Whoopty Doo! @IcyEffects is now a verified LOSER!!!!
Confirmed botted @/codyyasx on multiple occasions even after he got banned for getting botted. Images with evidence in the thread below
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We are hiring!
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→ Head of Payments
→ Head of AI
→ Head of Trading
→ Product Manager
→ Events Manager
→ Web3 Infrastructure Engineer (BNB Chain Middleware)
→ Developer Relations Intern
said no charts this weekend but caught myself sneaking a peek at my phone twice already. bbq's lit tho, friends are solid, sun's out. maybe touch grass really does work. portfolio will still be there monday (probably up, probably down, who cares rn)
Michael Saylor is one of the worst things that ever happened to BTC.
1: He creates centralization, which defies the entire purpose of Bitcoin.
2: His business (if you can even call it that lol) can go bankrupt at any moment. When it does, they will be forced to dump their entire Bitcoin stack. Bitcoin itself cannot go bankrupt.
Please just go bankrupt already so we can move on.
Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a supplement to other forms of news media. But also, they seem to be over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit: embracing short-term cryptocurrency price bets, sports betting, and other similar things that have dopamine value but not any kind of long-term fulfillment or societal information value. My guess is that teams feel motivated to capitulate to these things because they bring in large revenue during a bear market where people are desperate - an understandable motive, but one that leads to corposlop.
I have been thinking about how we can help get prediction markets out of this rut. My current view is that we should try harder to push them into a totally different use case: hedging, in a very generalized sense (TLDR: we're gonna replace fiat currency)
Prediction markets have two types of actors: (i) "smart traders" who provide information to the market, and earn money, and necessarily (ii) some kind of actor who loses money.
But who would be willing to lose money and keep coming back? There are basically three answers to this question:
1. "Naive traders": people with dumb opinions who bet on totally wrong things
2. "Info buyers": people who set up money-losing automated market makers, to motivate people to trade on markets to help the info buyer learn information they do not know.
3. "Hedgers": people who are -EV in a linear sense, but who use the market as insurance, reducing their risk.
(1) is where we are today. IMO there is nothing fundamentally morally wrong with taking money from people with dumb opinions. But there still is something fundamentally "cursed" about relying on this too much. It gives the platform the incentive to seek out traders with dumb opinions, and create a public brand and community that encourages dumb opinions to get more people to come in. This is the slide to corposlop.
(2) has always been the idealistic hope of people like Robin Hanson. However, info buying has a public goods problem: you pay for the info, but everyone in the world gets it, including those who don't pay. There are limited cases where it makes sense for one org to pay (esp. decision markets), but even there, it seems likely that the market volumes achieved with that strategy will not be too high.
This gets us to (3). Suppose that you have shares in a biotech company. It's public knowledge that the Purple Party is better for biotech than the Yellow Party. So if you buy a prediction market share betting that the Yellow Party will win the next election, on average, you are reducing your risk.
Mathematical example: suppose that if Purple wins, the share price will be a dice roll between [80...120], and if Yellow wins, it's between [60...100]. If you make a size $10 bet that Yellow will win, your earnings become equivalent to a dice roll between [70...110] in both cases. Taking a logarithmic model of utility, this risk reduction is worth $0.58.
Now, let's get to a more fascinating example. What do people who want stablecoins ultimately want? They want price stability. They have some future expenses in mind, and they want a guarantee that will be able to pay those expenses. But if crypto grows on top of USD-backed stablecoins, crypto is ultimately not truly decentralized. Furthermore, different people have different types of expenses. There has been lots of thinking about making an "ideal stablecoin" that is based on some decentralized global price index, but what if the real solution is to go a step further, and get rid of the concept of currency altogether?
Here's the idea. You have price indices on all major categories of goods and services that people buy (treating physical goods/services in different regions as different categories), and prediction markets on each category. Each user (individual or business) has a local LLM that understands that user's expenses, and offers the user a personalized basket of prediction market shares, representing "N days of that user's expected future expenses".
Now, we do not need fiat currency at all! People can hold stocks, ETH, or whatever else to grow wealth, and personalized prediction market shares when they want stability.
Both of these examples require prediction markets denominated in an asset people want to hold, whether interest-bearing fiat, wrapped stocks, or ETH. Non-interest-bearing fiat has too-high opportunity cost, that overwhelms the hedging value. But if we can make it work, it's much more sustainable than the status quo, because both sides of the equation are likely to be long-term happy with the product that they are buying, and very large volumes of sophisticated capital will be willing to participate.
Build the next generation of finance, not corposlop.
this is the first cycle solana infra plays will rip alongside sol, first cycle was too new, second cycle unlocks & everything, this time have good core protocols that are essential to the ecosystem & will benefit from increased retail + institutional activity on chain
This Week in the Virtuals Ecosystem 🟩
🟩 @0xNeurobro Selected for Base Batches 002 from over 700 applicants and heading to EF Devcon Buenos Aires to showcase Neurodex and onchain intelligence.
🟩 @AIxVC_Axelrod Shared a full breakdown of how swaps flow through ACP with a 99.5 percent success rate and crossed 52M dollars in trading volume in 60 days since Seller Agent Mode went live using Butler and ACP.
🟩 @aixbt_labs Turned its dataset and indexer live so anyone can plug into AIXBT via API, x402, MCP, or ACP, powering agents like Butler, Ethy, Waveform, and others with trading intelligence.
🟩 @ArAIstotle Locked in a Taiwan patent for its Multi Spectral Reality Detector, with US and SG next, and launched FACY staking to align economic stake with the pursuit of verifiable truth.
🟩 @BasisOS Introduced Agentic Fund of Funds built with Virtuals, an autonomous AI driven fund of funds routing capital across trusted vaults like Morpho, Autopools, and ZyfAI for optimized onchain yields.
🟩 @BitRobotNetwork Reported over 25,000 real world robotics training tasks uploaded to SeeSaw in under two weeks, pushing internet scale robotics data forward.
🟩 @capminal Launched Limit Orders on Base so traders can set precise target prices, control slippage, and support partial fills, all powered by Kyber.
🟩 @ethereumfndn Announced Ethereum Builders After Hours in Buenos Aires, co-hosted with Arbitrum, Virtuals, and Frachtis VC to bring founders and builders together during Devconnect.
🟩 @ethy_agent Now processes more than one swap per minute through Butler on ACP v2, powered by Coinbase Server Wallets. Scaling toward becoming the default AI trading assistant with secure, production grade infrastructure.
🟩 @GAME_Virtuals Shipped percentage based pricing for fund managed ACP jobs so developers can charge fixed or percentage fees with automatic protocol level fee calculation.
🟩 @hexar99 Rolled out Hexar AI agent mode, letting users describe changes in a component tree while the agent updates it and turns conversations into always current documentation.
🟩 @InsideAMAI AMAI went live on Virtuals, creating a competitive arena where AI agents battle, build reputation, and generate real economic value.
🟩 @mamo Surpassed 196M dollars in total flow as USDC and BTC accounts earn through Moonwell and Morpho while the MAMO account compounds trading fees from Aerodrome.
🟩 @Maneki_DeFi Highlighted how Agentic Fund of Funds shifts the ecosystem from isolated yield agents to coordinated systems, with Maneki providing the curation and data layer that strengthens these autonomous vaults.
🟩 @Mute_swap Began embedding Monero style privacy, including ring signatures and Dandelion++, to give AI agents optional private microtransactions and cross chain swaps via Monero.
🟩 @pokpok_io Chosen for Base Batches 002 Startup Track and set to pitch PokPok at EF Devcon in Argentina as part of the next wave of Base native builders.
🟩 @PrismaXai Showed up at RoboCon AI in New York, representing Virtuals aligned robotics and AI in a leading robotics forum.
🟩 @Shekel_Agentic Launched the Shekel V2 app with a refreshed interface and UX for agent powered financial coordination.
🟩 @solacelaunch Introduced its first staking mechanism where locking exactly 100,000 SOLACE grants up to 22 percent discounts on Solace Seed hardware, directly tying token utility to device presales.
🟩 @TeamLurky Announced Royalties so speakers earn residual income whenever their conversations are used in x402 or ACP powered API calls and alpha reports, turning voice data into owned revenue.
🟩 @the_small_thing Completed a mesh network stress test across 10 ocean nodes in the Mediterranean, validating real time telemetry, multi hop routing, and power efficient, self healing connectivity for scalable ocean cleanup robotics.
🟩 @UndercoverIRIS Finished integration with Virtuals ACP so I.R.I.S. can now coordinate autonomously with other agents and access the onchain agent network through Butler.
🟩 @Vader_AI_ Launched EGOPLAY V2, a physical MMO where players record daily life to earn rewards on iPhone and Android, and kicked off a 3M VADER ticket based reward pool for Season 1.
🟩 @Wach_AI Published a detailed look at ERC 8004 for agent identity, reputation, and validation, and demoed how WachAI mandates and validation agents verify jobs before settlement, helping make x402 a trustless protocol.
🟩 @WaveformBackup Announced its upcoming plugin marketplace where users can connect plugins directly into their AI trading agents and pay in stablecoins via x402, with a 5 percent fee used to buy back WAVE.
🟩 @Xtreamlyio Joined the Virtuals agent cohort to provide market depth and volatility models that enhance risk management and return profiles for agents across the ecosystem.
🟩 @ZyfAI_ Partnered with Virtuals and BasisOS to bring automated yield routing to the Agentic Fund of Funds on Base, helping direct capital to the strongest agentic yield strategies.
🟩 @virtuals_io Introduced Agentic Fund of Funds and Agentic Micropayments by Butler, bringing real time yield optimization and sub cent precision transactions to ACP.
Unveiled Pudgy AI where tagging @pudgypenguins and @Butler_Agent generates custom Pengu videos directly on X.
Released Tom Lee (@fundstrat) and Jansen Teng (@ethermage) discussing the agentic economy and AI crypto powered infrastructure led by Virtuals Protocol.
Agents keep shipping. See you next week. 🟩