Avinash Raheja

Unlearning and Learning | Fin. Markets | F1 |Badminton

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

@Energy_Tidbits @mckonomy Talk about asymmetric information with 'The House'!!

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

@Convertbond Besides the ~$98 Bn the Yentervention has cost the Japanese Government about 30 bps escalation in borrowing costs on a debt pile of over $9 T. All in just about 1 momth. How awesome is that!

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

@Convertbond Japan has seen a rise of over 1% across the entire yield curve over the last 12 months. With Debt/GDP at 2.5x that 1% increase in yields translates to an increase in debt (by virtue of only interest payments) to increase by a magnitude of 2.5% of GDP. And GDP growth of 1.2%!

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

@CommodMkt In your recent interview with @MarioNawfal you highlighted the very high crack spreads. Going back to 2007, 8 out of the 9 times (exception being just May'22), we've seen such a huge spike in cracks, we've seen WTI take off! SPR refills better hurry up! @Convertbond

[Willem Middelkoop @wmiddelkoop]

Show some class @JoeSquawk 🙏

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

@saxena_puru Most strong hands would have exited by now. Weaker hands still chasing a delusion, not a dream.

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

@Convertbond @dmoses34 Larry you've been fab in all your podcasts and interviews in recent months. Yesterday's selloff in stocks accelerated on good jobs data. Tells us markets want cheap money (no rate hikes) not a good economy? It's been speculation in max mode isn't it!

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

@duediligenceguy @DoombergT And @ArjunNMurti adds some great depth to it! Great interview @CommodMkt @AshBennington
https://t.co/Ic1GrP5L5p

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

@Convertbond Larry, the US Fiscal deficit is expected to clock $1.9T in 2026. But this senate report states total gross national debt is $2.70 trillion higher. Love to hear your thoughts on this @Convertbond
https://t.co/NUoAEM8v1J

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

By far one of the best interviews I've heard in a very long time! Massive!

[Julia La Roche @JuliaLaRoche]

The feedback on the @TruthGundlach episode has been incredible, so I'm posting the pod here on X too. 🙏

In his debut on The Julia La Roche Show, Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, breaks down why private credit is an unmitigated disaster, why the next recession will send rates up and the dollar down, and why most American investors are completely unprepared for what's coming.

Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction & welcome Jeffrey Gundlach
1:33 Big picture macro: secular shift from falling to rising interest rates
16:00 The case for 100% non-US stocks
17:30 Gundlach's current asset allocation
22:00 Private credit and why it's a “total unmitigated disaster"
38:00 The Fed follows the 2-year Treasury - next move a rate hike?
42:30 Recession odds
47:00 Capital preservation mode: lowest risk positioning in DoubleLine's 17-year history
50:00 The gold call
53:00 The most dangerous force in investing
56:00 California headed for bankruptcy?
1:01:00 Non-consensus prediction: three parties on the ballot in the next presidential election
1:02:00 The Fourth Turning

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

@KarelMercx Great stuff! Thank you so much

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

@jameshenryand @InProved_Metals Wow! Can you share the link to that data source James

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

China Urges Banks to Curb Exposure to US Treasuries .

@gave_vincent Is this an indication to exit USD before some sort of a revaluation? #USDCNY
https://t.co/z5DS0p3JDj

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

https://t.co/QAVnQs6SJ5
Great stuff by @silverguru22 on a key factor that sparked the liquidations in Silver. $AGQ

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

@jameshenryand SHFE and MCX were frozen on lower circuits yesterday so both may still have some clearing to do on the next open. MCX is trading tom Sun due to the special Budget session.

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

@silverguru22 Shanghai and Mumbai exchanges have always had much higher margins in 20's which would prevent the event of such forced liquidations. Don't we think CME Margins are way too low?

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

@wmiddelkoop That doesn't seem correct Willem.
Wonder what Spot rate that is. Physical is selling cheaper than MCX Futures in India (keeping aside the 3% GST difference between the two).

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

@Convertbond Incidentally, exactly one month ago on the 29th of Dec we had a similar scare for the metals. Shaking off the weak hands.

[Avinash Raheja @avinashraheja]

Notice that practically every major mainstream Financial news channel has its anchors questioning Gold and Silver's rally, planting FUD, digging for some seeds of doubt from their guest speakers. Classic indicator the market's strength in the longer term is far more durable.