New note from @ChicagoFed looking at the link between consumer sentiment and consumer spending.
"However, in recent years the link between these measures and spending growth has weakened."
https://t.co/bb5XlskFpp
Great data below from PNC. Similar to what BofA is seeing on deposit trends
"A rise in deposits should support younger and lower-income consumers most, helping narrow the “K” shape further"
Usually a lurker on here but dipping my toes briefly into the "k-shaped economy" discourse.
At PNC we track the debit & credit spending trends of a fixed cohort of ~4 million households.
Long story short: lower-income spending/balance sheet trends have been on a tear in 2026
Over the last 15 years as an economist looking at global macro, industrials, automotive, and transportation sectors, never once did I consider the Knicks winning a Finals game as a remote possibility.
Not trading/investment advice.
BofA: In March 2026, the median lower-income household spent 4.2% of their income on gasoline, up from 3.9% a year earlier and above 2019 levels, according to Bank of America internal customer deposit data. However, these shares are well below the levels they reached in 2022
Per Manheim: Wholesale used-vehicle prices were higher YoY in March; the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index increased 6.2% YoY.
Values increased 1.4% over the month of March, a jump well above long-term norms, and are higher by 2.3% compared to the start of the year.
Used car and truck prices declined 0.4% in March, the 4th consecutive monthly drop. However, it is unlikely that this source of disinflation persists. Wholesale auction prices have been climbing in recent months. That will bleed into consumer prices in Q2.
Never a bad time to revisit Sergio's Confessions of a Capital Junkie (over five years old now). Any other good examples of CEO-led capital focused presentations? https://t.co/cWIixUoL1S
Volkswagen AG is exploring the sale of as much as 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) of stock in Traton SE - taking advantage of the truck maker’s surging price to increase the number of shares available for trading
https://t.co/FONalZiOhN