ashley fox

[ashley fox @ashleyfox4]

@BeenThereCap Great and honest thread. This is the muscle memory that many now have. The fear of missing the huge turn. You could be right, but I sense it could go down and stay down far longer than the last money printing induced rally. Constraints change. So must we.

[ashley fox @ashleyfox4]

@PeterMallouk Analog thinking. Why is the past the future?

[ashley fox @ashleyfox4]

@PeterSchiff This is not a flight to the US because it holds some magic safety, deep markets, strong companies. That is the history of flows. Now its all about the NEED for USD. The US economy will suffer hugely due to the historic disregard for the offshore system. it will be your problem.

[ashley fox @ashleyfox4]

@PeterSchiff The eurodollar system is likely to be the cause of the next global economic collapse. The world buys USD bcse it created offshore ledger USD and now cannot fund it via trade or further lending. The FED will not play ball in the size needed. The US rampage will collapse EVERTHG

[ashley fox @ashleyfox4]

@MacroAlf So much talk of mkts selling GBP and so little about the NEED to BUY USD. Our ledger dollar liability are vast and this angle gets almost zero attention. the UK has very little way to get hold of USD via trade, no natural reserve pool and whatever we had we need for surviving.

[ashley fox @ashleyfox4]

@EdConwaySky 4)I suspect we are heading into a global USD crisis with pockets of extreme pain. The UK is one of those highly vulnerable economies. The GBP crisis is likely to make the ERM look small fry. Huge economic and political impacts loom

[ashley fox @ashleyfox4]

@EdConwaySky 3) there is no easy policy repsonse. The BoE QT plans are in disarray as they need to support the gilt issuance and likely back to QE. This is a currency disaster - leading to more inflation.
The circular loop of currency pain is on full display

[ashley fox @ashleyfox4]

@LukeGromen Agree. I think the Boj intervention marks the next stage: attempting to supply $ to fund the vast eurodollar pile. Many other surplus nations with reserves will follow. However, this will likely exhaust very quickly due to the sheer scale of the offshore usd mkt. One step closer

[ashley fox @ashleyfox4]

@elerianm @MarketWatch Gbp is very vulnerable given the structural trade (usd generating deficit), add energy, politics and fiscal pump and this could unwind with GBPUSD below parity very soon.

[ashley fox @ashleyfox4]

@elerianm @MarketWatch The US will not want to extend $ funding to these parties as the focus is domestic. There is likely to come a Minsky moment of vast FX disruption. This is only just starting to show in funding mkts but i expect it to become a very big problem very fast.

[ashley fox @ashleyfox4]

@MacroAlf thanks as ever - that's a great map - can i ask who produces that ?

[ashley fox @ashleyfox4]

@MissioMusic @RealVision @Bitcoin I think it's a shortage versus vast external usd debt that has no domestic supplier of the currency that rolls, services or eliminates the debt. The old recycling of usd to these places is broken bcse of oil prices, supply chains and new trade regimes.

[ashley fox @ashleyfox4]

@TheStalwart Nick Timiraos under the desk?

[ashley fox @ashleyfox4]

@MacroAlf The northern European surplus policies set by financial repression are truly haunting them. The constraints on the ECB have totally changed this time with rampaging CPI so I assume the risk of a major disappointment from the repression squad is much higher. Euro could break 1.0

[ashley fox @ashleyfox4]

@MacroAlf one common macro musing i hear at the moment is the ability of precious metals to preserve wealth during the inflation meltdown. Fridays cpi print was the "ideal" moment for the trade to work. Yet AGAIN it trades awful. The USD vortex is swallowing precious longs and will cont.

[ashley fox @ashleyfox4]

@Callum_Thomas crisis and a rampaging USD. So really, everything is linked. It always is - but often we cant see it at the time.

[ashley fox @ashleyfox4]

@Callum_Thomas this is a systemic risk and hence links the entire system together. The energy crisis, over pumping of the money system and deglobalisation have meant that the excess USD supply is not well supplied over the global system but rather its pooled. This will drive a global liquidity