As I said in yesterday's #gold cycle map, “If we can see a swing-low emerge, that low can be used as a protective stop for any long positions.”
Today's candle should give us that swing-low on $GDX. A day 40 low is long, but certainly not unheard of.
A more conservative entry can wait for price to close back above the MA10.
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$SPX upd:
-Big picture remains unchanged: I am expecting a bear market with a buyable 3.5Y cycle low around Q3
-See below Dec 2024 projection with updated price
-20W cycle low came on time (1 day after ideal date of Mar 27 in pinned post)
-I didn’t expect new ATH: I thought we’d reject around golden pocket retracement. Between CTA mechanical bid and Trump playing the market like violin we have the blow off top I was expecting in Feb, market always finds a way to laugh at you
-The new 40d cycle is 1/2 way through and next week should tell us whether this rally has more upside or terminates here
-For my base bear case I had Apr 17 as turn date, but so far no signs of a slowdown in buying yet. Opex often provides a pivot in the cycle - or a few days after it.
-Based on Hurst method we still have potential several % more upside in $SPX which I’m not chasing as just like in Feb when I exited the market RR for a trader like me who likes holding positions for several months is not great and we have weekend headline risk.
-Timing wise next 40d low is due ~May 7 which should give us more info on the structure (depth of a pullback and strength of a bounce into late May) which then sets up bigger decline into a higher degree summer low.
-Leading indicators showing bigger decline is still ahead in a few weeks so staying cash heavy.
-If you want more updates - like and retweet
@chrislsavage@PeterLBrandt@grok This grok analysis is crap. The AUDUSD peaked with gold at 715. Pulled back to 681 (with gold ) and now trading at 716. If anything Peter is implying that gold could follow the AUD back to the ATH.
@ThrillTrades Bought at one third position on the breakout this morning at 1.69. Tight stop at 1.55. Similar chart pattern to URA and URMN. Possible 3 drives down breakout. RSI looks ok. OBV lagging a bit.
@nathans2024@ASX__Trader Kinda seem low. I get around 65. Unfortunately the ASX doesn’t track the housing index. They do in the USA.
Our commercial sector is down about 25%. Our company sold a factory last year and took about a 15% haircut.