🇯🇵 Japan’s bond market just flashed a major warning...
A “horrible” 10Y JGB auction sent Japanese yields soaring, putting global bonds on edge.
The decades-long yen carry trade is under pressure as cheap Japanese capital has funded everything from U.S. equities to emerging markets.
Why can’t the BoJ simply hike rates? ~14% of Japanese firms are zombies that already pay more in interest than they earn in profit. Higher rates risk mass defaults and a full-blown financial meltdown.
Japan's the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries. If it is forced to sell to defend the yen, U.S. borrowing costs, already near pre-2008 real levels, could spike further.
U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent is intervening hard (even joking about a “buy $5-10B JPY” note photographed, seemingly intentionally, at the Camp David meeting).
Temporary calm is possible, but a structural crisis is the bigger risk: yen instability triggers a Treasury sell-off, which then damages equity and AI sectors.
Tokyo, WE HAVE A PROBLEM!
Source: @Philippilk, @zerohedge, @atrupar / Writer: Jamie
Falling Japanese Currency Is Also America's Problem 🇺🇸 🇯🇵
Japan imports most of what it consumes, so a weaker yen makes everything from food to fuel more expensive, squeezing households and becoming a real political liability for the country's leadership.
But here's where it becomes America's problem too: Japan is one of the largest foreign holders of US government debt anywhere in the world.🤔
If the yen kept collapsing, Japan might eventually be forced to sell off some of that debt just to get enough dollars to defend its own currency.
The Trump Administration delivers for America's trusted partners. Economic security is national security. And the U.S.-Japan alliance is built on both.
Friday's coordinated foreign exchange actions countered disorderly yen movements.
Treasury remains attentive and in close communication with our counterparts at MOF and BOJ. We will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention.
The FIMA Repo Facility is an important backstop. We would encourage it to be upsized in the coming months.
We strongly support Japan's decisive market and monetary steps to correct the substantial undervaluation of the yen.
The Takaichi government is moving into an exciting new phase of Abenomics, as nearly 15 years of powerful stimulus have created durable, robust underlying economic dynamics.