Balance

Father, husband, business owner. Not financial advice.

[Balance @balanceaboveall]

@ContrarianCurse PDFs must be harder than the Millennium Prize Problems.

My kingdom for an AI that can extract data out of a PDF reliably and put it in a spreadsheet.

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@jaymesrosenthal Er
Meh
Gerd

This is incredible! The hip thrust, the lip sync, 10/10.

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@choffstein Corey not trying to bait you, serious question, why do you guys care if there are options on your ETFs? Is it so people can hedge?

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@Mrs_Carny @NikLentz Happy Birthday!

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@rennyzucker @stevehou What is the alternative? How do we catch up in the litho race without $INTC?

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@SoundDobad You have any idea how much a transgender sensitive, climate conscious bridge with a mosque in the middle costs? GTFOH, never happening.

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@KarstResearch @AmstelLight I haven’t had an Amstel in a long time, I’m gonna buy some for tonight. See it’s already working…

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@NikLentz @dampedspring Try “The Gray Man” series by Mark Greaney. Also the “Orphan X” series by Gregg Hurwitz.

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Agreed, that said the use of 3rd party compute because they can’t scale the internal infrastructure fast enough would seem marginally bullish $NVDA.

I work in the industry, nothing is slowing down. If anything it’s speeding up. The competition for hardware and datacenter capacity for smaller companies (start up neoclouds, enterprises with GPU needs) has become a knife fight. There’s simply not enough to go around.

There was a time earlier this year that I thought we were coming close to the end of this run, 1999 in the Dotcom analogy. Slowly coming around to the idea that we might be in 1996.

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@realroseceline Best and worst investment you ever made?

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MMT is basically what my wife calls “girl math” dressed up in a professor’s clothing.

If you pay cash or on a pre-loaded card the transaction is free.

Anything that costs under $5 is free.

If you purchase an item on sale you saved the difference between the original price and the sale price.

The price of a dress should be mentally cut in half because it takes the place of a shirt and pants.

Spending more money to go over the free shipping threshold is the only reasonable choice.

If you budgeted for a vacation and you don’t take it that dollar amount is automatically added to the budget for your next vacation.

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They didn’t finish the job, that’s a big part of the reason why we are where we are right now.

So would you consider Warsh serious about price stability if we a) continue to see inflation trending down and b) he doesn’t cut rates until we are at or below 2%?

If not what would make you believe he is serious about price stability?

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I don’t think Warsh believes rates need to go up (neither do I), I also don’t think that he believes they need to go down (same). He would be justified in that view based on the print we just got.

As I mentioned to Brent I will believe that Warsh is serious about price stability if he holds the line on rates until we are back at 2%. Not 2.5%, not 2.2%, 2% or lower. And I would consider that a change in policy given that the Fed cut in 2024 on a 2.5% YoY print.

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@BlacklionCTA Powell cut in September of 2024 on a 2.5% YoY print.

If Warsh holds the line until we are at or slightly below target I would consider that a change in policy.

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I don’t recall him ever saying that the Fed will immediately change policy to ensure price stability. He’s been very critical of the Fed being over target for 5 years and very vocal about having no tolerance for persistently high inflation.

So let’s see what he does. If he holds rates steady into decreasing inflation prints until such time as the inflation rate is back at target then I would consider him serious about restoring price stability.

We’ll see what we get.

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Agreed, but he can’t be expected to have it fixed in a month, and given the inflation print we just got holding was the right call. The story hasn’t been written yet but that print bought him some time.

The real test comes when it is obvious to everyone that a hike is required. We aren’t there right now regardless of how strongly some people hold that opinion.

Let’s see how it develops, no reason to believe at this point that he isn’t serious about bringing inflation to target.

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@DoubleWideCap That things is smoking everyone, it’s like the other cars are standing still.

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@thoheck @sidprabhu Gentlemen it’s all about trimmed mean PCE now, May 26 12 month at 2.4%, round that down and we’re right at target. Start sending the money helicopters…

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@wesbury @AppleTV There’s an app called NordVPN, it let’s you VPN in to a server in over a hundred different cities. Pick the city closest to where you are from in the US and you will appear to apps to be in that city. Apple TV will let you watch as if you are home.