@julie_wade Bonds are chill.
Daily close ZB! Right at key level
Barely budged
Liquiditation event or whatever
Yields relatively stable and will be more so thanks to patriots in control and falling oil
The bond-credit correlation just flipped positive again.
When this correlation turns positive, policy & financial shocks dominate growth shocks.
Markets are pricing Fed policy uncertainty more than the real economy shock.
Tightening regime signal.
The way around it is still the long way. Gulf hub is still a blowout.
US lanes are mixed but exporter-favorable.
Running it thru with Claude on @JamesYo43532848 KYSID equation; demand destruction and rerouting wearing de-escalation’s clothing, not chokepoint clearing. If anything the Fujairah spread is the marginal deterioration this week. Against the hike-priced baseline, the constraint term gives you no cover to soften
🫡 @ed_fin
@DrKutney@ThomasBeyer@SkylineReport How do you accommodate for PDO let alone ENSO cycle variance on the impact of global weather?
Oh condescension based on my profile for fintwit? Very big of you