The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5.33%, the highest since 2002. Our national debt in 2002 was just $6 trillion. Paying 5.33% on that entire amount would cost $319.8 billion annually. On today’s $40.1 trillion debt, it would cost $2.14 trillion annually—more than Social Security.
Meta crushed it today. You have to give credit when credit is due. That was an awesome keynote. The VR glasses are incredible. They leapt frogged Apple completely. Apple needs to figure something out fast. The Duo, touchscreen MBP, a wearable AI pendant, AI glasses, are all playing catch up. They don't spark magic. Meta just sparked magic with the VR glasses. Apple's next AVP (set to be released late 2028/2029) needs to quantum leap past Meta's VR glasses. Even just making it slightly better isn't enough. Meta VR glasses weigh 100g and cost $1300. M5 AVP + band weighs 750-800g and costs $3,700. It's no comparison. Can't stress enough how important what just happened today was. If Apple doesn't step up in a real way it was a changing of the guards moment.
The US 10Y Note Yield is now moving in a literal straight-line higher, up to 5.13%.
This is no longer an issue that we have months or years to address.
This is unsustainable.
What if by 2029 the national debt is $50 trillion and the average interest cost is 8%? Interest on the debt would be $4 trillion per year, over 60% of federal tax revenue, and annual budget deficits would likely exceed $5 trillion. This is optimistic, as it assumes no recession.
If it looks like a duck.
And it walks like a duck.
And it quacks like a duck.
It's must be a duck.
It it looks like yield curve control.
and it has the same effect as yield curve control.
The USA must be doing YIELD CURVE CONTROL.
The Saudis sign a trilateral security agreement with Pakistan and Turkey.
There is no other image that more clearly symbolizes Trump’s failure than the Gulf states seeking regional security arrangements.
While I'm not an equities specialist, I do think the spell has been broken, and am viewing these violent rebounds as deadcats, with the expectation that crypto will catch shrapnel early, but also bottom earlier than equities do.
Biden drained our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and now Trump has drained it even further to mask the impact of his war with Iran…
The lowest level in over 40 years.
President Trump’s threat to destroy civilian infrastructure—like bridges and power plants—is a textbook example of failed coercion
History shows this failed in Vietnam
It will not force Iran into submission
Escalation becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy