Austin LeBahn

I post things that I find interesting on private market investing, economics, traditional art, holistic health, & esoteric philosophy | Opinions only mine alone

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

Mark Zandi, the Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics recently released a state-level business cycle analysis which had the stark headline: roughly 1/3 of U.S. GDP comes from states that are classified as “in recession” or “high risk”. That’s a headline to pay attention to 🧵

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

@PadraicMcC Thanks for sharing! Always interesting seeing how other LMM folks approach sourcing.

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

@sourcesandmuses Congrats, TK!

Stoked to read the *future* thread about the process.

Equally excited to hear updates on how operating the biz.

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

@PadraicMcC Industrial services (e.g., reliability & preventative maintenance, calibration & precision, rotating & electromechanical repair, etc.)

Great space that isn’t completely oversaturated (yet).

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

@PadraicMcC Super simple, yet punchy.

Love it. Thanks for sharing.

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

@_PE_Charles My view is that roll-over helps:

(1) De-risk the investment
(2) Validate that the seller's forecasts aren't BS
(3) Requires less debt + equity to be used/raised

Especially important in the LMM where keyman risk is ~50% of the total risk (in most cases).

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

Cases like these further emphasize how analysis/diligence is totally being commoditized across PE.

At a certain point, the only differentiators a PE firm will have during diligence are:
1.) How much are you willing to pay
2.) How strong is your relationship with the seller

[Rohit Mittal @rohitdotmittal]

Private Equity is starting to build internal tools using AI.

2 examples I saw recently:
1. Ethos Capital (~$7B) says they spent about 5 years building Petra on 50,000+ sources. They claim their first-pass diligence on every pitch went from 2–4 weeks to ~30 minutes.

They are also marketing the AI transformation of their own companies.

2. Hg Capital said CINC Systems (community/HOA software) shipped a full AI suite in 3 months with Hg Catalyst. They claim that an application submitted by the homeowner that was previously rejected now gets approved 80% of the time with AI guidance.

AI will transform and re-rate everything. The PE world is trying to adapt quickly.

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

Phenomenal primer on deal negotiation 101.

Very relevant for LMM & SMB investing. Keeping this in my back-pocket.

[Mark Suster @msuster]

Some notes on Negotiations

1/ When you finish any complex deal you will feel fatigued and worn out. It sometimes feels hard to celebrate. The best deals feel this way. Complex negotiations require compromises. When both (or all) parties make concessions nobody feels great. Everybody felt like they gave more than they wanted. And all wish the other party would have folded easier. That’s the definition of a good negotiation

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

@Friedrich__Wil @TheSalonDon Spoken like someone who has never had children lol.

Quit projecting.

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

@Bowtiedplayer Well done sir.

Guessing by the chalk, no straps?

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

@sourcesandmuses What if the seller is a 4-hour flight away? 😅

More reason to pursue deals in your local geography lol.

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

@OneManLBO Incredible.

I would imagine this being that much more effective for home services & blue collar business, too.

Thank you so much sir.

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

@OneManLBO This is a phenomenal take.

Any advice on ways to display authenticity via a cold call?

May be a dumb question, but my gripe is that you only have a few sec to make an impression before the owner decides to hang-up or hear you out.

Would love to know your thoughts.

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

Responses from the 2025 Axial Independent Sponsor survey.

Unsurprisingly, B2B Services & Industrials are the most popular sectors (think HVAC / home services).

Concentration toward the 4-6x multiple range, which is typical for LMM value-oriented investing.

Interesting stuff.

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

100%.

To layer in an additional theme: once you have a family, ~90% of your efforts to "over-optimize" your life get put to the wayside.

Out of the many many lessons you learn when you are a husband & father, one of the most remarkable ones is how much of the optimization stuff ultimately doesn't matter vs the needs of your family (& rightfully so).

I've never seen a jacked guy who religiously tracks their sleep score, has a meaningful career, reads >20 books per year, & journals every morning who ALSO is in good standing with his family.

Very few exception cases for entrepreneurs who cash-out early, but the point is that trade-offs occur that the "optimization crowd" tends to ignore.

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

100%.

To layer in an additional theme: once you have a family, ~90% of your efforts to "over-optimize" your life get put to the wayside.

Out of the many many lessons you learn when you are a husband & father, one of the most remarkable ones is how much of the optimization stuff ultimately doesn't matter vs the needs of your family (& rightfully so).

I've never seen a jacked guy who religiously tracks their sleep score, has a meaningful career, reads >20 books per year, & journals every morning who ALSO is in good standing with his family.

Very few exception cases for entrepreneurs who cash-out early, but the point is that trade-offs occur that the "optimization crowd" tends to ignore.

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

@BoringBiz_ Excellence is the epitome of delayed gratification.

Every expert in every field ever invested the upfront time & discipline to hone their craft.

In a world of abundant instant gratification & get rich schemes, this lesson becomes more & more apparent.

[Austin LeBahn @austin_lebahn]

@thematthew So true.

There's such a fixation in western culture (namely U.S.) where we are obsessed with optimizing every aspect of our lives.

In reality, it's as simple as intuitive living & listening to our grandparents advice.

People don't like "simple" solutions though lol.