empty_cup

#ibreakforbirders

opinions expressed, not financial advice

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

Macro Monday chat with @TraderBillyAU, @deerpointmacro @DannyDayan5 & @EconstratPB

https://t.co/RTeri8iUxp

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@TheEconRebel I’m out of my depth when it comes to you guys so I might be entirely incorrect.

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@julie_wade Bonds are chill.
Daily close ZB! Right at key level

Barely budged

Liquiditation event or whatever

Yields relatively stable and will be more so thanks to patriots in control and falling oil

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

I was a little early

[Julie Wade @julie_wade]

5 DAY 3
STOPPED ON A DIME
ARE YOU SEEING THIS??????
$VIX = 21.15

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@HunterBiden @aaronjames619 One day at a time

[Deer Point Macro @deerpointmacro]

The bond-credit correlation just flipped positive again.

When this correlation turns positive, policy & financial shocks dominate growth shocks.

Markets are pricing Fed policy uncertainty more than the real economy shock.

Tightening regime signal.

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@DrJStrategy Banger

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@TheEconRebel Isn’t the non-tran lead by housing if I recall from James young ?

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@julie_wade But before the roll can we not rip up risk on?

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@julie_wade

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

The way around it is still the long way. Gulf hub is still a blowout.
US lanes are mixed but exporter-favorable.

Running it thru with Claude on @JamesYo43532848 KYSID equation; demand destruction and rerouting wearing de-escalation’s clothing, not chokepoint clearing. If anything the Fujairah spread is the marginal deterioration this week. Against the hike-priced baseline, the constraint term gives you no cover to soften
🫡 @ed_fin

[Ed Finley–Richardson @ed_fin]

🫡

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@25_cycle @DrKutney @ThomasBeyer @SkylineReport I am saying show statistical significance of observable data.

I am saying ocean dictates atmosphere

I am saying don’t be a cunt

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@25_cycle @DrKutney @ThomasBeyer @SkylineReport Explain how you obtained observed temperatures before they existed

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@25_cycle @DrKutney @ThomasBeyer @SkylineReport For starters.
Thanks for also being a dick

2.) see my initial claim. Ocean dictates atmosphere.

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@mcm_ct_usa Your political bias and hatred for trump has made your contribution to fintwit negative

I wish you well

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@DrKutney @ThomasBeyer @SkylineReport How do you accommodate for PDO let alone ENSO cycle variance on the impact of global weather?

Oh condescension based on my profile for fintwit? Very big of you

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@DrKutney @ThomasBeyer @SkylineReport Pollution is bad.

Yes.

We can all agree on this.

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@DrKutney @ThomasBeyer @SkylineReport No I didn’t ask. Burden of proof for statistically significance.

Red herring of credentials means little to me

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@EYECANTFAIL

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@BenKizemchuk Mmmhmmm

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@MichaelPBento

[empty_cup @B2Balzer]

@DrKutney @ThomasBeyer @SkylineReport Burden of proof is upon you.