Kara Sıçan 🐀

alt: @kara_sican

[Kara Sıçan 🐀 @architectrader]

all these econ lingo but what they did was just dividing the bilateral deficit by the total imports from thar country lmao

[Kara Sıçan 🐀 @architectrader]

bro you tried to tax penguins

[Stephen Miran @SteveMiran]

Finally, I am able to say something about tariffs I wasn't able to say last year. I'll tell you why at the end of the thread.

[Kara Sıçan 🐀 @architectrader]

If you ever talk to people who are the equivalent of the JPM thrash can lady, they would portray a whole different labor market conditions and what is needed to succeed. Infuriating experience

[Kara Sıçan 🐀 @architectrader]

Did Warsh pick his guy at the WSJ? Who is his Ip/Hilsenrath/Timiraos equivalent?

[Whirly @whirlybard]

Hormuz is closed again, and oil is down.

It is truly remarkable how little I understand.

[Ed Bradford @Fullcarry]

Appropriate that Greenspan dies at par

[Sebastian Trudeau (Yeni) @sonkezchpal]

Kılıçdaroğlu'na seçimi kaybettiren İmamoğlu olsaydı, Erdoğan İmamoğlu'nu hapse atmazdı. Tam tersine mahkeme kararlarıyla onu hak etmediği üst makamlara falan getirirdi.

[Kara Sıçan 🐀 @architectrader]

Also austerity in Europe accelerated China a lot. Chinese bought a lot of critical EU cos/IP and also succesfully twisted the arms of European companies in China because they couldn’t risk their only growing market

[Kara Sıçan 🐀 @architectrader]

Can’t sell capital goods to China forever

[Zoso 🇺🇳(🇮🇶) @MesoAnglic]

Germany really is the sick man of Europe. It was doing fine until COVID, and then it completely collapsed and crashed in on itself since then. Honestly a much worse situation than JP 1990s-now or UK 2007-now

[Kara Sıçan 🐀 @architectrader]

@watling_samuel @Gianpattention I know what you are saying isn’t same but being at 5% wouldn’t even open the doors for a second-rate school in any serious exam country.

[Kara Sıçan 🐀 @architectrader]

@devarbol Out of shame I sometimes try to draw after taking photos in temples, then see the monks themselves scrolling reels

[Kara Sıçan 🐀 @architectrader]

@Brad_Setser More soybeans and boeings in the end

[nesi altaras @nesialtaras]

Foreign islamists love to say this about turkey lol

[Kara Sıçan 🐀 @architectrader]

@_night_brain__ @devarbol Need Gaokao for housing

[Kara Sıçan 🐀 @architectrader]

@DecadentPuff @JamiePastore9 it just retraced half of the covid rally calmly. index itself never went cheap or even normal by historical metrics(at that point)

[Kara Sıçan 🐀 @architectrader]

@JamiePastore9 tbh just sitting could be good, I shorted multiple times to shoveled back the profit I made by spoon elsewhere

[Kara Sıçan 🐀 @architectrader]

The neg carry I paid is around 50% of my initial account at this point, in the meanwhile price went 144 to 160

[dMacro/dBS @dMacro_dBS]

War? USDJPY at 160.
Peace? USDJPY at 160.
BoJ hikes? USDJPY at 160.
BoJ cuts? USDJPY at 160.
MoF intervenes? USDJPY at 160.
Trump turned the WH into a Las Vegas cabaret? USDJPY at 160

Hope this helps!

[Kara Sıçan 🐀 @architectrader]

This is probably the last victory by a western nation

[Kara Sıçan 🐀 @architectrader]

@AlexManzara I was patting myself in the back for not touching it at 4 handles

[Kara Sıçan 🐀 @architectrader]

I don’t scroll much these days but gold and silver making no noise whatsoever, below 23 Mar lows

[Kara Sıçan 🐀 @architectrader]

physical oil(s) are below 100 too + this wouldn’t explain the level

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

The real reason oil is below $100/bbl. It isn’t fundamentals. It’s capital aversion. Policy uncertainty has made oil too volatile to hold. Investor VaR has collapsed by c.$5B. Open interest is at the lowest level in years. Global oil stocks are still drawing 5-6mb/d; however, investors say they don't care.

Start with investor VaR - the best measure of how much capital is willing to engage with oil. It has collapsed to $1.4B (see chart). Not forced out by rising rates, sanctions or external margin calls. Investors are simply choosing not to hold. The policy noise - deal on/off, attack, not attack - has made the carry uncompensable.

VaR compression has one direct consequence: it drains open interest. Contracts are closed. Market depth disappears. 2026 YTD open interest decline is the worst on record. Unlike 2022, there’s no rates shock or sanctions forcing the exit. This is capital aversion.

Managed Money VaR and YTD OI Change