aravind

In it for the tech.

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

Five dimensional chess doesn’t exist. Everyone is furiously improvising all the time. The future is utterly uncertain.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@iam_smx *trillioniare

[aravind @aravindgee]

@techspence A vast chunk of the current cybersecurity industry is compliance theatre.
Work that needs to be done, but no one has the resources to ask why?

[aravind @aravindgee]

@tobi Definitely one of those things only AI can unlock. Could unleash a ton of creatively for kids

[aravind @aravindgee]

@IAmSteveHarvey That there are actual adults in the world who know what they are doing all the time. Everyone is just winging it.

[Noctara @rumilyrics]

Life about to get even better.

[aravind @aravindgee]

@packyM Vibe coded, of course

[isaac @theisaacmed]

This is crazy levels of manifestation.

[Balaji @balajis]

LIQUIDATION CONTAGION

Wealth taxes are even worse than you think. Any asset held by Californian billionaires or Dutch citizens is now at risk of experiencing forced liquidation pressure.

So: it’s not just that you don’t want to hold assets as a Dutchman. You also don’t want a Dutchman to hold your assets. Because the logic of forced liquidation is contagion.

Let’s think it through.

(1) First, suppose there is an asset with a total market cap of $10,000, with 10 shares total, of which 1 share each is held by 10 different holders, all in the Netherlands. To simplify the math, assume the Dutch holders bought those shares at par, or close to $0.

(2) Now suppose today is the unrealized cap gains tax day, and the share price is $1,000 per share. Each Dutch guy is hit with a 36% tax, and owes $360. The first guy sells his one share, gets $1,000, and pays $360 in tax while retaining $640.

(3) But the first guy’s sale reduces the market price to $960 per share. So when the second guy sells, he only retains $600 after paying $360 in tax.

(4) Now assume that by the 7th guy, all the selling has pushed the share price to collapse to $200 per share. This is a very reasonable scenario if 60% of the cap table has suddenly been dumped. Indeed it might go much lower.

(5) At $200 per share, the 7th guy actually has to go into debt to pay the tax as he owes $360. He sells his one share, pays all $200 of the proceeds in tax. And still owes $160 more in tax.

(6) The 8th, 9th, and 10th guys are even more screwed. By the time they sell, the price will likely have crashed to $100 per share or less. As with the 7th guy, even 100% liquidation will not cover their tax burden.

(7) So we immediately see many negative things about the Dutch unrealized cap gains tax bill.

(a) First, it will cause large simultaneous forced liquidations. Everyone must sell 36% of their stake near the same time.

(b) Second, it may be literally impossible to pay if a critical mass of the cap table is all subject to it at the same time. In the example above it was 100% Dutch holders, but has it been just 60% the result would have been much the same: a collapse in the share price.

(c) Third, that means it would be disastrous to have too many Dutch citizens (or Californian billionaires!) on the cap table. Their forced sales will crash your share price.

(d) So, you might have to start mass blocking those resident in wealth-taxing jurisdictions from investing in your companies.

(e) This in turn makes the poor Western European guy even poorer, as he gets locked out of high growth assets.

To be clear: I really do feel bad for the formerly Flying Dutchmen, now Crying Dutchmen. They invented much of modern capitalism. They founded New Amsterdam, now New York. They’ve punched way above their weight. I wish them only the best.

Nevertheless…they should prepare for the worst. This may be a tough century for Western Europe. The first ones out might get to freedom, while the slowest may be stuck behind a new Iron Curtain, spending a century paying off the debts their states incurred over the last century.

Because the long run fruits of Western Keynesianism are the same as Soviet Communism, in the sense of wealth seizure and pauperization.

I mean, if you knew the future, you wouldn’t want to co-own a farm with a Russian in 1916. For similar reasons, you might not want to co-own a share of stock with Dutch national in 2026. Or with anyone in a seizure-curious jurisdiction…which unfortunately includes much of Western Europe, Canada, and Blue America.

You instead want assets that are not held by those subject to forced liquidations. Now, I grant that this is an unusual way to rank assets…Dutch holders considered harmful?!? Yet it might sadly be necessary to minimize your exposure to liquidation contagion.

PS: guess which crucial stock is most held by the Dutch? ASML. So: this unrealized cap gains tax may not literally be a communist plot, but it would have the same effect.

[Matt Black @matthewjablack]

Just encountered one of the most convincing Google account takeover scams I’ve seen.

Perfect American accent. Calm. Professional.

They start the call by saying someone tried to hack your Google account using a fake death certificate, then ask if you recognize a recovery email or phone number.

They ask if you’ve received any recent Google emails about an account you don’t recognize trying to recover access.

And sure enough, there’s a legit Google security email.

Here’s the trick.

The attacker isn’t trying to hack your account.

They create a throwaway Google account, set your email as the recovery email, then try to recover that account. Google sends you a real security email.

The scammer calls you live, references the email, and even tells you to verify the headers since it comes directly from Google.

The headers are real. That’s the point.

Then they tell you they’re locking down your account and that you’ll get a recovery prompt on your phone. You just need to approve it to stay safe.

The giveaway was the device and location in the prompt didn’t match me. When I pushed back, they claimed it was from their servers, which obviously makes no sense.

At that point I hung up. I have a personal rule to never approve anything I didn’t initiate, especially while on the phone.

Extremely well executed social engineering. I’m sure this works on a lot of people.

And if someone calls you about account security, assume it’s a scam

[Ethereum @ethereum]

Tomorrow: Fusaka

Ethereum’s second major upgrade this year.

→ Feature highlight: PeerDAS - Unlocking up to 8x data throughput. For rollups, this means cheaper blob fees and more space to grow.

Learn more.
https://t.co/3TOda5KjY2

[mert @mert]

A father of two, murdered for thinking he could make a difference by promoting open debate on college campuses

[aravind @aravindgee]

@ambuj0 Totally agree with the lack of engineering rigor. Any vendor only needs to be marginally better than their competitors to get their foot in the door, no incentive for them to do much better. Enterprises are usually held hostage by existing tool stacks or network effects.

[Joe Friday @saintdenispaul]

Canadian Government tweeting about Labour Day haven’t been at work in 8 months.

[Hulk Hogan @HulkHogan]

Every day is a gift. Be grateful, say your prayers, and enjoy the ride.

[aravind @aravindgee]

Yeah agreed, a lot of it is lip service. The vibe is around minimizing liability for the service provider (look how compliant I am with the law! I don't care if it's BS, I have receipts to prove it and don't need to pay a hefty fine) vs providing actual privacy guarantees for the user.

Are you into PETs? What do you think of their potential for use in everyday apps?

[aravind @aravindgee]

@ShreyaPattar Low vs high agency

[aravind @aravindgee]

@AgnesCallard Returns 100% answers, 0% judgement (unless instructed to).

[aravind @aravindgee]

@JJ_McCullough There's no escaping the AI slop on YouTube, wherever we go. Sad state of affairs.