MicroStrategy's position is deteriorating rapidly. In 4 months:
— USD reserves is down 60% to $900M
— Annual div obligations DOUBLED $835M → $1.65B
— Reserve coverage shrank 30 months → 7 months
— BTC sold: 32 BTC (first since 2022)
— STRC @ 11.5%, now trading below par at $97.11
Saylor is running out of cash and options
$MSTR still trades at 1.2mNAV which should provide some short-term relief, but with ~$137M in monthly div expense, it's gonna get uncomfortable
@stacy_muur robotics is just 3D printing v2. Sounds compelling on paper but the economics of commodification will just drive down prices and it'll be a race to the bottom
@morpho just dropped Midnight, a fixed-rate lending protocol on Ethereum:
- Borrow & lend at fixed rates, no more variable rates
- Positions are zero-coupon style units so your rate is locked in at the price you trade
- Makers post offers without locking capital, then funds only move when a deal is filled
- One liquidity position can quote across many markets simultaneously
- Markets are isolated, immutable and permissionless
- Liquidations don't wipe your position out entirely, only enough is seized to restore health
- Bad debt is recognized instantly, closing the window for informed lenders to front-run losses
- Fees are hardcapped in the contract forever (max 50bps on trades, 1% annually on credit)
Humanoid robots are going to be the largest wealth creation event of the next decade. Here is how I am playing it before everyone else figures it out.
Most people are waiting for Figure or Boston Dynamics to IPO at $30 to $50 billion. By then the easy money is gone.
My play is two stocks that are already in production with real humanoid customers today.
$AMBA — The brain. The edge AI inference chip that processes everything the robot sees in real time. On device. In milliseconds. 15 years of software depth baked in. One of the only Western pure play edge AI chips at scale. Already in production with autonomous vehicle and robotics customers globally.
$VPG — The senses. Precision force sensors and strain gauges that tell the robot what it is feeling. How hard it is gripping. How much weight it is carrying. Whether it is about to drop something. Already booking orders with four different humanoid developers. CEO confirmed low teens millions in humanoid revenue coming within a few years at $400 to $500 sensor content per robot.
A humanoid without $AMBA cannot think. A humanoid without $VPG cannot feel.
The wave is coming. I am not waiting for the IPOs.
$AMBA $VPG
@benjamincowen question:
if this chart is correct, how do you reconcile BTC being at its cycle peak whilst the rest of the market is being obliterated?