and materials $XLB fade
September:
- this is the month to be CAREFUL
- nearly every sector DIPS
- utilities $XLU and real estate $XLRE get hit hardest
- if you're adding exposure, this is where you WAIT
October:
- the TURN
- STRENGTH comes back almost everywhere
- staples $XLP LEAD at +3.91%, but even the LAGGARDS catch a bid.
- this is historically where the midterm LOW gets put in.
November:
- CONTINUATION
- materials $XLB rip +4.57%. industrials $XLI +3.79%. the cyclicals take over
December:
- profit-taking
- almost every sector gives BACK
- tech DROPS -3.45%, energy -3.01%
- the back half rally takes a BREATHER before the post-midterm year kicks in
A lot of traders have setups. But they do NOT know the timing cycles.
I will always make sure you're STEPS ahead of everyone else.
Everyone seems to have all the answers, but few have the money and success. Many years ago, I woke up one morning; I looked into the mirror and I ask myself a very important question: if you're so smart, why aren't you rich? That was the day I started shutting my mouth and listening carefully to those who had more success than me. Because the truth was - at that point - I wasn't that smart yet. But I had to get my ego out of the equation. Then my life changed profoundly.