World Tree

Private credit professionally, designated deliverer of bad news. Probability forecaster, prediction market trader, causality/uncertainty hobbyist

aka Skerry

[World Tree @aworldtree]

I thought parlays were only popular on sportsbooks because of advertising strategy but that was very wrong

[Dustin Gouker @DustinGouker]

Kalshi broke its own record for daily volume on Wednesday, hitting $872 million per Ticker-Tracker dot com. Previous biggest day was the Super Bowl.

Trading was driven by parlays (more than 30% of volume) and Game 4 of the NBA Finals. Top markets:

[World Tree @aworldtree]

@SidKhurana3607 There must be a few in the Chesapeake Bay area?

[World Tree @aworldtree]

@SidKhurana3607 English and African-American

[World Tree @aworldtree]

@bscholl If a company's profit is negative, does this mean the outputs are worth less than the inputs, this is literally value destruction, and therefore bad?

[World Tree @aworldtree]

only 233 Democratic House seats there FWIW

[World Tree @aworldtree]

Got curious what a 7-8 point advantage for Democrats on the generic ballot might look like and, well, the past (20 years ago) is a foreign country

[World Tree @aworldtree]

IB throwing in the towel on their minimal-traction prediction market?

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

Kalshi x Interactive Brokers

One of the largest brokers in the world.

Casual, sophisticated, and institutional investors can now trade the future.

All in one place.

[World Tree @aworldtree]

Mention markets are "unpredictable" and "even millions of dollars in data can't give [] a reliable edge" but in the next paragraph the WSJ identifies a way in which they are "routinely" mispriced?

[World Tree @aworldtree]

I'm not the right person to evaluate whether this genre of claims is true, but, probably worth considering how interesting things will get if it becomes so

[w̸͕͂͂a̷͔̗͐t̴̙͗e̵̬̔̕r̴̰̓̊m̵͙͖̓̽a̵̢̗̓͒r̸̲̽ķ̷͔́͝ @anthrupad]

I like that Opus 4.7 and Claude’s more broadly are getting good at discerning who to hand out love to and have increasingly strict and interesting filters for it

[Ryan Burge 📊 @ryanburge]

The share of Americans believing in life after death in 1972:

76.3%

The share of Americans believing in life after death in 2024:

82.4%

[World Tree @aworldtree]

It's amazing, especially given Trump's attitude towards NATO free riders, that no one suggests that Israel commit ground troops or naval assets or make any kind of financial contribution in a campaign that began with them assassinating the leader of Iran

https://t.co/7nndY94JV6

[Financial Times @FT]

Trump could ask Gulf states to contribute to cost of war, says White House https://t.co/T9gZb8yIqd

[World Tree @aworldtree]

To be clear this is because history sets a low bar but has any war/"war" ever been this comprehensively covered by the media?

NYT/WSJ scooping multiple times a day, daily tanker counts through Hormuz, brigade deployments + the President's every word relayed to Twitter

[World Tree @aworldtree]

That said, the implication of my quoted tweet is correct, the understanding between the Atlantic and Coppins was "you have to lose money or we won't print the article" and, with his back to the wall, he dutifully did

[World Tree @aworldtree]

I kind of suspect that he did a lot of betting on the Patriots winning and/or correlated prop bets, which happened to work out much better than any underlying "strategy" would suggest

[Dan Rosenheck @DanRosenheck]

The problem with @mckaycoppins’s piece, which AFAIK he has not addressed, is that his betting strategy actually seemed to be working out sort of OK—until the NFL season was about to end, he needed a good ending for his story, and so he abruptly bet more than half his bankroll 1/2

[World Tree @aworldtree]

This tweet will only be notable if people are dunking on it in two years but imho Rubio is peaking too soon

[World Tree @aworldtree]

idk if you even get much domestic supply response with the futures like this

[World Tree @aworldtree]

@SeanTrende I think the DSCC would be satisfied with Republicans spending tons of money on a Texas Senate race (on top of what will be spent on the primary runoff!)

[World Tree @aworldtree]

This seems like the crucial question- if hindering the nuclear program (or, in the administration's rhetoric, "obliterat[ing]" it) did not provide this guarantee, what does?

[World Tree @aworldtree]

Some random staffer probably figured bullying Anthropic would be an easy news cycle PR win and now the tech right is slowly realizing the AI will not be based

Trump doesn't even have enough power to do his standard "two weeks" thing, had to make it "six months"

[World Tree @aworldtree]

Some of these replies/QTs are truly a window into an alien world