BREAKING:
The Ethereum Merge has been scheduled for TTD 58750000000000000000000
This is approximately Sept 15-16th
The Merge is officially scheduled π
COGS + SG&A outpacing revenue at big box retailers prob means even higher prices in the future --> force more consumers to shift to lower cost categories --> even higher unwanted inventory level, not a good cycle
5. Anchor liquidation + liquidity dry up everywhere is apparent once de-peg is past the point of no-return. 20% yield don't mean a thing if there's a CHANCE of stablecoins going to 0
7. A match is nothing without a fuse and a fuse is nothing without a bomb, similar to the past episodes in FX markets, many focus on "attackers", even if these attackers existed, they are merely a match/fuse.
4. however, the whole arbitrage operation takes at least 3-4 confirmations and 30+secs to execute (+capacity), and if arbitragers believe LUNA price will decline significantly in the meantime (anchor liquidation), it makes way more sense/efficient to short LUNA instead.
even though we warned against the UST depeg risk back in March, https://t.co/L7ac0i0vOP
still saddened to see many ppl affected, and here is my takeaways
3. for example, when UST de-peg, arbitragers *should* buy UST off-chain, convert to LUNA to receive (1- swap fee) on-chain, then sell LUNA to pocket the pricing difference
2. the terra/UST design underestimated the market forces (especially from sentiment)/inherent leverage within the system, relying on arbitragers' profit incentive for stabilizing UST, which can turn very quickly
1. luna/UST + anchor was (and still is) an innovative project in our book, it combines several defi components including algorithmic stablecoin / dex / lending /yield farming though its complexity/interdependencies contributed to its demise